Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 282322
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING 3 TO 5 DEGREE WARMER HOURLY TEMPS
TONIGHT AND NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE WE WILL BE THAT MUCH WARMER THAN
PREV FCST...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TEMP UPDATES UNTIL 10 PM.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUN SETS AND LIGHT NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH THE GFS PERFORMING WELL OF LATE.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A
STORM EARLY...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE COULD
BE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH SOME HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

ON TUE/WED...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE VERY WEAK
THOUGH...SO IT MAY JUST BE SHOWERS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DRIED THINGS OUT SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH QPF. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAME WITH 500MB RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE RESULT FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS A RATHER PERSISTENT
FORECAST WITH THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER A SHORT WAVE WHICH ROUNDS THE
RIDGE ON THURSDAY. CHC OF STORMS THURSDAY WITH THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE TO BE REFINED WITH BETTER DETAIL WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
ANOTHER WAVE APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHC FOR
THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA...DURING INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS.
HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD TO BE PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES FROM 80...IN
LINE WITH NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR AND BREEZY NW WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BUT REMAIN 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. NW FLOW WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW AFTN.
VFR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD FOR VALLEY AND EASTERN
ND...HOWEVER TVF AND BJI MAY SEE LOWER VFR CIGS DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTN...AS WELL AS TS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE LATE AFTN AT BOTH
SITES AS STORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE IN NW AND W CNTRL MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER


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