Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 021145
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWERS/THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEAR TO BE REMAINING WEST OF THE FA.
INCOMING CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR...CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
FA DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER MAY AFFECT SE ND THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS CANADA
TODAY...BRINGING A SFC TROUGH INTO EASTERN ND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLD/SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE. ANY
STORM WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KNOTS (AND
MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG).

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SAME IDEA ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT DEPENDENT ON
THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE IN THE SKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY
GIVEN EXPECTED SFC RIDGING...AND RETURN FLOW ONLY BEGINNING
SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND AS A
RESULT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...DEPENDING
HIGHLY ON CLOUD/SMOKE COVERAGE. FIRST UP WILL BE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
LIKELY TO PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FRONT TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL BY MIDWEEK. SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT NOTHING OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE IS APPARENT AND POPS ACCORDINGLY LOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH WEDNESDAY OFFERING A MORE
DISTINCT PRECIPITATION CHANCE. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE MID 50S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
ISOLD/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTIONING IN THE TAF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG


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