Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1253 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Line of showers now extends from the Devils Lake basin down
through the Minnesota lakes region but continues to decrease in
intensity with just some sprinkles/very light rain reported for
the most part. Hi-res models continue this trend as it tracks to
the north and east through the afternoon so adjusted PoPs

Models still picking up on another area of precipitation moving
into western North Dakota later this afternoon in association with
a wave currently out across eastern Montana. This precipitation
still looks to graze just the far northwestern forecast area late
afternoon and into the evening but any amounts should be fairly

Temperatures continue on track for the afternoon with the far
northwest still struggling to get out of the 40s while the
southeast is heading towards the mid to upper 50s.

UPDATE Issued at 1009 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Main update this morning was to decrease high temperatures 3-5
degrees across the far western forecast area and extend the
mention of drizzle/fog into the early afternoon. Elsewhere,
temperatures should be able to rebound a bit more and reach into
the mid to upper 50s.

Area of showers nearing the North Dakota/South Dakota line as of
15z and should enter far southeastern North Dakota within the next
1-2 hours.

UPDATE Issued at 651 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Still have fog and drizzle mainly along and west of the Red River
Valley. Will keep it mentioned through mid morning, which should
be good since vsbys have been holding mainly above two miles now.
High resolution model guidance continues to show the band of pcpn
over central SD lifting into the FA by mid to late morning and
continuing into the afternoon. This will bring relatively minor
pcpn amounts.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The rain is quickly moving off to the northeast and should be out
of the FA in the next few hours. Only seeing pcpn being reported
at Fosston up toward Baudette. Otherwise the next issue is fog and
drizzle. Fog has spread into areas along and west of the Red River
Valley, with a few stations reporting drizzle in this area too.
Will go ahead and mention fog in the forecast for areas along and
west of the Red River Valley through mid morning, along with a few
sprinkles. Visibilities are widely variable, with some sites 5 to
6 miles, and others down to around a mile or so. The gusty north
wind should prevent any dense fog, so the variable visibilities
will be more common.

Otherwise, the heavier rainfall potential has passed now. There
will be another wave that will lift northeast today, and spread
more light rainfall into the FA. This rain is currently over
southwest SD. High resolution models bring this up into the
southwest FA by mid to late morning and lift it northeast through
the day. These models generally have the pcpn thinning out as it
does so, meaning much lighter rainfall amounts for today. There
are differences in how fast this next batch of light rain will
move out later today into tonight, mainly due to where the dry
slot will be. At this point, at least the southern half of the FA
should dry out first. Skies may clear across the south tonight,
but wind speeds look to remain up. This should hold off any fog
formation, but will have to keep an eye on that.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Should see some sun again on Sunday, but it will stay on the cool
side. Models show a weak piece of upper level energy moving thru
the FA Sunday night associated with a jet streak. Most of the
models are showing some light pcpn possible with this feature.
Some of this light pcpn may linger into Monday as well. Highs
should moderate a bit on Monday, getting back closer to normal.

For Tuesday through Friday...Long wave trough remains over
western North America. Trough does deepen a bit through the
period. Long wave ridge builds a little over eastern North America
through the period. Both ridge and trough sharpen a bit through
the period.

The GFS was a faster solution than the ECMWF. Both the ECMWF and GFS
were trending faster over the last couple model runs. Will blend the
models. Front expected to move through the area late Tue and upper
trough early Wed. Another upper trough is expected Fri.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Visibility restrictions in fog continue to improve across the
area while clouds are expected to remain. IFR ceilings to continue
into the afternoon before gradually lifting to MVFR. Weakening
band of showers tracking from southwest to northeast this afternoon
will continue to decrease in intensity so included just a few
hours of VCSH. Another area of showers moving in from western
North Dakota might just skirt KDVL later this afternoon and
evening but they should be just on the edge so didn`t include in
the TAF at this time.




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