Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 280435
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1135 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Tonight, A diffuse frontal boundary is currently located from
Wellington to Iola or generally along and just east of the KS
turnpike. Latest satellite imagery shows some clearing just
southeast of the frontal boundary, with some CU trying to bubble
up due to the differential heating. Latest RAP data shows some
surface based instability continuing to pool just to the south of
the boundary with SBCAPE values of 2000-3000 j/kg.

Latest hi-rez model solutions suggest that the frontal boundary will
make slow progress to the south for the late afternoon hours.  Some
concern that this front will linger over SE KS for the late
afternoon hours, with afternoon heating leading to renewed surface
based convection for late this afternoon, and early this evening
mainly across the Flint Hills, and areas southeast of the Wichita
metro area. So will keep some low pops across SE and southern KS for
this chance.  Main concern with convection will be a few strong to
marginally severe storms with wind gusts to 50-60 mph and locally
heavy rainfall due to the slow movement and precipitable water
values of 200 percent of normal.  As the evening progresses, think
the storm chances will shift to the south-southeast as the front
pushes into nrn OK.

Some concern that the elevated 850-700h baroclinic zone may linger
over srn KS which may lead to some additional showers/storms across
srn KS late this evening.  But widespread subsidence looks to build
in behind the front, with the best FN-convergence located to the
south of the forecast area.  So will continue to go with a pops
shifting south of the area.

By Friday morning, the front will be well south into Oklahoma
with some drier air finally making its way into the area. Upper
flow will become more northwesterly as a shortwave approaches the
Ohio Valley. This will also shove the upper ridge slightly
southwest along with the above normal temps. Any shower or storm
chances through the weekend will be tied to moonsonal
moisture/energy. High Plains of eastern CO/western KS will have
the higher chances through the weekend with a small chance some of
this may work into areas west of I-135 Sun evening. With rain
chances tied to such weak upper forcing, confidence is not very
high on how far east showers/storms make it.

Good news is that temps this weekend will be a few degrees below
normal as they top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Overall pattern will not change too much for next week with upper
troughing over the eastern CONUS with broad ridging over the
west/sw. This will keep close to or slightly below normal temps
in place through next week. Precip chances will continue to be
associated with desert sw moonsonal moisture that may try and push
east into the high Plains by mid week. The GFS in much more
agressive with this scenario compared to the ECMWF which does
decrease confidence with regards to precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Scattered showers and isolated storms should gradually diminish
and end overnight across southeastern Kansas, as a frontal
boundary pushes slowly southward out of the area. Areas of MVFR
ceilings are most likely to impact the CNU and possibly ICT
terminals for a few hours in the morning, where slightly cyclonic
isobaric curvature is indicated and dewpoint depressions become
favorable. Otherwise, relatively light northeasterly winds are
progged during the forecast valid period, with scattered afternoon
cumulus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  90  67  88 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      69  91  65  88 /  10  10   0  10
Newton          68  89  64  86 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        69  87  64  86 /  10  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   72  90  67  88 /  30  10   0   0
Russell         66  89  66  88 /   0   0  10  10
Great Bend      68  91  65  87 /  10  10  10  20
Salina          68  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       68  90  64  87 /  10   0   0  10
Coffeyville     73  89  66  87 /  40  10   0   0
Chanute         71  86  65  86 /  20  10   0   0
Iola            70  85  64  85 /  20   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    72  87  66  87 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL/Ketcham
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC


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