Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 241018
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
418 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS OVER SERN WY THIS MORNING AND WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO NC NEBRASKA/SCNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS
EVENING.  SOME MOISTURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
COMBINED WITH DECENT OROGRAPHICS WILL PRODUCE SNOW IN THE NRN MTNS
THRU THE AFTN.  BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS ZN 31 AND WRN PORTIONS OF ZN
33. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.

MEANWHILE A DISTURBANCE OVER NCTRL CO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
ACROSS NERN CO BY EARLY AFTN.  THERE WILL BE SOME WDLY SCT HIGH
BASED SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ESPECIALLY NR THE WY-NE BORDER AREA.

AS FOR WINDS AM STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF STRONGER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND MTN
AREAS FM MID MORNING THRU MID AFTN.  THE NORMAL WINDY AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW GUSTS FM 70 TO 80 MPH DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE
QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD WILL THEY BE. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE SO WILL NOT ISSUE A
WARNING FOR NOW. ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS TO 50 MPH
AT TIMES NEAR THE WY BORDER WITH UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY. AS FOR HIGHS THIS AFTN READINGS WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN MTNS SO ONLY EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN THRU THE EVENING HOURS.  ACROSS THE PLAINS IT
WILL BE DRY.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

THERE IS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA MONDAY. THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW GETS INTO COLORADO BY 06Z MONDAY NIGHT. THE
VARIOUS MODELS BRING THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO CORNER AT 18Z TUESDAY TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
COLORADO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS DUE SOUTHERLY TUESDAY...THEN WEAK
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THERE IS
PRETTY DECENT UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY OVER THE CWA MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY...EVEN MORE EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT. ON
TUESDAY A SURFACE CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERLY
COLORADO WITH UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. MORE NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE AROUND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MORE SO IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE MOISTURE IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND DEEPER ON TUESDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW AROUND. THERE IS SOME MINOR CAPE AROUND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS LATE DAY MONDAY. THE CAPE IS MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
DAY TUESDAY WITH SOME VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER. THE LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP BOTH LATE DAY PERIODS OF
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE MINOR AMOUNTS OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA LATE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A BIT MORE NOTED FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR POPS...WILL MAINLY HAVE "CHANCE"S IN FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE "LIKELY"S FOR
LATE DAY TUESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C
WARMER THAN TODAY`S. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 4-11 C COLDER THAN
MONDAY`S FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS
HAVE WEAK UPPER RIDGING FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO FRIDAY
...WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW TO MOVE IN LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

VFR TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  MAIN PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS.
WITH SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD SEE DECENT MIXING OF STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.  WINDS AT DIA
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE SWITCHED BACK TO MORE SSW HOWEVER THEY
SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WLY BY 15Z AND THEN WNW BY 18Z.  MAY
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z WITH GUSTS FM 30 TO 35
AFTER 18Z.  WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE BY 23Z INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  THE RAP HAS WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NLY BY 02Z WHILE
THE HRRR HAS MORE OF A WSW DIRECTION.  WILL TREND TOWARDS A MORE
WSW COMPONENT WITH SSW WINDS BY 06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



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