Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221803
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
103 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Have increased pops over a small area of SE ND vcnty Fargo and
Valley City where a small enhanced area of -sn producing vsby at
times at or below a mile. Expect this to shift eastward with snow
lasting around an hour or so.  No other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 930 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Although no ground truth as of yet, some weak returns showing up
across s central ND propagating east so will keep low end pops
going. Temperatures on track. No changes necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Adjusted sky grids to match timing trend with current westward
advancing cloud deck. No other changes needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Challenge for today will be temps and slight chance for some warm
air advection precip as return flow from departing high pressure
commences across the forecast area. Winds will become breezy
today as SFC high slides across the Great Lakes region and broad
low pressure area develops across the western High Plains
increasing the pressure gradient across the area. Models continue
to show less QPF this aftn with weak WAA. Have maintained some
slight PoPs in the slowly moving across the FA from west to east
today. Thinking most areas will see just a flurry or sprinkle at
best. Mixing under the increasing cloud cover will be limited to
around 925mb with steep inversion. Should see winds steadily
increase to 20 to 25kt sustained for the valley and west with
gusts to around 30kt today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

By Thursday morning the lead wave with the southwest flow aloft
brings PoPs into eastern North Dakota. With the warming thermal
profile any precip will be liquid with highs reaching into the
mid 40s Thursday. Forcing appears to be strong with 700mb
frontogenesis setting up along a southwest to northeast line.
Placement of the band and its tenth to two tenths of precip
remains in a bit of a flux and will need to be refined as the time
range ahead of the event decreases. Winds to turn to the
northwest and rain shower chances slide off to the south and east
over night Thursday into Friday morning. A few wet snow flakes
will be possible as the column cools Friday morning. Highs Friday
are expected to be near to Thursdays as solar will offset the
cooler temperature column.

Saturday will be dry in the 500 mb ridge north of a large 500 mb low
in Kansas.  The 500 mb low in Kansas will move east and be replaced
by another low.  Meanwhile in our region a 500 mb short wave trough
will move in the northern stream from Montana into south central
Canada.  00z GFS is much more robust with this than the 00z
ECMWF/GEM and attm prefer the less robust pattern.  But still there
will be chances for light rain Sunday, exiting Monday morning.  Rain
amounts quite light...under one tenth and not a significant issue.
Temperatures Saturday to Tuesday will run a tad above normal with
highs mostly 40s and lows 30-35. So overall a pretty good melt
process.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Lowered cigs/vsby at FAR for a couple hour period as a small
enhanced area of -sn will be moving through. Otherwise general VFR
cigs anticipated. DVL has a better chance of MVFR cigs later this
afternoon into the evening based on upstream cloud heights.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/Riddle
AVIATION...Voelker



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