Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201318
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
718 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

No major changes just adjusted grids to match trends with high
pops and low QPF. Minimal accumulations today as snow tapers off
from west to east. Surface high pressure already nosing into the
Devils Lake basin with winds already on the decrease.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Impacts today will gradually diminish as snow band currently
bringing light snow to most of the area with moderate snow to the
far eastern areas continues to lift to the northeast and
accumulating snow ends from west to east this morning. Early
morning reports range from around an inch in Valley City to 3
inches for the Fargo and Wahpeton areas. Will remove Barnes county
from the advisory otherwise no changes to the headlines. Snowfall
totals in line with previous forecast of 3 to 6 inches within the
advisory. Expecting another inch or 2 through noon for the eastern
portions of the advisory. In the valley likely less than another
inch through the morning. North winds gusting 25 to 30 mph will
create some patchy blowing and drifting snow across the southern
Red River Valley through the morning with winds decreasing this
afternoon. Light snow and flurries can be expected to persist
into the afternoon for much of the area and evening across NW MN.

Clearing skies expected this evening with surface high pressure
building into the central plains keeping westerly winds mixing
some through the overnight. This will keep temperatures from
bottoming out with the fresh snow pack as lows are expected to be
in the single digits below zero. Combined with the winds hazardous
wind chills will return with values 25 to 35 below by Wednesday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

After a chilling morning early Wednesday, southwest flow aloft
develops with surface winds swinging south behind strong high
pressure moving through the Plains. Wednesday will be a dry day with
more sunshine, resulting in a slightly warmer feel than the previous
few days.

The next chance for snow moves in Thursday afternoon and night. A
shortwave provides lift as it pushes around upper ridging. There is
generally good agreement in better lift and QPF being situated
mainly over central and southern MN with stronger 850 mb winds and
moisture supply, but there is still uncertainty in this due to light
QPF. Best chance for any accumulating snow will be in west central
MN and areas southeast.

For the weekend, the upper flow splits with disturbances to the
north and south of the Northern Plains. At this point, this pattern
does not look to yield any significant impacts, but there is still
significant model uncertainty in the precise tracks of these
disturbances. Otherwise, most notable highlight is more mild weather
with highs in the teens to 20s for the end of the week, rising into
the 20s to near 30 for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 711 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

IFR and MVFR CIGs and VSBYs to gradually improve this morning as
snow ends from west to east. By evening VFR conditions expected
with clearing skies for the overnight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ039-049-052-
     053.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ002-003-009-
     015>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...JK


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