Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161724 AAA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1124 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

COOL...MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY STABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE MTNS
CONTINUES TO HAMPER UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS HOUR. A FEW
T-STORMS ROLLED OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND
MORPHED INTO A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THEY TRACKED SOUTHEAST
ACRS NERN LARIMER...NRN WELD...LOGAN AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES.
SYNOPTICALLY...UNUSUALLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE
TAIL END OF A +90 KT PASSING OVER NERN COLORADO ATTM WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE NW-TO-SE STORM MOTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT/INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN WY ATTM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACRS NERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
AND OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. STORMS SHOULD FORM FIRST UP ALONG THE
WY BORDER THEN ADVANCE SEWRD AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS AFTER 1 PM LOOK GOOD MAINLY FOR
AREAS FROM THE FRONT RANGE EASTWARD. HOWEVER MAY BE A BIT TOO
STABLE FOR MUCH T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ACRS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF
THE CWA TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH PW
VALUES IN THE 0.80-0.90 IN RANGE. TRAINING STORMS MAY BE THE MAIN
CULPRIT. OTHERWISE A COOL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES PLAINS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 70S. HIGH COUNTRY AREAS ESPLY WEST OF THE
CONT DVD NOT LIKELY TO FEEL MUCH OF AN IMPACT FROM THE COOL/MOIST
AIRMASS BLANKETING THE ERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH WYOMING HAS A COMPLEX STRUCTURE WITH
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS NOW ABOUT OVER DENVER...AND BANDS OF JET
RELATED LIFT STRETCHED EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AND ALSO
ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. THERE ARE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE
OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS...THESE ARE NOT REAL SOLID BUT WILL
LIKELY FILL IN WITH THE CURRENT CLEARING ALOFT. STILL A FEW
SHOWERS COMING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A
BREAK FOR THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. NEXT SHOWER BAND NORTH OF
RAWLINS WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. IT
IS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME COOLING AT MID LEVELS...WHICH WILL ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDER MIXED IN WITH
THE SHOWERS. CAPES LIKELY IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND AN INCH SO COULD STILL HAVE SOME
HEAVY RAINERS...BUT CELLS SHOULD BE MOVING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SOME TRAINING GIVEN THE JET FORCING...BUT ONCE AGAIN DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT. BEST OF THIS LIFT SHOULD BE
DROPPING SOUTH THIS EVENING...BUT THE DRYING DOES NOT REALLY COME
INTO THE NORTH UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

FOR THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WL EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WAS
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO REBOUND BUT STILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL. GREATEST TSTM
COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ISOLD COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. CAPES IN THE AFTN ONLY IN THE 200-400
J/KG RANGE. PW VALUES AROUND 0.75...SO ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD
STILL PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ON FRIDAY...
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT SO THE
SOUNDING PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED V APPEARANCE...WITH BEST
MOISTURE AOA 650 MB. CAPES IN THE 600-800 J/KG RANGE. BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BETTER CHANCE OF DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE FLASH FLOODING TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PRESENT
UNDER THE RIDGE SO POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...
ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN IN AND
AROUND THE DENVER AREA BEGINNING SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
COULD SEE MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS DURING PASSING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINSHOWERS. SMALL HAIL NOT LIKELY BUT ALWAYS POSSIBLE.
WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY E-NELY IN DIRECTION AT 8-14KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS COULD LINGER IN THE
AREA UNTIL AROUND 04Z THIS EVENING. THEN LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG IN
LOW LYING AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH STORM MOTIONS OF 20-25
MPH. TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
AMOUNTS. STORM TOTALS UP TO AN INCH IN UNDER AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM...AND MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS. BURN SCARS WILL BE MOST SUSPECTIBLE TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER
HYDROLOGY...GIMMESTAD/COOPER


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