Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KBOU 250307
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
907 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

OTHER THAN SOME CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY...MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND BECOME
ELONGATED AND ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY AIRMASS OVER
COLORADO TONIGHT AND MOST OF THURSDAY.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER
PARK AND SUMMIT COUNTIES WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE UNDER
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH
READINGS INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FROM PAST RUNS. THE TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF CA BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR WILL
BREAK INTO TWO PIECES SPLITTING THE ENERGY TO THE NORTH OVER WYOMING
AND THROUGH OUR CWA. AS MODELS PROGRESS THE DETAILS WILL BE MADE
MORE CLEAR ON DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL STILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN COMING SUNDAY. HOW MUCH
OF A COOL DOWN WILL DEPEND ON IF THE CLOSED LOW STALLS OUT TO THE
WEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN UTAH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH STRONG SW FLOW AND PWS IN THE RANGE OF 0.75-0.90 BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
AND THE SECONDARY TROUGH THEN THE EC. THE GFS STILL HINTS OF A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE MAIN
ENERGY TO THE NORTH OVER WYOMING. THE CURRENT PROGRESSION WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA IF THE GFS
PANS OUT. FOR THE EC IT IS WEAKER AND KEEPS THE MAIN LOW TO THE
NORTH BRINGING ENHANCED PRECIP ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS THE
FEATURE IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT WILL BUILD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO
SLY OVERNIGHT....WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...COOPER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.