Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 252359
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS. ONE OVER NORTHWEST
WI AND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST ABOUT 15 KNOTS.  THE OTHER UPPER LOW
WAS OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ABOUT 5 KNOTS.

RADARS INDICATED PRECIP WAS DECREASING OVER FAR NORTHERN MN AND WAS
THE SAME OR INCREASING OVER EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN. WINDS
ADJUSTED UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

DEFORMATION BAND PCPN CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INTO THE EVENING. A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING IS EXPECTED WITH WEAKENING LIFT AND LESSENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. BY MORNING A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT MIST MAY LINGER
WITH POSSIBLY A WET SNOWFLAKE MIXED IN ACROSS THE DVL BSN.
MINIMUMS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MOSTLY UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

FOR TUESDAY A DRY DAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING IN NW MN AND SLOWING
ERODING FROM THE NE AS THE SHEAR AXIS IS REPLACED WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS UPPER 40S WHERE CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER...WITH LOW 50S IN THE MORE SCATTERED SKY COVERED
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH 500MB NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. PLACEMENT OF THE
CUTOFF WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN MOST PCPN CHANCES AS A STRONG POPS
GRADIENT IS FORECAST WITH DRY SFC AIRMASS ADVECTING FROM COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON ENE WINDS. PATTERN RECOGNITION
WITH THIS TYPICAL SPRINGTIME SET UP LIMITS PCPN TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE PM INTO THURSDAY PM. THUS WILL KEEP
POPS MENTION SOUTH OF I94 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE STRONGEST FORCING
REMAINING SOUTH OF THIS REGION. ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ENTERING THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL VALUES...IMPACTS MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS BETWEEN 10 AND
18 HUNDRED FT. VFR CIGS WERE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH CIG
BETWEEN 30 AND 45 HUNDRED FT. SOME IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES AND WEST OF FAR. ALSO SOME VISIBILITIES WERE AROUND
3 MILES OVER SOUTHEAST ND. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN ABOUT WHERE THEY
ARE AT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CIGS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND TUE. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST
OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA OR ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM DVL TO FFM BY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...HOPPES


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