Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261856
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1256 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NEEDED TO RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THIN STRATOCU ALSO FORMED IN
SRN VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT EARLY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS





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