000
FXUS63 KICT 250428
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS RETURN OF THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BECOME ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY SATURDAY...AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A HOT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CREEP
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN INITIAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIPPLES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK SLIM...THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SURFACE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH MAXS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK AND HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STRETCH OF RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW LATE JULY CLIMO.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A 50 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXY OVERNIGHT WEST OF I-135. GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY THERE...WHILE SOUTHEAST KS WILL BE DECOUPLED.
DEEP MIXED LAYER (SURFACE-700 MB) ON FRIDAY EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30-34 KNOTS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A FEW
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  76 101 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          75 101  76 101 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        73  99  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74 100  75 101 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         75 103  73 100 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      76 103  74 101 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          75 105  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         69  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            69  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$