Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 061805
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
105 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN SHORT WAVE NOW OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS...FEW
CU AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA STARTING TO FORM OVER KOOCH CO IN NRN MN
AND SUSPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THERE AND POINTS EAST. SOME CU
AS WELL ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH OF BEMIDJI DOWN TOWARD FERGUS
BUT DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN SHOULD LIMIT PCPN POTENTIAL IN FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT NEED TO WATCH.  OTHERWISE FCST IN FINE SHAPE.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND WILL UTILIZE
A BLEND THIS MORNING.

THERE IS ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL BE
BRIEF WITH THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION.

FOR TODAY...THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN AREAS...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THROUGH 15Z OR SO
GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING COMBINED WITH HIGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER FOR THE REGION WITH COOL
ADVECTION.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY...WITH CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG...SO SOME
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PROGGED SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT.
IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

FOR MON NIGHT...EXPECT SOME LINGERING CONVECTION MAINLY UNTIL
6Z...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER.

FOR TUE THROUGH SAT...EXPECT OVERALL DRY WEATHER FOR TUE-
THU...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

SCT-BKN CU FROM 2500 TO 4000 FT AGL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 00 TO 01 UTC...DISSIPATING SOON AFTER WITH LOSS OF SOLAR.
EXPECT ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT TAFS DRY.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST...GUSTING AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
TO 25 KTS BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...ROGERS






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