000
FXUS63 KICT 142038
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TONIGHT:
CURRENT HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS AT ALL
LOCATIONS. ANTICIPATED WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY AND WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SEE SHARP FALL AT SUNSET. GIVEN FAIRLY
LARGE WEST COMPONENT TO THE LIGHT WIND LATE IN THE NIGHT...SUSPECT
THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES AS
NEAR SURFACE MIXING VARIES.

TUE-WED:
CHALLENGING FORECAST AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
RAPIDLY WITH GOOD LAPSE RATES ON MON. APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH WEST
COMPONENT TO LIMIT RECIRCULATION OF COLD AIR...AND PROMOTE SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE LARGE REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES MON ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE MIXING OF DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE WEST. BRISK WINDS CONTINUE TUE NIGHT AND SHOULD RESULT
IN MILD NIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ATTENDENT MIXING WILL RESULT
IN WINDS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MOST OF THE AREA WED. THE
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT MAY VEER AND DECREASE WINDS IN THE VICINITY
OF KRSL DURING THE DAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT:
BOTH GFS/ECWMF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT. MAIN
CONCERN IS THAT BOTH SUGGEST VERY COLD AIR WILL BE PRESENT BEHIND
SURFACE FRONT...WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
BY THU MORNING IN CENTRAL KS...AND SPREADING IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS
THU NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK FRI. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A BRIEF REPRIEVE OCCURS ON FRI-SAT AM...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING SAT AFTERNOON AND INTO SUN. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE
PROBLEMATIC...AS ECMWF/GFS HANDLE CHANGE IN LONGWAVE PATTERN VERY
DIFFERENTLY...BUT BOTH ARRIVE A SAME RESULT. ECMWF PUSHES A WEAKER
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH TRAILING FRONT TAPPING
RETURN MOISTURE AHEAD OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST
US. MEANWHILE GFS SWINGS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT. HOWEVER BOTH
ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TIMING WISE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH HAS BEEN
FOLLOWED WITH SOME RESERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE WARM
ENOUGH TO AVOID WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYS. -HOWERTON


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SNOW AND VFR VSBYS/CIGS HAVE EXITED THE AIRSPACE AROUND THE
TERMINALS AS OF 17Z. RAPID CLEARING IS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...WITH ALL CLOUDS EXITING THE AREA BY 20Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS THROUGH 22Z...WITH A MARKED DECREASE THEREAFTER. WINDS BACK OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
BY 15Z TUESDAY...ALL OF KANSAS WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. BY 20Z TUESDAY...THOSE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL REACH THE ENTIRE STATE.

COOK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WILL LIKELY REACH LOW END RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
KS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LATEST GFDI VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER 50S
ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST HIGHWAY 14 IN CENTRAL KS. AT THIS POINT BASED
ON COLLABORATION WILL HOIST RED FLAG WATCH FOR THIS AREA TUE
AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES ON WED...WILL SEE EVEN
LARGER AREA OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KS. THE AREA WHERE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR TUE MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO FRONT TO KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND AVOID THE
WATCH ON WED. GIVEN GFDI VALUES ARE STILL LESS 60 ON WED...WILL HOLD
OFF ON THAT WATCH FOR NOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING/APRIL 15TH WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORDS...

CHANUTE: 24 IN 1928
WICHITA: 25 IN 1983
RUSSELL: 26 IN 1983
SALINA : 23 IN 1936

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    27  62  41  72 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      25  62  41  73 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          27  59  41  70 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        27  60  41  69 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  62  42  71 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         22  64  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      23  63  43  71 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          24  63  43  74 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       24  61  41  72 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  61  40  68 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         26  60  39  68 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            26  58  39  68 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    24  61  39  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050.

&&

$$