000
FXUS63 KFGF 130251
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
951 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active pattern early to mid next week, with a 60% chance
  for areas to see over an inch in a three day period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A few weak radar returns starting to move into our northwestern
counties, but not much evidence of anything reaching the ground
quite yet. Probably will start seeing some sprinkles shortly,
but any amounts and impacts will be minimal as the weak
shortwave skirts through our northern counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A fairly extensive cumulus field developed today, but there are
already signs it has peaked, with thinning already ongoing. Have
seen a few hot spots on satellite imagery and radar (from localized
burns), mainly around the Glacial Lakes area east of Crookston.
There are high thin cirrus spreading into the FA, and more mid level
clouds moving into portions of western North Dakota. For this FA,
expect the mid level clouds over western North Dakota and southeast
Saskatchewan to drift in, mainly along and north of highway 2
tonight. Surface winds start out light, but turn around to the
southeast late tonight into Saturday morning. There is even a small
(less than 20 percent) chance for showers within this cloudy area
overnight.

Have been monitoring the fire weather potential for this weekend.
There have been a few things of note starting with Saturday. First,
the weak clipper system that will bring the low chance of showers
late tonight will linger into the day Saturday (again, mainly along
and north of highway 2). Think there will be virga along with these
showers (which should be high based). So like the past few days,
these could mix some gustier winds to the surface at times, but
don`t think it would widespread. The surface low looks pretty weak
overall, and maybe even a little further south now. As the
traditionally better mixing period kicks in by later morning through
the afternoon, the best push of south-southwest winds pushes east of
the FA. As winds turn northwest by mid to late afternoon in the
Devils Lake region and northeast North Dakota, there could be a
couple hours of 15 to 25 mph wind speeds to monitor. However, not
seeing a consistent overlap of low humidity and gusty winds, so will
not issue a Special Weather Statement to highlight fire weather
concerns on this shift. If these components look better, later
shifts can re-evaluate. For Sunday, not seeing any shower chances,
but ridging does push closer. Therefore do expect a pretty sunny
day. Sunday afternoon may actually have lower humidity than
Saturday, but again, the wind speeds look pretty minimal overall (10
to 15 mph for the most part). So again, will continue to monitor,
but will not message any fire weather issues at this point.

Have been watching a lead short wave kicking out into the Northern
Plains on Monday, which should be ahead of the main early to mid
week system. Will have to see how this one evolves, but it could
begin to wet portions of the area with a tenth to a quarter of an
inch of rain. The main system still appears to be in the later
Monday through Wednesday or Thursday time frame. This is a southwest
flow system, which should tap into much better moisture. There is
even a signal today for another 500mb low to wrap into the Northern
Plains in the later Wednesday/Thursday time period, prolonging
precipitation chances into Thursday. The NBM still places pretty
good (~60 percent) probabilities for over 1 inch of precipitation
over a 3-day period. There will be a lot of interesting things to
monitor with this system, from the potential for severe weather
(Monday/Tuesday) to maybe even some snow on the back side (Wednesday
night/Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions now and throughout the period, leaving winds the
main aviation concern. Many locations that are light and
variable this evening will pick up out of the south later after
06Z as low pressure develops to our west. Winds will shift to
the southwest, then northwest by the end of the period,
remaining mostly in the 10 to 15 kt range. There could be a few
light rain showers near the northern airports, but confidence is
not high in much reaching the ground so will leave out of the
TAFs for now.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...JR