Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 221508 CCB
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN CO WILL BACK TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INTENSIFIES OVER THE WRN US.  QG FIELDS SHOW FAVORABLE ASCENT OVER
THE AREA TODAY THRU THIS EVENING WHICH THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  FURTHERMORE AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA THRU
TONIGHT WITH EPV FIELDS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR BANDED PCPN AS WELL.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ESE TODAY
AND THEN SELY TONIGHT.

AT THE SFC WIL PROBABLY SEE SOME TYPE OF DENVER CYCLONE SPIN UP OVER
DOUGLAS COUNTY WHICH COULD ENHANCE LOW LVL FLOW INTO THE FOOTHILLS
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL
SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS
THRU THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 POSSIBLE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS.
WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT
OF LOW LVL FLOW ITS NOT TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR THESE AMOUNTS TO
OCCUR. IN THE MTNS HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL OCCUR ON EAST FACING SLOPES
WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW IN SOUTH PARK DUE TO SELY LOW LVL FLOW.

OVERALL WILL KEEP WARNINGS FOR THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE PLAINS FM EAST OF DENVER
TO AKRON.  AREAS FROM GREELEY TO NORTH OF AKRON MAY ONLY MEET
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL ADJUST THEM ACCORDINGLY TO ADVISORIES.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS FOR FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR THRU THE EVENING HOURS IF THINGS ALL COME
TOGETHER RIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS READINGS WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE
OVER NERN CO THIS AFTN.  FOR LATER TONIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT POSSIBLY
OVER SOUTH PARK AND IN THE CNTRL MTNS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

SNOW SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY ENDED BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE PLAINS.
STILL CANT RULE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE...BUT LACK OF ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT OR FORCING SHOULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO END. IN THE MOUNTAINS...THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK
LIFT NOTED SO ANOTHER INCH OR SO WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SUMMIT/PARK COUNTY AREA BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN THE DAY AS
UPPER SUPPORT DRIFTS AWAY TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY PARTIAL LATE DAY CLEARING AND
SNOW COVER.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE CLEARING TREND CONTINUE AND EXPECT A
COLD NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE REDUCED
TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS...WITH A FEW SPOTS ON THE
PLAINS DIPPING BELOW ZERO.

TUESDAY IS STILL ON TRACK TO SEE SOME MODERATION BUT DEGREE OF
WHICH WILL BE LIMITED BY SNOW COVER AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY MILD BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING MORE SNOW TO THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE RAISED
POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THERE HAS BEEN GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH TIMING AND VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT. SOME ENERGY MAY
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OPEN TO SHORT WAVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL WITH SNOW COVER AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND SO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MODERATE SNOW LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AT DIA
AROUND 3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IF BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL DVLP LATER THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ELY LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WNDS LATER THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND THEN SLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ042>044-048.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ035-
036-038>041-045>047-049.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ034-037.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ031-033.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ030-
032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK



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