Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 150312
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
812 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS SOME DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE COLORADO. THIS MAY
KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER END OF THE WARNING. WILL LOWER
SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE FOR THIS AREA AND NUDGE UP TOTALS FOR
NORTHEAST WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES WHERE IT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
CURRENTLY FALLING. WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS IS.

LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE...MAINLY OVER NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS. ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN INCH.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO BE
LIGHT...BUT LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS COULD PILE UP TO
ANOTHER 3 INCHES IN FAVORED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

SNOW IS FALLING OVER MOST OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW. THE PLAINS HAVE
SEEN UP 3 INCHES IN PLACES SO FAR. SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING
A DECENT CIRCULATION RIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO
AT THIS TIME. THE WIND FIELD IS QUITE UNIFORM OVER THE PLAINS
RIGHT NOW...NORTHERLY IN DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS GUSTING UP TO 30
KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE PLAINS. ALL THE MODELS
HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH TO BE THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND
THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AT 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO
WESTERN BORDER AT 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON LATE. THERE IS STILL SOME
UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CWA
THIS EVENING...THEN IT IS ALL FAIRLY STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE NORTH-NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR MOISTURE...IT IS DEEP THIS EVENING FOR ALL AREAS...THEN IT
DECREASES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
MOISTURE DOES LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE DIVIDE. THERE IS MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS THIS
EVENING FOR MOST AREAS...THEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. WILL LINGER THE POPS PROPERLY
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
LINGER THEM WELL INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. WILL LEAVE
ALL HIGHLIGHTS GOING AS IS FOR NOW. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY`S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
OVER THE EXTREME NE CORNER OF THE PLAINS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. A COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE COMBINED
WITH THE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY KEEPING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND THE MAIN BRANCH OF ENERGY IS WAY SOUTH BY THURSDAY
EVENING. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD KEEPING SOME
MOISTURE LAGGING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS SO KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE PLAINS.

FOR SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE INDICATING A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THE LOW CENTER
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND DECENT OROGRAPHIC SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN FLOW
ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW PUT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A
RAIN-SNOW MIX OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 07Z...IF ANY SNOW OCCURS
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...LESS THAN A HALF INCH. CEILINGS LESS
THAN 1000 FEET WILL LIFT SOON...LIKELY BY 06Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS OF 6000-10000 FEET THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH 10Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 12Z.
EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL RETURN NORTHERLY MID TO LATE MONDAY
MORNING...AROUND 17Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ048>051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034-
042-044>047.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER


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