Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 260917
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
317 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PROGGED TO SHEAR EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN A VARIETY
OF TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS SE KS.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE THE MORE ROBUST LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND TRANSIENT COUPLED FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
MAINTAINED CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE
BRIEF CHANGEOVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SE KS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE COMING TO AN END AFTER 09-10Z.

SAT-SUN...SEASONABLY COOL AIR AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S/AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A SHIFT TOWARD MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS WERE TRENDED COLDER
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO 00Z FORECAST OF TIMING OF MVFR CLOUDS/
FRONTAL PASSAGE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONS. WIND
SHIFT IS MOVING THROUGH KRSL AT THIS TIME...AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LAGGING
IT BY ROUGHLY 40 MILES. LOW MVFR CEILINGS PROBABLE AND IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS DECK. PREVAILING CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOW MVFR AT THIS TIME. FRONT WILL REACH KICT IN THE VICINITY
OF 12-15 UTC. ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO IMPROVE SOME DURING MIDDAY
TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WILL LOWER
CEILINGS AND BRING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST
LOCATIONS AFTER 0000 UTC. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  26  36  19 /  20  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      38  22  34  16 /  30  40  10   0
NEWTON          42  24  33  17 /  20  50  10   0
ELDORADO        50  27  36  19 /  20  50  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  28  37  20 /  20  50  10   0
RUSSELL         31  17  31  14 /  60  60   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  19  31  15 /  50  50   0   0
SALINA          37  22  33  16 /  30  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       37  22  33  16 /  30  40  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     56  33  38  22 /  50  60  10   0
CHANUTE         54  31  36  21 /  30  60  10   0
IOLA            53  30  36  21 /  30  60  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  32  38  22 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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