Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 262337
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Elevated storms quickly developed early this afternoon in an area
of strong 850-700mb moisture transport. Around nearly the same
time surface based storms developed west of our forecast area on
the more traditional dryline. Large scale lift provided by
approaching shortwave is allowing for much more widespread
convection compared to the last couple of days.

With extreme instability, any storm that goes up will have a good
chance of producing very large hail. Surface flow today is
stronger than last couple of days along with deep layer shear
being more robust. Therefore, any surfaced based storm this
afternoon or evening will have a chance to produce a tornado with
a enhanced risk closer to the warm front/outflow, where winds will
be slightly more backed, resulting in strong low level shear.
Through 2pm, tornado threat is being mitigated by storms
interfering with each other. Going to need a storm to be more
isolated to get a longer lived tor this afternoon/evening.

Also ran with a flash flood watch through Fri afternoon with
several rounds of storms expected and grounds already saturated.
Should also see rivers continue to flood along with additional
rivers going into flood.

As the overnight hours progresses the more widespread convection
should push east and northeast on the better 850-700mb moisture.
Storms still look like a good bet for Fri as the upper wave takes
its time lifting across KS. What is left of the dryline looks to
still linger along the SW fringes of the forecast area by Fri
afternoon and may provide a focus. In addition, large scale lift
will be much better than the last few days which may allow storms
to more freely develop in the very unstable airmass. Severe storms
will be possible with any storms that develop Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

By 18z Sat, the upper wave will be lifting over northeast KS
which will push the better convective chances north and east of
the forecast area. Still not out of the question to get some
storms to develop late Sat night across the southern and southwest
portions of the forecast area as the better 850mb moisture starts
to roll back to the northeast. Confidence in rain chances starting
Sun is very low as we get broad sw flow aloft. While both GFS and
ECMWF agree on a northern stream shortwave tracking across the
northern Plains, they disagree on the timing, with the ECMWF
faster compared to the GFS which leads to low confidence. There is
still some suggestion that a weak impulse will track across
OK/southern KS Mon into Mon evening which may result in some
elevated rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Main Aviation Hazards: Strong-severe storm potential this evening,
and low stratus again late tonight into Friday morning.

Most numerous thunderstorm activity through 03z-05z will be mainly
northwest of the Kansas Turnpike, where best low-level moisture
convergence is indicated. Have tempo TSRA mentioned at RSL, SLN,
and HUT Terminals, with VCTS at ICT and CNU. Large hail and very
heavy rain will be the main threats. A very moist south-
southeasterly boundary layer flow should lead to widespread
MVFR/IFR stratus again late tonight into Thursday morning. The
ceilings should gradually lift and scatter out around midday
Thursday for most of the area. Additional scattered thunderstorms
are possible across eastern Kansas again Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  80  61  81 /  50  40  30  10
Hutchinson      65  80  59  81 /  70  40  30  10
Newton          66  79  61  80 /  70  50  40  10
ElDorado        67  78  62  80 /  50  50  40  10
Winfield-KWLD   66  80  63  82 /  40  40  30  10
Russell         62  81  57  79 /  60  40  30  10
Great Bend      62  81  57  79 /  60  40  30  10
Salina          65  80  58  80 /  70  50  40  20
McPherson       65  80  59  80 /  70  50  40  10
Coffeyville     67  77  65  81 /  40  50  40  10
Chanute         68  76  65  81 /  50  50  50  30
Iola            67  76  64  80 /  50  60  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    67  77  65  81 /  40  50  40  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC



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