Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 031907
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 107 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

IN THE NEAR TERM...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR
WEAK ECHOES OVER CNTRL ND. DEW POINTS IN THE REGION IN THE MID 20S
ARE A GOOD 10 DEG HIGHER THAN OVER EASTERN ND...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS
IN OUR WESTERN CWA ARE RISING. REGARDLESS...ECHOES ARE WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE INTO DRIER AIR. HAVE BEGAN DECREASING EASTWARD EXTENT
OF POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING LIGHT SNOW
OUT OF ALL EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN VALLEY THROUGH 00Z. BETTER
CHANCE WILL BE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SECOND WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHER SASK...AND HAVE USED A MODE BLEND BUT QPFS
LOOK LOW AND CANNOT FORESEE MORE THAN AN INCH...WITH THOSE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CLOUDS/TEMPS AND THEN A COUPLE OF WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND SE FA HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME
LOWER CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM KBJI TO KFAR TO OAKES. NORTH OF THIS
AREA CLOUDS ARE MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL...AND THIN IN SPOTS.
MORE UPSTREAM MID CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL ND AHEAD OF THE FIRST WEAK CLIPPER. AHEAD OF THESE CLOUDS
THERE MAY BE SOME SUNNY BREAKS THIS MORNING WHICH COULD PLAY A
LITTLE HAVOC WITH THE TEMP FORECAST. THE STEADY NORTH WINDS ARE
ALREADY BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS
FIRST WEAK CLIPPER. DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHT SNOW TO REACH THE KDVL
REGION UNTIL AROUND 18Z...THEN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL VALLEY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE LOW PASSES THROUGH. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING SOME POST FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING NEAR KMOT AT 06Z
THU SCOOTING INTO SE ND BY 12Z THU. THEREFORE HAVE LINGERED SOME
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THE FA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THU NIGHT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
HINGE ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE FA. NEXT WEAK
CLIPPER MOVES THRU THE FA ON FRI. 00Z MODELS HAVE SHIFTED ANY
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF
WHERE THEY WERE SHOWING IT YESTERDAY. NOW THE LIGHT SNOW MAY SKIP
THE KDVL REGION...MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF MN. NOT MUCH SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM EITHER AND WINDS
REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST BY FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY...LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE A SEASONABLY MILD
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BRING PATCHY SUNSHINE AND THAW TO
NEAR THAW CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MUCH OF
THE RED RIVER BASIN.

SUNDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS HAVE MERGED IN THEIR OVERALL PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF A NORTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS NOW DROP A LEADING TROF THROUGH THE CENTRAL RED RIVER
VALLEY AROUND 06Z ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THROUGH THE FORENOON HOURS. A MORE DEFINITIVE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURS THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED SURFACE
LOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA LATE IN THE DAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO TAPPER OFF ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BOTH MODELS NOW EFFECTIVELY CLEAR THIS
STORM SYSTEM FROM THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING ...WITH MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR THEN FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
LOWER VSBYS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...DK


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