Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171158

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
658 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Issued at 657 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Modified the sky conditions for the morning to fit current
satellite loop. Tweaked hourly temps with the additional cloud
cover. No other changes at this update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Upper level flow was progressive. Upper level trough over the
area will move east today. Upper level jet was on the south and
west periphery. Upper level ridge over eastern MT will shift
over the Red River Valley this afternoon.

Low level jet will be farther west today but will shift into the
area tonight. Respectable moisture transport is expected.
Showalters go negative in the southern valley. Water vapor loop
indicated an upper level low pressure system over OR. OR low
pressure system will move across the Northern Plains tonight and
bring a respectable chance for rain and some wet snow. An inch or
two of wet snow is possible near the Devils Lake basin and
northern central MN or north of Bemidji. Another short wave is
expected Wed night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Thursday-Sunday...Split flow pattern will set up. A fairly strong
model signal for widespread rain on Thursday with current
indications suggesting the rain shield will only brush the southern
forecast area. Remainder of period will be mostly dry. Temperatures
near normal values. Potential impacts appear minimal.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

MVFR cigs were located over the far northern zones. Much of the
rest of the forecast area was covered with clouds having cigs from
32 to 45 hundred ft. Satellite indicated holes were developing
over Nelson and Grand Forks counties. Cloud deck was moving to the
southeast at 5 to 10 knots. Expect MVFR cigs over the north this
morning. Cigs should slowly rise this morning and scatter out for
the afternoon. VFR conditions expected for the afternoon and
evening. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to develop after midnight
regional wide with the approach of the next upper level system.




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