Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 152051
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
251 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Cold front is making slow progress across portions of central KS at
this time (currently located along Highway 50). Temps behind the
front are only in the upper 50s, while good downslope flow ahead of
the front has led to temps soaring into the low to mid 70s. Frontal
boundary will continue to make slow progress for the late afternoon
hours, but the southward progression will pick up steam for the
evening hours, as main shortwave over the northern high plains
begins to sweep southeast across the northern plains. This will help
push the front south into OK by this evening and overnight. Short
range model solutions do show some fn-convergence increasing over
the top of the front, as it pushes south, with portions of SE KS
possibly having enough moisture for a slight chance of rain,
possibly rain changing to or mixing with light snow as the colder
air pushes into the area late tonight.

Much colder air, (almost 25 degrees colder) will move into the area
for Fri, as a Canadian ridge of high pressure moves across the area.

Do not expect the colder air to last long, as the ridge shifts
quickly to the east of the area by Fri night or early Sat.  A
shortwave in the W-NW flow will lead to some return flow moisture
for late Fri night or early Sat, leading to a slight chance of light
snow changing to light rain over SE KS.

The return flow will lead to a brief warmup for the weekend, with
breezy S-SW winds returning to the region with good downslope flow
again. This will lead to temps again climbing back above normal.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Another strong cold front, similar to todays, will drop south into
north central KS on Mon.  Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest a wave will
move across central KS, along this front, helping to pull lots of
low level moisture into areas east of the KS Turnpike, increasing
chances for showers and possibly some embedded thunderstorms for
the daytime hours on Mon.

Medium range models are coming into better agreement with this front
pushing into srn KS by Mon evening. Some uncertainty on the moisture
quality ahead of the front, but the GFS suggests moisture quality
may be enough for strong (possibly severe) thunderstorms across SE
KS for Mon evening, given the strong shear expected with the flow
and convergence increasing along the front.

Lots of uncertainty on how far south the front will push into OK or
nrn TX, for Mon night or early Tue, with the medium range models
suggesting a few bouts of light or very light precip over the top of
the cooler air across south central and SE KS with temps having a
big impact on the type of precip, either being rain/snow or freezing
rain.

Latest medium range models suggest a pattern chance may occur for
the middle to the end of next week, which may allow better moisture
return to the plains and thus better precip chances.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Cold front is moving southeast and near KGBD with this issuance.
This front will transition the winds to the north for the rest of
the sites through 3Z as it passes through the Plains. Winds are
going to stay breezy through most of the period. Models are
suggesting a drop to MVFR ceilings for KRSL and KSLN this evening.
There is only a hint of reaching around the MVFR and VFR threshold
of roughly 3k feet currently. VFR conditions are anticipated
otherwise.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Breezy S-SW winds will continue across southeastern
KS for the late afternoon hours.  Dry cured grasses and gusty SW
winds will lead to a very high grassland fire danger for areas east
of the Kansas Turnpike into the early evening hours.

A strong cold frontal will push south across the region tonight. The
north winds on the backside of the front will create a very high
grassland fire danger across south central KS late tonight.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    25  41  30  60 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      22  39  27  58 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          21  39  28  57 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        24  40  30  59 /  10   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   27  42  31  61 /  10   0  10  10
Russell         18  40  25  57 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      19  40  26  58 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          20  39  27  57 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       21  38  27  57 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     30  41  32  59 /  30   0  30  40
Chanute         26  40  30  58 /  20   0  20  30
Iola            25  39  29  57 /  10   0  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    28  40  32  59 /  30   0  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham



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