Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 141304
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
704 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

TWEAKED WEATHER FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN STARTING IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND MON. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

TANDEM UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER ALTA AND NM WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS RESPECTIVELY FOR TODAY THROUGH
MON. LOW LEVEL JET IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY AND SEND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. DEPTH OF SURFACE BASED
MOIST LAYER INCREASES TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOVE
800 HPA IN THE NORTH AND TO 700 HPA IN THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION
TODAY WILL BE LIGHT WITH DRIZZLE MOST LIKELY IN WARM AIR MASS.
PRECIP WILL SWITCH OVER THE SNOW ON MON WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN.

SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. MILD MOIST AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SHIFT INTO MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
FOG, DRIZZLE AND A CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY IN
PREFRONTAL AIR MASS.

FOG LOOP INDICATED A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY EARLIER AND HAS FOR THE MOST PART FILLING IN.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FOG ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH NOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW MOVING FROM MN/WI OUT FURTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP THE
CONDITIONS QUIET BUT COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON KEEPING US DRY. THE SFC HIGH MOVES VERY SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO SLOWLY COME UP AND HIGHS TO GET
BACK INTO THE 20S. THE GFS BRINGS SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE ECMWF IS MORE MILD AND KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
WITH PRETTY HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...WILL KEEP
THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

MOSTLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG
AND CIGS BELOW 5 HUNDRED FT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT FOR THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY GO
BACK DOWN FOR THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
CIGS MAY COME UP A BIT LATER TONIGHT POST FRONTAL...BUT LIKELY STAY
MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES



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