Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280535
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1135 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

The initial heavier rain band is lifting north of the Interstate
94 corridor now and is arriving in the highway 2 corridor. Seeing
some vsby improvements at Fargo now, but Grand Forks and Bemidji
will start to go down shortly. Web cams at Devils Lake still show
wet pavement, but at Binford ND it looks like snow is falling.
Forecast at this point looks fine and no changes are planned with
this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Monday)

Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Visibility issues are slowly improving across Minnesota lakes
country. Although a little bit of patchy fog might persist into the
late afternoon, conditions should continue to improve. Therefore,
will be able to cancel most of the Dense Fog Advisory with this
afternoon`s forecast update. Will hang on to southern Beltrami,
Hubbard, and Wadena counties for awhile longer with PKD and BJI
still going back and forth between 1/4 and 1/2 SM.

Low pressure centered near the Colorado/Nebraska border is on track
to deepen and slowly propagate northwards towards the Red River
Valley overnight. Latest global and short term model runs have
slowed down the onset of precipitation crossing into the southern
forecast area just slightly as the column takes awhile to
saturate. Therefore, tried to time PoPs to line up with this
thinking. Precipitation will spread from south to north overnight
and throughout the day on Monday as rain for the majority of the
area. Temperatures along and east of the valley will stay above
freezing tonight and warm into the low to mid 40s on Monday.

Things get a bit trickier across the Devils Lake basin in the
coldest air with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s/low 30s
tonight. Forecast soundings show the column cooling with the
potential for a brief period of some mixed precipitation. However,
the latest runs do cut back on the strength and longevity of the
above ground warm layer so thinking the transition to snow may
happen fairly quickly with not as much of a mix as previously
thought. Either way, have decided to with a Winter Weather
Advisory for this area to encompass any mixed precipitation along
with a couple inches of snow accumulation (most likely highest
across far western Benson county) before changing back over to
rain later on Monday as temperatures warm into the mid to upper
30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Above freezing air at the sfc to 850 mb will remain over most
areas through Monday night then start to cool slowly Tuesday. Thus
upper level low by Monday night will lose most of its moisture
source as drier air cuts it off the south but do expect areas of
light rain and drizzle. The light rain and drizzle to mix with
light snow or change to light snow from west to east later Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Colder air to flow into the area Wednesday and
all areas should see some light snow. Precipitation amounts
Tuesday into Wednesday around the upper low will be quite light as
moisture source is cut off. Thus no significant snow accumulations
are expected once the cold air does move in with general ideas of
under one inch expected Wednesday. Rest of the week will see the
upper trough move east and the airmass over the area trended a
bit closer to normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

The initial rain band is lifting out of KFAR and is heading
toward the other TAF sites. Vsbys dropped to about 2SM in KFAR
when the rain came through, so expect similar conditions at the
other TAF sites. Only question will be KDVL, which may start out
as rain and mix with and possibly change to snow shortly
thereafter. Web cams at Binford and New Rockford south of KDVL
appear to show it snowing. As temps warm during the day Monday,
KDVL should transition back to rain again. All other TAF sites
should just be rain. Winds are a little gusty now and should stay
that way overnight. Big question for most of Monday will be how
much improvement occurs. Model guidance keeps low clouds around
all day, but KFAR is already higher than model guidance. Otherwise
looks like off and on rain through the day too, but vsbys should
be fair.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Godon



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