000
FXUS63 KICT 151446
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
946 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE CURRENTLY HAVE TWO SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA. ONE IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE APPROACHING WEST TX. AT THE
SURFACE...LEE DRUGGING HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

MODIFIED TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK FEASIBLE GIVEN LESS
CLOUD COVER AND DECENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. NAM/GFS APPEAR
OVER-AGGRESSIVE WITH TIMING AND EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BASED
ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. RUC AND HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON
SLOWER ADVECTION. DUE TO DELAYED MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CWA...HAVE
TONED DOWN PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE DAY...FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE NIL OR VERY LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

IN LATER UPDATE...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST TIMING OF THE START OF WIND
ADVISORY GIVEN NEW GUIDANCE.  WILL LOOK AT A FEW MORE THINGS BEFORE
MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH.

SF

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE RED RIVER. AS THE NORTHERN SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN OVER AR THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN THE WRAP
AROUND REGION OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR
AREAS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-135. IN ADDITION...THIS SAME
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL START AS ALL RAIN AREA WIDE
TONIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW AND ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF FAR SE KS PICKS UP A QUICK INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW...MAINLY AFTER 12Z SUN WITH SOME SLEET ALSO MIXING-IN. THE
MODEL TREND HAS DEFINITELY BEEN TO PULL COLDER AIR SOUTH WITH EACH
RUN.

THE BIGGER STORY MAY END UP BEING THE VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
REALLY TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH UPPER END ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN POSSIBLE OVER SE KS BY
EARLY SUN MORNING. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE FORECASTING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW OVER SE KS SUN MORNING...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS EVENTUALLY NEEDED DUE TO THE COMBO OF STRONG WINDS AND SNOW.

PRECIP WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END SUN AFTERNOON AS WE GET RIGHT
BACK INTO RETURN FLOW TO START THE WORK WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE.

DID INCREASE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY AS GOOD DOWNSLOPE STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK. HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH SE KS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ON TUE. CONFIDENCE HAS NOW INCREASED THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO
REMAIN ACTIVE AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON TRACKING ANOTHER
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A SE-MO VG COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE KRSL (~23Z) THAT...UPON ARRIVAL...WILL PRODUCE A
SW-NW WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS GREATLY INCREASING TO ~22KTS SUSTAINED
WITH ~30KT GUSTS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AREAS OF RA/EMBEDDED TS SHOULD
SPREAD N/NE ACROSS PRIMARILY SE KS ~16/00Z BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT KCNU UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WHEN NLY WINDS
WILL GREATLY INCREASE TO ~25KTS SUSTAINED WITH ~35KTS GUSTS LIKELY.
SUCH INCREASES WOULD OCCUR OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL & SC KS 03Z-06Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S
IN THE MID 20S TO ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INTO THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY OVER CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AREA WIDE TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE LIKELY WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH. FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY FOR AREAS THAT ARE NOT
SEEING WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AREAS WEST OF
I-135. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUN KEEPING THE FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  32  41  23 /  30  60  30   0
HUTCHINSON      71  31  43  23 /  20  40  20   0
NEWTON          71  31  41  22 /  20  60  30   0
ELDORADO        71  31  39  21 /  30  70  40   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  34  40  23 /  50  70  40   0
RUSSELL         69  27  45  25 /  10  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      70  29  45  25 /  10  30  10   0
SALINA          72  30  42  22 /  10  50  20   0
MCPHERSON       71  30  42  22 /  20  50  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     70  33  37  21 /  60 100 100   0
CHANUTE         71  32  35  18 /  40  80  70   0
IOLA            72  32  35  18 /  30  80  70   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  32  36  20 /  50 100  90   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ053-069>072-
093>096-098>100.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$