Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 290858
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
358 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Forecast highlights: Rain/storms today, and again this weekend
into early next week.

Latest MRMS precipitation data suggests widespread rain amounts
of 1-2 inches, with pockets of 2-3 inches have fallen since
yesterday afternoon/evening in a wide north-south strip from
central and south-central Kansas east through the Flint Hills of
east-central and southeast Kansas. This will likely produce
healthy rises on several rivers/streams/creeks this morning, with
most probably remaining just below minor flood stage levels.
However, a handful of points could exceed minor flood stage,
especially if another widespread, prolonged area of moderate to
heavy rain moves north across the area this morning (which appears
possibly given activity still across Oklahoma). Additionally, a
handful of areal flood warnings for minor low-land flooding will
remain possible.

Once Oklahoma precipitation moves north across the region early
this morning, thinking widespread moderate to heavy rain should
gradually decrease in coverage, as a mid-level dry slot spreads
north over the region. However, portions of central and north-
central Kansas will likely see widespread precipitation shield
hang around longer due to mid-level deformation zone setting up
shop western through northern KS.

Attention then turns to strong/severe storm potential from midday
through early this evening, generally east of the Kansas Turnpike
corridor, as the warm sector retrogrades northwest some in
response substantial upper energy approaching from the southwest.
If airmass is able to recover from morning convection, strong deep
layer shear in concert with steepening lapse rates/cooling aloft
and modest instability would support large hail and perhaps
locally 60 mph winds with a handful of storms. Tornado threat
should remain fairly low given veer-back deep layer shear
orientation, but cannot completely be ruled out given the strong
wind fields associated with this system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Models are finally coming into better agreement with the next
system, with consensus supporting more rain/isolated storms this
weekend through Monday. Could see pockets of locally heavy
rainfall, although this next storm doesn`t look as impressive as
the current one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Aviation concerns will remain widespread showers and storms along
with lower ceilings.

Upper low is still making its way across west TX with a large
area of upper diffluence and 850-700mb moisture transport
resulting in widespread showers and storms over central and south
central KS. This activity should continue for the next several
hours and should actually work back to the west overnight.
Visibilities in the heavier showers and storms are expected to be
around 2sm with ceilings bouncing between MVFR and IFR. Not out of
the question to see some LIFR cigs, especially west of I-135.
Should see a decrease in convection after 15z Wed as as dry slot
moves across areas along and east of I-135. However, even with the
decrease in precip, should continue with at least IFR ceilings at
all sites with the exception of KCNU.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Wet and cool weather along with things starting to green up should
keep fire danger levels fairly low the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    57  42  51  39 /  90  50  50  10
Hutchinson      49  40  51  37 /  90  60  50   0
Newton          54  42  49  38 /  90  60  50  10
ElDorado        60  43  51  39 /  90  60  50  10
Winfield-KWLD   61  44  52  39 /  80  50  40  10
Russell         46  39  51  36 / 100  70  20   0
Great Bend      46  39  53  35 /  90  70  30   0
Salina          48  40  50  38 / 100  70  50   0
McPherson       48  40  50  37 /  90  70  50   0
Coffeyville     69  48  54  41 /  90  50  50  20
Chanute         67  48  53  41 /  90  60  60  20
Iola            65  49  54  41 /  90  60  60  20
Parsons-KPPF    68  48  54  41 /  90  50  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...ADK


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