Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 270309
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
909 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME BUT A
FEW COULD DEVELOP ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA AS MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK IS THICKENING AGAIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERLY AND MORE
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND LARGE PRESSURE RISE
UNDER KANSAS/NEBRASKA CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
FORMATION ON THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BOUNDARIES COLLIDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DENVER METRO
AREA BUT SAW LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE
TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE FRONT RANGE
SO WILL BE REDUCING POPS THIS EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS ON THE
PLAINS WILL EXIT THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY 6-7 PM.
THEY WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN BUT SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY
DECREASING. HAVE ALREADY TRIMMED BACK THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY ERUPTED OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALREADY ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING TOWARDS THE METRO AREA WHICH
WILL CREATE FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER DENVER AND EXTENDING
INTO WELD COUNTY. PW VALUES CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER ENTIRE AREA
AND SHOULD EVEN BE OVER AN INCH OVER FRONT RANGE BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL LESS ACTIVITY OVER NW PORTIONS OF CWA WITH DRIER
AIR AND AWAY FROM MAIN MOISTURE PLUME.

FOR MONDAY...THERE WILL BE DRIER AND EVEN WARMER AIR MOVING FROM
THE WEST AS UPPER TROF OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASES THE FLOW
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF CWA AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE EVEN WARMER ON THE PLAINS WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOISTURE INFLUX WILL
BE THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE COMING WEEK.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH CO DECREASING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE PLAINS AND
SWITCHING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
DURING THE DAY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BOUNDARY IN THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70. LATER THE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE INCREASE UPSLOPE AND
A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESS
WESTWARD PUSHING THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE METRO
AREA AFFECTING MAINLY PARK COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
I-70. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. THURSDAY WILL SEE MUCH OF THE SAME CONDITIONS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER THE 4 CORNERS
REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE OVERALL
WEATHER PICTURE DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION KEEPING THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
AND OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE
WNW. MODELS DUE INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES THAT COULD BRING IN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS
PERIOD. HIGHS INTO THE WEEKEND WILL REBOUND WITH THE ADDITIONAL
HEATING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 909 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MORE PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD ALLOW A DENVER
CYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG TO KDEN 11Z-14Z. THAT ALL DEPENDS ON MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AS
WELL...BUT PRESENT TREND SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING. IF FOG
DOES DEVELOP...COULD SEE 1/4-1/2SM VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 21Z MONDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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