Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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484
FXUS63 KFGF 260815
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
315 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Main concern for this period will be min temps tonight, and frost
potential. Models are in good agreement and will use the blend for
main features. The upper low across northern Minnesota will
continue to slowly propagate east today, stalling across the
northern great lakes region tonight. Using 850mb temps as a proxy
for the airmass, and mixing to about this height leads to max
temps in the low 60s across eastern ND and mid 50s into Minnesota.
About 30 knots to mix from 850mb, which likely leads to wind
speeds just below advisory criteria. For tonight...with lighter
winds and clear sky expect decoupling, with min temps dependent
on dew point values. Upstream dew point values are in the mid to
upper 30s, and expect Tuesday morning temps to be near these
values along and west of the valley (which could lead to patchy
frost).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Tuesday-Wednesday...The upper low propagates south into the Ohio
valley as upper ridging builds into the region. Nearly calm winds
Tuesday night should lead to the coldest temperatures this period.
Not sure exactly how cold, but likely a good chance for frosty
conditions in some places. Otherwise, dry weather and slightly
warmer temps into mid-week.

Thursday-Sunday...Upper level ridging  will persist across the
region on Thursday providing another day with plenty of sunshine.
The main ridge axis will begin to move off to the east Thursday
night with breezy southerly flow to returning.

As the ridge slides further east, southwest flow aloft will set up
late in the week. The GFS depicts a few weak waves passing through
producing a little bit of QPF across the western forecast area on
Friday and Saturday. The latest run of the ECMWF also picks up on
some QPF but keeps it further west across western North Dakota.
Therefore, will continue with a dry forecast for now through
Saturday.

Sunday will bring the next best chance for precipitation as an upper
trough digs into the Pacific Northwest with several additional waves
rounding the trough progged to impact the area. However, the
timing/confidence in these chances are yet to be ironed out.

Relatively little change in thermal profiles late in the work week
and into the weekend will keep high temperatures just slightly above
normal (upper 60s to low 70s) with mild lows in the upper 40s and
low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

The MVFR ceilings are finally only impacting KBJI, with some VFR
level clouds further west towards the Red River Valley. The MVFR
ceilings will hang around the east as the upper low continues to
slowly move across the area, so KBJI will not go VFR until later
tomorrow morning. Even the VFR clouds will eventually clear out
during the day tomorrow across the western four TAF sites. Winds
are around 15 to 20 kts and will pick up during the late morning
with some gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range. Winds will go down again
by evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/Lee
AVIATION...JR



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