Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A weak shortwave has helped some radar returns and mid level
clouds develop over central ND, and there have been some reports
of a few spits. Showers are on a track to clip the western Devils
Lake Basin, so put in some low POPs in that area for a time this
afternoon. Temps are climbing well even with more clouds than
expected so will keep the highs we have going.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Surface ridging will provide generally quiet weather today and
tonight, with not really any impacts expected. Day time
temperature will be cooler than yesterday, but still went a bit
warmer than guidance considering recent model biases and solar
expected. A lead shortwave and associated forcing ahead of the
next upper wave could produce showers late tonight, especially
across northeast North Dakota (925mb temps fall to near 0C by 12z
Saturday just north of the Canada/North Dakota border...might be
some snow mixed in for a bit...but accumulation not expected).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Saturday...Upper wave across the PAC NW CONUS will propagate into
the great lakes region by Sunday. 00z NAM becomes slower and
deeper than other guidance, and the 00z Canadian is further south
than other guidance. According to the PMDHMD, these are usual
biases. Will follow the 00z ECMWF and 00z GFS solutions, which are
in good agreement. Confidence is slightly above average. Strongest
forcing will be across the SE ND into west central Minnesota
(closer proximity to left exit region of upper jet streak and
potential for enhanced mesoscale forcing), where 0.25 to 0.50 inch
of rainfall expected (with locally higher amounts dependent on
mesoscale forcing). P-type expected to be mainly liquid, although
there is the potential for snow as the rain comes to an end
Saturday night (depending on how quickly the low level colder
airmass advects into the region). Considering the warm ground
temperatures leading into this event, do not expect any snow
accumulation or resultant impacts.

Sunday-Thursday...On Sunday temperatures will be near normal in
and west of the Red River Valley with temperatures a few degrees
cooler east of the Red River Valley. It will be dry during the day
and at night on Sunday as the system will have moved to the east.

Monday through Friday ridging aloft will result in dry weather. Both
high and low temperatures during the work week will be a few degrees
above normal. A short wave over the Canadian Prairies is still in
the forecast for Wednesday. Based on current model guidance this
feature will not result in any precipitation south of the
international border.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A few showers over central ND are headed towards our forecast area
this afternoon but think they will remain west of KDVL. More
rain will move in later tomorrow morning but still some
uncertainty as to exactly which locations will be impacted so will
leave off of the TAFS. Did include increasing VFR clouds. Some
MVFR ceilings are not out of the question, but think the lower
decks will hold off until after the 18Z TAF period. Winds will
become light and variable this afternoon and night, then steady
out of the east to southeast at less than 10 kts.




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