Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271545
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
945 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.UPDATE...

Issued at 945 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

No big changes this morning as current headline is in good shape.
Dense fog continues across pretty much the entire area with the
exception of out near the Devils Lake basin. Conditions should
improve late morning or early afternoon as winds pick up with a
tightening pressure gradient.

UPDATE Issued at 658 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Fog cover much of the Red River Valley this morning. Will extend
fog advisory until noon. No other changes at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)

Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Water vapor loop indicated upper level trough was located over
northern AZ with an upper jet digging a secondary trough off the CA
coast. AZ low will move into northeast SD Mon night. Rain will move
into the southern zones by late this afternoon and will spread north
Sun night. May some snow mixed at the leading edge of precip and
snow for the western zones for tonight.

Fog was over much of MN and adjacent parts of eastern ND. Southeast
winds will bring fog/low cloud into the area today. Will keep fog
advisory for this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)

Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

The most significant period in the long term could be Wednesday as
our next winter weather system continues to slowly accumulate snow
over the forecast area with the surface low shifting into northeast
MN and northwest WI. The upper low should be between Duluth and
Minneapolis area with short waves rotating around the low bringing
continued spurts of snow over the region. As the surface low pulls
into northern Wisconsin Wednesday night, the heavier snowfall
should shift east of the valley. Accumulating snowfall should end
by Thursday morning however light snow or flurries may continue
into Friday with the cyclonic flow aloft bringing some weaker
shortwaves over the area. In general a couple of inches of
additional snowfall is possible from Wednesday morning to around
noon Thursday.

Some breezy winds will be a concern on Wednesday as the tighter
pressure gradient slides over the valley with the low departing to
the east. At the current time fairly unidirectional flow up to
H850 should produce 15 to 25 mph winds or a bit higher with
stronger cold advection behind the low. How much this impacts
surface visibilities will be dependent on how much snow falls
Monday and Tuesday, but some minor drifting is possible from the
falling snow alone.

By Thursday night into Friday the upper low finally moves off into
eastern Canada however the cyclonic flow continues aloft until a
ridge begins to slide over the area Friday night into Saturday.  This
will bring a dry weekend with daytime highs around the freezing
mark...and daytime highs will vary depending on snow depth
accumulated over the five days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)

Issued at 658 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

IFR conditions were across much of the area except the Devils Lake
basin with cigs under 1 thousand ft and visibilities under 1 mile.
Expect IFR conditions for the morning. Fog should lift by late
morning or early afternoon. However cigs will likely remain IFR
throughout today and tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ008-016-027>030-
     038-039-049-052-053.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lee
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Hoppes



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