Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131200
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ONT/MAN BORDER WILL HAVE
VORTICITY LOBES ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. ONE LOBE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR TO
FOLLOW SUN NIGHT. ALSO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN MN. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND WAS BUILDING AND SHIFTING EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AFTER MON MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FLATTENS AND MOVES EAST BY 84 HOURS. GFS, ECMWF AND NAM WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THE NAM SLIGHTLY FASTER AND THE GFS SLOWER. WILL USE THE
GFS AND ECMWF.

CLOUDS OVER MAN WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS WILL GO
COUPLE DEGREES LOWER FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

AREA RADARS SHOWING FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MAN. WILL ADD IN LOW
POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES. TWEAKED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH
LITTLE CHANGE. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHEAST ZONES EARLY
THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

QUIET MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WEDNESDAY SLOWLY
SLIDING EAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT 500 MB TROUGH ENTERING THE
NRN ROCKIES.  TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER THAN
GFS/ECMWF WAS SHOWING EARLIER...THUS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
HOLD OFF TIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  GFS HAS REMAINED THE
STRONGEST WITH MOST PRECIP WITH WAVE VS A BIT WEAKER ECMWF.  TEMPS
TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATED IFR CONDITIONS ROUGHLY FROM DTL TO
PKD TO BJI TO TVF TO DTL. AREA WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VFR CIGS ABOVE 5 THOUSAND FT WAS LOCATED NORTH OF THE ABOVE AREA AND
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MAN. PATCH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 30 KNOTS.
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MAN AND EXTENDED
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG AND WAS MOVING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST ABOUT 30 KNOTS. EXPECT MAN CLOUD DECK TO SETTLE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AND COVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO WINDS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING WITH 17 TO 23 KNOT WINDS. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY AS CLOUD DECK MOVES SOUTH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES






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