Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 200314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
914 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Issued at 904 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Clearing skies and diminishing winds should allow for freezing
temperatures overnight. No changes to the current grids.


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Northwesterly flow aloft is over the CWA. The area radars show a
few tiny echoes right now over Larimer, Logan and Washington
counties. The wind field over the plains is north-northwest to
north-northeast. Models have strong northwesterly flow aloft for
the CWA tonight and Thursday. There is pretty strong subsidence on
the QG omega fields tonight into Thursday morning, with neutral
synoptic scale energy Thursday afternoon. Normal drainage wind
patterns should prevail tonight over the western three-quarters,
with northerly flow over the east. South and southeasterly flow
prevails over the plains on Thursday. After the current cloudiness
dissipates early this evening, there is not much moisture
overnight and Thursday. Will keep limited pops going early this
evening over the northeast corner of the CWA. Thursday will be
dry. For temperatures, tonight`s readings over the plains look as
a freeze is good bet for all the plains. Dewpoints should should
stay in the lower and mid 20s F. The normal drainage winds that
are expected over most of the plains do not look very strong. Went
with a Freeze warning for all but the far northeast border zones.
Thursday`s highs look to be 1-5 C warmer than this afternoon`s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A building upper level ridge starting Thursday night will bring
NW flow over the state on Friday as the jet moves north. Model
cross sections are showing some upper level moisture that could
result in a thin cirrus deck but other wise sunny with above
normal temperatures in the 70s on the plains and 50s in the
mountains on Friday. As the ridge moves further east over CO the
flow will become more westerly. Increasing mid level warm air
advection and westerly downsloping winds will make temperatures
once again reach into the mid to upper 70s on the plains by
Sunday. Increasing zonal flow combined with upper jet influence
over the northern most portions of the state will bring some
increasing winds to the higher elevations...however without a mean
critical stable layer the winds will have a hard time making it to
the lower foothills and plains. Temperatures will stay elevated
through Monday with highs in the 70s on the plains and 50s in the
mountains. This dry and warm period will once again elevate fire
danger across the region.

Looking ahead the next disturbance will be Monday into Tuesday as
Southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of a weak shortwave.
There is some weak QG with this feature that could bring rain
showers to the mountains. At this time 700 mb temperatures do not
indicate snow as flow is warmer from the SW. Temperatures will
drop slightly with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 904 PM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Northeast winds lingering a little longer in the evening but
should taper off after 05z and become more variable as it slowly
goes to drainage by 07z. Otherwise VFR.


Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM MDT Thursday for COZ038>045-048-



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