Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131521
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1021 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

FCST GOING AS PLANNED...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FCST
AREA IN AREA OF 850 MB WARM ADVECTION. 925 MB WINDS IN THE 25-30
KT RANGE 15-21Z WILL START TO GET TO THE SURFACE AS TEMPS WARM.
MAIN SFC LOW WEST OF BRANDON MANITOBA...MOVING EAST. RAIN SHOWERS
MOSTLY ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF REGINA SK AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT JUST NORTH OF
THE BORDER TONIGHT THEN OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AND ONTARIO
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH OF LOW WITH HRRR
SHOWING SOME SHOWERS LATER AFTN-EVE MOVING INTO NE ND/NRN RRV.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

NO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS
OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWFA ARE IN THE MID 20S AT 08Z. WITH CIRRUS
INCREASING AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO FALL MORE THAN 1 OR 2 DEGREES IN THE KVWU...KBJI...KBDO AND
KADC AREAS.

TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY. AS THE UNSEASONALLY COLD HIGH
MOVES SOUTH...LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY. THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND
WILL FOLLOW THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY...BLENDING
THE NAM/GFS FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TIMING OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED UPPER WAVE OVER
FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REACHING THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AROUND 18Z AND SPREADING EAST. NAM/GFS HAVE
SMALL AREA OF 0C SHOWALTERS AND SOME ML CAPE BUT WILL NOT MENTION
TSRA ATTM. WITH WELL MIXED LAYER TO AROUND 800 MB...35 KTS AT 850
IN THE NAM AND NEAR 30 KTS IN THE GFS TRANSLATE TO GUSTS CLOSE TO
30 KTS POSSIBLE. MOS HAS 27 KTS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR THE 18Z -
00Z PERIOD.

SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE...DROPPING ALONG THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
BORDER IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR KDVL AT 06Z TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW
SLOWS AND WRAP AROUND SHRA SPREADING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
CWFA INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COLUMN COOLS AND DRIES MOST AREAS SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING SHRA
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA...WITH STRONGER MID-UPPER
CAA ALONG SHEAR AXIS AND ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. THIS
QUICKLY MOVES OUT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
CWFA. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...BUT EXPECT
SUFFICIENT MIXING AT THIS TIME TO KEEP FROST/FREEZE RISK MINIMAL
FOR MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW MODEST WARM-UP MONDAY TO NEAR MID SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RISING
HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A MAINLY CLEAR
AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH A QUICK TRANSITIONING PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPS AS THICKNESSES
INCREASE WITH RIDGING OVER THE FA BY THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY PM OR
FRIDAY DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE...500MB SW FLOW AND 850MB LLJ
BRING INSTABILITY INTO FA FROM WEST TO EAST. WENT WITH A MOSTLY
SHRA AND ISO THUNDER FOR WX GRIDS AS SHOWALTERS DO BECOME NEGATIVE
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME HUMIDITY POSSIBLE BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH INCRG SOUTH WINDS. BY 16Z
EXPECT G25KTS MOST TAF SITES. WSHFT FCST AT KDVL ABT 22Z. WDLY SCT
-SHRA PSBL AFT 18Z...BUT INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN TAF
ATTM. -SHRA MOST LIKELY KDVL...KGFK...KTVF LINE AFT 21Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JK/EWENS
AVIATION...EWENS





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