Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 030537

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Clearing continues across central North Dakota and could reach the
far western FA in a couple hours. Some guidance indicating that
stratus may develop if skies do clear so left the west cloudy.
Otherwise no other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 939 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Current forecast in good shape no changes.

UPDATE Issued at 621 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

No changes necessary.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

The main forecast challenge for this period will be whether or not
the clouds begin to decrease across the western FA on Saturday.
Either way this looks like a very narrow window, as clouds will
then begin to increase again ahead of the next system that comes
in Saturday night and Sunday. So overall not very confident any
breaks will occur across the western FA, it could well stay
overcast the entire time. Light winds will turn around to the
south on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Saturday night through Sunday...Models continue to be fairly
consistent on a shortwave and surface trough moving through Saturday
night. Heaviest precip will be out ahead of the system and well to
our south, but there should be enough forcing on the northern end of
things along the trough axis to keep 20-40 POPs going for the
period. Winds will be from the west behind the departing low, and
not much cold air advection behind the system. Temps will continue
to be above seasonal averages.

Monday and Tuesday...A strong upper trough digging down from Canada
will bring a change to our mild pattern. The GFS continues to be a
bit faster and weaker with the surface low and QPF as the system
lifts through the area Monday night and Tuesday. The ECMWF is more
robust with QPF and has a fair amount of snow possible across our
west and north. Still a lot of uncertainty, but will continue to
keep fairly high POPs. Increased winds for Monday night and Tuesday
above the blended solution as with a tight gradient and strong cold
air advection northwest winds should be strong. Depending on exact
timing of precip and winds some blowing snow isn`t out of the

Wednesday through Friday...The cold air should be firmly in place at
this time, and another reinforcing shortwave digging down into the
upper midwest will bring an additional shot of cold air. Temps
should be down closer to an average December, with highs in the
teens and lows in the single digits or lower if we have a lot of
snow. Models break out some light precip as the reinforcing
shortwave comes down Wednesday night into Thursday so have some low
POPs going for snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Cigs could get tricky across the DVL region early this morning.
Skies clearing across central ND and could reach DVL in a couple
hours. Some guidance hinting at IFR stratus developing if skies
clear. This site may go from MVFR to VFR and back to IFR in a
couple hours time frame. Otherwise remainder of the sites to
remain pretty close to current heights. Exception may FAR and GFK
which may see some low VFR cigs later tonight.




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