Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
641 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Adjusted cloud cover a bit for high cirrus over the southern and
eastern CWA, but no other changes for the morning update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Precip chances and strength will be the main forecast issue for
the period.

Water vapor loop shows the upper trough rotating over southern
Canada, with a fairly vigorous shortwave digging down through
Saskatchewan. The models are in good agreement on this shortwave
coming down into our northwestern counties by late in the day.
This will help push a surface trough into the CWA, with some
convective activity along it during the afternoon. Models have
been trending a bit slower with bringing precip into the area,
keeping most of the activity over our northwestern counties
through 00Z. A few of the models develop a narrow band of 1000
J/kg CAPE by 00Z, but it is short lived and deep layer bulk shear
is weak. PWAT values are also expected to be around 0.5 to 0.75
range with the best moisture staying to our south. Thunder will
be a possibility but not expecting anything too strong at this
point. The showers and isolated thunderstorms will swing further
south and east during the evening hours as the upper shortwave and
surface trough axis rotate through.

As for temperatures, with showers holding off until later in the
day we should climb into the low to mid 70s in most areas.
Northwest winds along with clouds and precip will keep lows
tonight near the 50 mark.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Sunday and Monday...The upper low will begin to dig into northern
MN, with decent model agreement on one vort lobe coming down the
backside of the trough on Sunday and another reinforcing shortwave
arriving on Monday. Will continue to keep chance POPs, mostly
showers by Monday as even MU CAPE will be pretty minimal by that
point. Northwest surface winds will be rather breezy during the
period thanks to a good pressure gradient, so bumped up the winds
a bit above the blended solution. Those winds will help knock
back high temps into the 60s maybe low 70s on Sunday, but even
cooler air arrives on Monday with the second shortwave. Highs
could stay below the 50s to low 60s most of the day with breezy
and cloudy conditions.

Monday night through Friday...The impacts from the upper level
trough will move and clouds will decrease. Large high pressure
will build in for Tues night into Thursday with dry weather and
temperatures a bit below normal. Friday will see an upper level
trough move into the area with a slight chance for precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

VFR conditions will continue throughout the period. Scattered
showers and even a possible thunderstorm will move into the KDVL
area after 21Z and further east after 00Z. Given the hit and miss
nature of the activity and unknown factor if showers will affect
TAF sites will leave a mention out for now. Winds will increase
out of the southwest by late morning with some gusts up to 20 kts,
then shift around to the northwest by the end of the period.




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