Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 151156
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
656 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

The highest probability for storms will occur across the central
high plains this afternoon and evening. This activity may spread
south and east impacting much of our forecast area during the
evening and overnight hours as the LLJ/ H85 moisture transport
noses into central Kansas. MUCAPE over 2000 J/KG and 0-6km bulk
shear of 30-40 knots may be supportive of a few severe storms
through the evening hours. There may also be an attempt across
southern Kansas with a remnant

Storms may be ongoing early in the period on Wednesday with
redevelopment along a southward advancing cold front on Wed
afternoon. A few strong or severe storms may be possible across
south central and southeast KS ahead of the front on Wed afternoon.

A stable post-frontal regime will develop in the wake of the front
on Thursday with seasonable highs in the upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Another shortwave trough is progged to sweep across the northern plains
bringing increasing chances for deep moist convection late Friday
and Friday night. Drier, more stable air will arrive across the
area on Saturday.

Rising heights/increasing thickness will support rising
temperatures toward the end of the period. Maintained low pops as
a series of shortwave troughs are progged to translate eastward
across the central plains states.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Low level moisture streaming back to the north, has led to
scattered stratus clouds and sct/bkn IFR/LIFR cigs for areas east of
the the KS Turnpike this morning. Actually seeing more patchy fog
developing this morning, in absence of the stratus, with MVFR and
scattered IFR vsbys. Think KCNU has the best chance at seeing some
IFR vsbys so will go with a tempo group for this.  Think KICT may be
the westward extent of the stratus and patchy fog, so will go with a
tempo group at KICT as well for a few hours.

Similar to yesterday, expect this stratus deck to slowly mix out
during the morning hours, with some erosion on the edges, before it
lifts rapidly to the NE.

Next concern will be convective chances for the afternoon/evening
hours. Two areas of concern. The first is a convectively induced vort
center over north central OK, slowly making its way east today,
potentially leading to convection developing over south central KS
late this afternoon. Second area of concern, will be over central
KS, where afternoon heating will lead to a chance along Interstate
70 for the afternoon and evening hours.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  74  90  67 /  10  50  50  40
Hutchinson      91  72  88  65 /  10  50  40  30
Newton          90  72  87  65 /  10  40  50  50
ElDorado        89  73  88  66 /  10  50  60  60
Winfield-KWLD   90  74  90  68 /  10  50  60  60
Russell         92  70  86  62 /  10  50  40  10
Great Bend      91  70  87  63 /  10  50  40  10
Salina          94  72  88  64 /  10  50  50  30
McPherson       91  71  88  64 /  10  50  40  30
Coffeyville     90  75  88  70 /  10  30  60  60
Chanute         89  75  87  69 /  10  40  60  70
Iola            88  74  86  68 /  10  40  60  70
Parsons-KPPF    90  75  88  70 /  10  40  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham



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