Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211905 AAD
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
105 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Monitoring fog redevelopment in the far northern valley. Adjusted
high temps slightly due to lack of clearing in the far north.
Despite some high clouds, we are still on target to reach record
or near record high temps at Fargo and in parts of the far
southern valley.

UPDATE Issued at 941 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Fog is slowly lifting, but patches of visibilities at 2 to 5 SM
remain along and northeast of a line from Cavalier to Grand Forks
to Detroit Lakes. May take another few hours to mix out completely
at some locations where daytime heating has been slow to commence.
Increased cloud cover a bit for the rest of the morning as clouds
are continuing to linger in the northeast and build in from the
southwest slightly faster than anticipated.

UPDATE Issued at 648 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Fog continues to be variable, but for the most part is east of the
Red River. It has been locally dense at times, but not for very
long. Still think it will slowly lift in most places by mid
morning, but fog is always tricky. The radar continues to show a
few echoes over the far northern FA, quickly moving to the east.
Have seen a few spots report a brief UP or unknown pcpn remark,
but overall not much is falling from these. Decreasing clouds are
spreading into eastern ND, so there will be some sun today before
more clouds begin to spread in later this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Forecast challenges will be fog this morning, pcpn chances and
type for the band of echoes currently moving through the Devils
Lake region, and possible record highs again today. Starting in
order, fog continues along and east of the Red River Valley early
this morning. There are a few spots of locally dense fog, mainly
on the edge of the low clouds/clearing, or from Grafton to
Bemidji, and down toward Park Rapids. However, even in these
areas, the vsbys have been bouncing around. There is also a mid
cloud deck moving into that area, which has helped limit fog
formation over eastern ND. So at this point, a dense fog advisory
is not planned. Secondly, there is an area of light pcpn around
Bottineau heading toward Langdon. The echoes look worse on radar
than what sfc observations have been showing, which are very light
amounts. Did keep some low pcpn chances along the Canadian border
this morning for this, which is likely mixed pcpn.

Finally, it looks like Fargo will have one more day with a record
high, as we are forecasting temps to rise into the low 50s there.
Elsewhere, expect a fairly big north to south temp gradient.
Looking into tonight, models continue to show fairly big
discrepancies with the next shot of pcpn for the FA. There remain
some timing, placement, and amount issues, but they generally
keep the idea of better chances over the northern half of the FA.
Once again, pcpn type will be an issue. The warmer sfc temps
remain along the southern edge of this pcpn band, with colder
temps near the Canadian border. This would give a mix or rain
along the southern edge and a mix or snow along the Canadian
border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Colder air will continue to sag southward on Wednesday, along
with the area of light pcpn. Once again models differ fairly
significantly on pcpn amounts. The WPC day 2 snow map shows an
inch or two possible across the central FA, but since this is
falling during the day, sfc temps could still be fairly mild. This
could cut into how much snow falls, and for that reason kept with
the idea of less than inch. Expect a break in the pcpn for late
Wed night into Thursday, before the next system brushes the far
southern FA with a little light snow Thursday night. This system
is still targeting areas further south of the FA with more
effects, or over southern SD into southern MN.

For Friday, models continue in general agreement on placement and
track of a Colorado Low system bringing heavy snow across the
Central Plains. At this time, the consensus is the system will track
south of the area. Otherwise...should see mainly dry northerly flow
across the region and light snow amounts for the far southern
portions of the forecast area. Temperatures Thursday will still
remain slightly above normal.

After the system passes, there will be a return to near normal
temperatures...with highs in the lower 20s to middle 30s...and lows
in the single digits to middle teens. The forecast for the weekend
looks mostly dry but cannot completely rule out some flurries over
the weekend as a shortwave disturbance or two pass overhead. By
Monday...surface high pressure tracks east into the Great
Lakes...and return flow will start to bring a bit warmer temps
to end the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon, but fog, low
clouds, and light precip will cause challenges tonight and Wed.
MVFR/IFR cigs, and perhaps light snow/flurries, will move into
KGFK/KDVL areas tonight and will impact KTVF area late tonight.
IFR cigs and precip will remain north of KBJI/KFAR until Wed AM.
Snow will transition to rain Wed AM as it gradually shifts south
but likely won`t impact KBJI/KFAR areas until mid day Wed. Fog
and IFR/LIFR vsbys are expected to be an issue tonight through
Wed AM for most TAF sites except perhaps KFAR area where drier air
will take longer to saturate.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Hopkins
AVIATION...BP



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