Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280033
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
633 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Visibilities have improved across the Bemidji to Park Rapids to
Wadena corridor, so allowed the dense fog advisory to expire at 6
pm. There are still areas of fog east and west of the Red River
Valley which will probably hold together until the steadier rain
begins to move in later this evening. This rain is now across the
far southwest FA and lifting very slowly to the north-northwest.
Slowed down its movement northward just a tad more, having it
reach the Fargo Moorhead area by 02-03z and to the Grand Forks
area by 05-06z. Looks like this first wave of rain tonight should
bring about a quarter to a half an inch of rain to the entire FA,
with up to an inch or so of snow to the Devils Lake region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Monday)

Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Visibility issues are slowly improving across Minnesota lakes
country. Although a little bit of patchy fog might persist into the
late afternoon, conditions should continue to improve. Therefore,
will be able to cancel most of the Dense Fog Advisory with this
afternoon`s forecast update. Will hang on to southern Beltrami,
Hubbard, and Wadena counties for awhile longer with PKD and BJI
still going back and forth between 1/4 and 1/2 SM.

Low pressure centered near the Colorado/Nebraska border is on track
to deepen and slowly propagate northwards towards the Red River
Valley overnight. Latest global and short term model runs have
slowed down the onset of precipitation crossing into the southern
forecast area just slightly as the column takes awhile to
saturate. Therefore, tried to time PoPs to line up with this
thinking. Precipitation will spread from south to north overnight
and throughout the day on Monday as rain for the majority of the
area. Temperatures along and east of the valley will stay above
freezing tonight and warm into the low to mid 40s on Monday.

Things get a bit trickier across the Devils Lake basin in the
coldest air with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s/low 30s
tonight. Forecast soundings show the column cooling with the
potential for a brief period of some mixed precipitation. However,
the latest runs do cut back on the strength and longevity of the
above ground warm layer so thinking the transition to snow may
happen fairly quickly with not as much of a mix as previously
thought. Either way, have decided to with a Winter Weather
Advisory for this area to encompass any mixed precipitation along
with a couple inches of snow accumulation (most likely highest
across far western Benson county) before changing back over to
rain later on Monday as temperatures warm into the mid to upper
30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Above freezing air at the sfc to 850 mb will remain over most
areas through Monday night then start to cool slowly Tuesday. Thus
upper level low by Monday night will lose most of its moisture
source as drier air cuts it off the south but do expect areas of
light rain and drizzle. The light rain and drizzle to mix with
light snow or change to light snow from west to east later Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Colder air to flow into the area Wednesday and
all areas should see some light snow. Precipitation amounts
Tuesday into Wednesday around the upper low will be quite light as
moisture source is cut off. Thus no significant snow accumulations
are expected once the cold air does move in with general ideas of
under one inch expected Wednesday. Rest of the week will see the
upper trough move east and the airmass over the area trended a
bit closer to normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Looks like the main story for the TAFs will be low ceilings
throughout the entire 24 hour TAF period. Seeing some fog at
KBJI/KTVF/KDVL this evening, which will transition to more rain or
a mix of rain and snow later tonight. Visibilities hard to say at
this point, so went more of a 2 to 4 mile range as the pcpn moves
through. If the fog holds it could be lower, but will have to
watch and see. Only site that may mix with snow will be KDVL.
Winds look to stay fairly steady overnight, transitioning from
east to northeast with time. After the first band of rain lifts
out of the area tonight, there will still be lingering light rain
on Monday, with potentially better vsbys. However, hard to
increase them too much at this point, so just showed a slightly
better trend.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
     Monday for NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Godon



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