Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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664
FXUS65 KBOU 122148
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
248 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

An upper level ridge will be over the area through Monday while at
the surface, a lee trough lies along the urban corridor. High
level clouds are streaming in from the west riding along a jet.
These clouds will continue to increase tonight, helping to warm
overnight lows. Winds aloft will be increasing overnight. Modeled
cross sections continue to show 45 kt at mountain top which will
be pulled east down over the foothills overnight. Expect gusts of
45 to 55 mph through the night. Over the eastern plains, moisture
will advect in on southeasterly winds. Areas of fog will develop
by midnight along and east of a line from Limon to Akron to
Sterling. High cloud coverage may limit the fog formation or at
least the thickness, so no highlights being sent out now. Towards
morning, some of the westerly downsloping winds may shove the fog
back east and possibly out of the forecast area before sunrise.

On Monday, with warmer overnight lows and warm advection moving in
under the ridge, highs will likely be 10 to 20 degrees warmer over
today`s readings. Winds will be similar with the leeside trough
remaining along the urban corridor.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

Much of the upcoming week will be characterized by a zonal dry
westerly flow over Colorado. Expect gusty winds over higher
exposed mountains at times. A weak wave will brush northern
Colorado on late Tuesday afternoon and night with an associated
cold front. Now it looks too dry for any showers in the mountains
but cooler temperatures behind the front for Wednesday.
Temperatures will still be above normal across lower elevations.

Next stronger system expected to move across Colorado in the late
Thursday and Friday time frame with a better chance for snow in
the mountains and even a slight chance for precip over lower
elevations. There are still some timing differences between the
European and the GFS with the European being slower which could
keep precip in longer on Friday.
.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 155 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

VFR conditions expected through Monday. Winds continue to be a
problem with a DCVZ boundary boundary from southwestern Denver
through DEN and up to the northeast. Therefore the wind forecast
is difficult for DEN and confidence is low at this point. For now,
believe the stronger SE winds will continue for the next 2-3
hours then decrease and then turn south/southwesterly later this
aftn and tonight at KDEN and KAPA. At KBJC, east/southeast winds
expected, with a west component after 06z tonight. Winds will then
become southeasterly again Monday late morning.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman



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