Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1245 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Still quiet across the FA with echoes to the south drying up so
far as they have been moving northward. Still looking like a mid
to late afternoon start time for pcpn across the south, then
they have it working north through the late afternoon and
evening. The SPC day 1 outlook remained unchanged for the FA,
keeping most of it in a marginal risk. KFAR has already shot up to
77/65F, with other upper 60F dew points further south. This is
creating sfc based CAPE values of 1000-1500J/kg over the James
River Valley, and a fair amount of CIN on either side. This same
area has pretty much filled back in with clouds, while there are
now a few breaks of sun working into areas east of the Red River.
SPC HRRR has been waffling back and forth on any stronger storm
cells in this FA this afternoon. The latest run does not show
much strong development at all, so the jury is still out on that.
Rest of forecast unchanged.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Water vapor loop indicated an upper trough over WY and CO. Upper
level low was over southwest WY with short waves moving around the
system. One short wave over northeast CO. However an upper jet was
digging on the west side of CO trough and will form another trough
over the desert southwest. CO low shear off from the desert
southwest low on Sun.

CO trough forecast to move across the FA Sat night. 150+m height
falls forecast with upper low. Upper low forecast to open up once
low moves past the FA. Upper level jets remain on the east and west
sides of the trough for most of the period. Dry slot will move into
the area Sat night. However upper jet will dig on the west side of
the trough Sun afternoon through Mon. Wrap around precip will move
across the area Sun and Sun evening.

Precipitable water was around an inch and three quarters in the
northern zones and shift north this morning. Precipitable water
decreases aob one inch in the east zones this morning. Then rises
back over an inch and half this afternoon. MUcapes rise to 500 to
1000 j/kg this afternoon with more moisture moving in.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The only real concern throughout the long term will be the return of
precipitation chances late in the work week and lingering into the

The period begins with upper level ridging building into the western
third of the CONUS as a deep upper low continues to spin near the
upper Great Lakes. As the low digs south and east, the ridge axis
will gradually shift eastward bringing quiet and dry conditions to
the region through Thursday. The Canadian model does spit out some
QPF near the international border early Thursday while other
synoptic models remain dry. However, will continue with a dry
forecast for this time frame with the ridge axis and surface high
parked right over the area. Model soundings show a dry column in
place with plenty of sunshine for both Tuesday and Wednesday before
moisture returns on Thursday with breezy southeasterly winds.

As the ridge breaks down and upper level southwest flow returns,
precipitation chances will also return for Friday and Saturday with
several embedded waves progged to pass through the area.

No real change in thermal profiles expected throughout the period as
slightly above normal temperatures continue...highs upper 60s to low
70s and lows upper 50s to low 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Winds have been a little slow to materialize in areas that had fog
earlier this morning. Most of the gusts have been at KFAR and
points southward. Main challenge for the TAFs will be any thunder
development this afternoon and evening. Tried to break down a 2-3
hour period that the SPC HRRR is showing the best chances being
during. Other than that, wind gusts should decrease during the
evening, but ceilings will be highly variable. Wrap around pcpn
and low clouds will roll back into the FA on Sunday.




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