Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231812

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
112 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

No further changes. Main shower push into far NW occurring 18z-20z
period then moving southeast from there. Short range models still
show a few showers on western edge of vort into the GFK-FAR area
later on this aftn/eve as well.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave/jet streak over east
central SASK. Short wave forecast to move southeast across
northwest MN this afternoon and evening. Precipitable water
rises to a little over an inch this afternoon and evening.
Short wave will produce showers and isolated thunder mainly
over the MN side for today and this evening.

Upper level ridge over the northern Rockies will move into the
Northern Plains Fri. Warm advection precip will move into the area
Fri and Fri night. Precipitable water rises to over an inch and a
half by Fri night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Saturday-Tuesday...Models in decent agreement indicating a stronger
signal for rain Saturday into Sunday. Details such as timing,
amounts, and location still uncertain. Guidance depicts the
responsible upper level wave will be slow moving, and heavier rain
could be possible (likely not excessive given lack of instability,
but maybe an inch or two). Dry weather expected to start the next
work week. Temperatures near normal values.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR thru the pd. Showers moving through the area this aftn/eve
will fall from cloud bases 8000 kt agl and higher...local 4000 kt
agl overnight.  Winds light...mainly east-southeast.




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