Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151742
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Although clouds have expanded a bit farther south than anticipated
thinning continues so expect sct cloud cover by late afternoon.
Temperatures running cooler than curve however with thinning
clouds will not alter maximum temperatures. No other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 944 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Adjusted sky cover through the morning to account for sct-bkn sc
deck spreading southward. Do expect thinning by this afternoon but
will monitor. No other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Tweaked cloud cover for later this morning and early afternoon. No
other changes at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Upper level ridge over the Rockies will move east and
flatten over the Northern Plains by Sun and over the
Great Lakes by 12Z Tue. Upper level trough off the BC
coast will follow in tow and move into northeastern
Canada by the end of the period.  would expect
thunderstorms to occur on the periphery of elevated
mixed layer for Mon/Mon night. Upper level jet stays
north of the area through the period.

Water vapor loop indicated some drying/darkening
over northwest ND. Expect a mild day for today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

The active pattern is expected to continue for the most part through
the rest of the work week. The region will be stuck in zonal flow
aloft before transitioning to slightly more northwesterly flow
between an upper low near Hudson Bay and ridging continuing to build
across the southern CONUS. Numerous waves passing through the flow
will bring sporadic chances for precipitation/storms through the
remainder of the week (severe not out of the question but dependent
on the time of day and strongest forcing matching up). Not everybody
will see precipitation every day but at least daily PoPs are
reasonable for portions of the area throughout the period. As of
now, Thursday looks like the day with the best chances of being dry
for most.

Following Monday`s warmth, temperatures should turn a bit more
seasonable with highs in the 80s and lows in the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

MVFR cigs should continue to lift and become more sct vs bkn by
mid afternoon. By evening VFR conditions expected across the
region continuing for the remainder of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Voelker



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