Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 060544
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOG AREA HOLDING STRONG IN A NARROW ZONE FROM FOSSTON-BEMIDJI THRU
DETROIT LAKES TO EBLOW LAKE MN. OTHERWISE INCREASING CIRRUS. TEMPS
HOLDING STEADY NOW MOST AREAS LAST FEW HOURS AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARM TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND STORM SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.

RATHER QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MILD CONDITIONS AND LOW
LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS RISE
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE VALLEY AND WEST THROUGH 00Z SUN. MAX TEMPS
TO BE REALIZED WITH WESTERLY SURGE OF THE SURFACE WINDS MIXING
DOWN WARM AIR ALOFT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE VALLEY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WILL HARDEN ANY NEW
SNOWCOVER OVER THE PAST WEEK FROM THE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

AS FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE COME
INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF RUNS. THE EC AND
GEM REMAIN THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE 500MB LOW TRACK WHEREAS THE
GFS/NAM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THE TRACK WILL NOT IMPACT WIND
POTENTIAL...JUST SNOW AMOUNTS.

UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECAST BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND SUBSEQUENT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WIND
POTENTIAL WITH MIXING OF 40 TO 50KTS TO AROUND 900MB COMBINED WITH
A STRONG PUSH OF CAA SUNDAY 12Z TO 18Z. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS REINFORCE
THIS IDEA INDICATING EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SFC. AHEAD OF THE CAA THE COLUMN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
IN E ND AND THE VALLEY TO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/FZRA AND
SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH RESPECT TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...CONFIDENCE DECREASES SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST SE ND AS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE OF
POSSIBILITIES. WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH DVL BSN AND VALLEY WITH
WINTER STORM IN EASTERN ZONES IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z MON. WITH
RESPECT TO SNOWFALL CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE IS AN 80
PERCENT CHC OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES...40 PERCENT CHC OF AT LEAST 4
INCHES AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 6 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE AND EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING NW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE SOME
POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW WITH ANY WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS...ONE
POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY. THE DIFFICULT...LESS CERTAIN PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE TEMPS AS PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE
WARMER AIR TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST WILL DETERMINE THE
MAX AND MIN FOR THE WEEK. CURRENTLY THE COLD DAY APPEARS TO BE
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHS IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...OTHER
DAYS HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S...A BIT COLDER THAN THIS
PAST WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

BEMIDJI WAS NEAR THE CLOUD-CLEAR BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND IS ON
THE EDGE OF THE FOG/LOW CLOUD AREA. THIS SHOULD LAST INTO PARTS OF
THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRYING TO CLEAR OUT. HOWEVER TIMING IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND LOW CIGS OR VSBYS MAY LAST TO PAST 12Z. OTHERWISE
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH MID OR HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOUTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SAT AFTN AND THEN SOUTHWEST SAT EVENING IN THE RRV
AND ERN ND WITH INCREASING SPEEDS PRIOR TO 06Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     NDZ008-016-027-029-030-038-039-049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.