Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 152144
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
344 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Warm dry air moving over Colorado in westerly flow aloft. There
will be bands of high clouds, mainly over the northern part of the
state, and some high-based afternoon cumulus clouds. Temperatures
should warm a little more on Friday despite a bit more cloud
cover. The only changes to the existing forecast were to add a
little more cloud cover and a little more wind for the mountains.
With a little more wind and heat Friday and slightly lower
humidities, there will be a few areas approaching Red Flag
criteria. This is mainly over the east slopes in places like
Fairplay and Georgetown that are prone to winds descending from
the higher mountains. With marginal conditions as well as
marginal fuel moisture we will not issue a warning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017

A short wave trough embedded in the strong westerly flow will
race across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains Friday night
and Saturday. Over Colorado, a weak west-northwest flow aloft will
prevail. A cold front will enter northeast Colorado late Saturday
morning and dive south through the state during the afternoon and
evening. Expect temperatures to stay steady or fall a little
behind the front Saturday afternoon, so the timing of the front
will affect high temperatures Saturday. Southern areas of the
forecast area will approach 90. Northern areas will cool off
sooner and expect lower 80s for highs. Moisture increases behind
the front with precipitable water values around an inch during the
late afternoon and evening over northeast Colorado. The increase
in moisture and northeast upslope flow behind the front is
expected to produce isolated thunderstorms. The lack of large
scale forcing and the warm air aloft will likely limit storm
coverage to isolated.

Sunday will be the cooler with highs in the 80s. Even though there
will be some moisture around on Sunday. A strongly capped airmass
will prevent showers/thunderstorms from forming.

Temperatures will warm next week as an upper level ridge builds over
the southwest part of the country. For Tuesday and Wednesday, high
temperatures are expected to be in the 90s. The ridges shifts
south, which may allow slightly cooler air into the area Thursday,
though highs will still be above normal with upper 80s to mid 90s
expected. Tough to tell if there will be enough moisture for
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Models hint at isolated
convection Wednesday and Thursday, so will have low pops in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017

VFR through Friday. Variable winds at less than 12 knots in the
Denver area will transition to normal S/W drainage winds. This
will likely happen between 23z and 02z at KAPA, and a little later
at KDEN/KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Gimmestad



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