Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240236
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
936 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Adjusted pops for convection in west central Mn. No other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Uncertainty with storm potential continues. So far all is quiet
however still have upper wave tracking across S MB, cold front
through the western FA along with modest cape and instability.
HRRR continues to hint at development along cold front over SE ND
and adjacent west central MN where cape highest and still a
possibility so will continue to monitor closely. For this hesitant
to trim back on any pops. Only minor changes at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Main forecast challenge is convection from now through early
evening, and mainly the severe weather potential. Only one area
of convection is still holding together from earlier today, and
that area is moving up into the Lake of the Woods to Bemidji
corridor. On its current pace it should exit the FA by 5 pm. The
upstream cold front has moved into central ND, with some gusty
west-nw winds behind it. Main question remains whether any
convection can fire between the departing convection over the NE
FA and the eastward advancing cold front.

This area has been worked over pretty well today, and so far any
small cells that have tried to form have not held together.
Therefore confidence is pretty low that anything will re-fire over
this area late this afternoon into the early evening. Nice drying
is evident on water vapor imagery moving into eastern ND, however
there are some MVFR ceilings along the cold front. So there will
be SCT-BKN clouds around until the cold front passes, then skies
should clear. There may be some gusty west winds behind the front,
mainly over the Devils Lake to Valley City corridor for a few
hours prior to sunset. Sunday should be a dry day with gusty west-
nw winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Sunday night and Monday...Northwesterly flow aloft will set up
behind the departing upper wave, with flow becoming more zonal
during the day on Monday. Surface high pressure will be building
into the area and other than a few lingering showers Sunday evening,
the region should get a respite from precipitation. Temps should
return to above normal values in the mid to upper 80s for Monday.

Monday night through Saturday...The brief tranquil period will come
to an end Monday night as the next shortwave trough begins to move
into the area. Zonal flow will become more northwesterly through the
work week as various weak shortwaves dig down into the upper
midwest. Exact timing and placement of these shortwaves is
impossible at this point so will continue to keep low POPs going
through most of the week. There should be a drying trend towards the
end of the period as the upper ridge axis shifts further east. Temps
will be near to slightly below seasonal averages through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

General VFR conditions with T chances continuing next several
hours from valley east. Once fropa passes VFR. Will monitor for BR
potential later tonight once T threat passes.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Voelker



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