Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261135
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

With showers diminishing over the northeastern counties lowered
POPs a bit in those areas for the rest of the morning. A few spots
are still 2SM in visibility so kept a patchy fog mention for just
a bit longer but it should be gone soon as west winds move into
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The timing of precipitation continues to be the main headache for
the period.

The main upper low continues to spin near the Montana/North Dakota
border, with one lead shortwave currently moving through the CWA
and setting off storms in our eastern counties. That shortwave
will quickly move off to the northeast this morning, and with the
main surface low over southern Canada, think that it will be a bit
quieter today with only a few showers near the international
border. Clouds and precip will keep highs in the north near 70
while the southern counties will see readings again near 80. By
this evening however, the main upper low will be coming east, and
models have some precip developing in central ND and moving into
our western counties. Bumped up POPs in that area for the evening
but think that after midnight the better precip chances will be
further south over ABR/MPX`s areas with the low level jet. With
clouds lows should stay in the 50s.

Friday, the main upper low will still be wobbling over the
Northern Plains with an inverted surface trough over the eastern
CWA. Models bring a decent vort up into our eastern counties so
have some fairly high POPs going during the day, although exact
timing is a bit uncertain still. Highs Friday should stay in the
upper 60s to mid 70s with precip at times across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Friday night through Saturday night...The models start to diverge
on the exact timing of weak shortwaves coming through the
southwesterly flow aloft, which is to be expected with these type
of features. For now just broadbrushed some high chance POPs.
Clouds and precip will keep lows in the 50s and highs in the low
to mid 70s for Saturday.

Sunday through Wednesday...Split flow remains over North America
with northern stream over Canada and southern stream over the
States. Long wave pattern transitions from a relatively high
amplitude to a zonal flow by the end of the period.

The ECMWF was a faster solution than the GFS. The two models were out
of phase after Sun. The GFS was trending slower while the GFS was
oscillating around. Will prefer the ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Stratus of IFR to low MVFR cigs continues across all but KFAR this
morning, but should eventually lift up to the north as the surface
low moves into Canada. Conditions should improve to low VFR by mid
morning and then think the deck should scatter out by this
afternoon. Winds will be from the west to southwest at around 10
to 15 kts. Tonight have winds becoming light and variable. Some
patchy fog formation will again be possible but not confident to
include at any one TAF site at this point. Some MVFR cigs will
begin to move back into the KDVL area by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Hoppes
AVIATION...JR



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