000
FXUS63 KICT 220446
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1146 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Water vapor imagery shows southern stream impulse lifting
northeast over western KS with a much more robust wave diving
southeast over southern Manitoba. At the surface, cold front
stretches from extreme northeast Nebraska into northeast Colorado.

Moisture advection in the 850-700mb layer is already in place
across the area and is allowing sct showers and storms to develop,
especially over northeast KS. This moist mid level flow will
steadily increase as the evening hours approach which should
result in a slow increase in activity, especially over
east/northeast KS. With precipitable water values over 2 inches
and a tropical connection(via water vapor imagery) very high
rainfall rates are likely. Contemplated throwing a couple counties
in a flood watch this evening, but still feel the most likely
areas to see widespread flooding will be just northeast of the
forecast area. Would still not be shocked if we issue a couple
flood warnings tonight along our northeast fringes. Still can`t
rule out a few strong to severe storms tonight given some decent
instability and wet microburst potential.

Cold front is expected to sweep through the area Tue morning and
by out of the forecast area by the early afternoon hours. May see
some sct showers and storms near the front, but feel the more
widespread activity will be tonight with the continued mid level
moisture transport.

A much cooler and especially drier airmass will be welcomed across
the region behind the front with highs in mid to upper 80s Tue and
low to mid 80s for Wed and Thu. Normal highs for this time of year
are around the 90 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

There is still decent model agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in
lifting some upper energy out of the desert sw/Great Basin and
across the central/southern Plains Thu night through Fri night. At
the same time there is also good agreement in tracking a tropical
system across the Gulf and into sw TX by Thu night. Right now
medium range models keep this system over southern TX. Even though
we will eventually get some better moisture up here later in the
week, confidence is high that afternoon highs will remain below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to impact
the region overnight, as a strong cold front approaches from the
northwest, interacting with rich monsoonal moisture streaming in
from the southwest. Thinking the greatest chances will be
generally along/east of I-135. Covered this threat with VCTS for
now, although may eventually need TEMPO groups for TSRA for a
handful of TAF sites. Winds will switch to north/northeasterly and
gusty in wake of the frontal passage later tonight into Tuesday
morning, along with possibly a transient zone of MVFR ceilings.
Only went SCT015 for now, but will continue to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  87  62  84 /  40  30  10   0
Hutchinson      70  87  59  84 /  40  20   0   0
Newton          71  86  58  82 /  40  30   0   0
ElDorado        71  86  59  82 /  60  40  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   73  88  62  84 /  30  40  10   0
Russell         67  85  57  86 /  30  10   0   0
Great Bend      68  86  57  85 /  30  10   0   0
Salina          70  86  57  85 /  50  10   0   0
McPherson       70  86  57  83 /  50  20   0   0
Coffeyville     74  88  63  83 /  40  50  10   0
Chanute         73  85  60  82 /  60  40  10   0
Iola            72  84  60  81 /  60  40  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    74  87  63  82 /  40  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ADK