Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS63 KICT 162138
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
338 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 338 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Forecast Highlight:
1: Strong cold front still scheduled to plow through KS late Fri
Night & early Sat morning.

2: With sustained speeds from 25 to 35 mph & gusts around 40 mph,
wind advisories are likely for/from late Fri Night until late Sat
morning.

Tonight & Fri:
This afternoon, a fairly sharp surface trough extended from a low
centered over MT to the NM/TX border. The trof will move slowly E
& should extend from eastern Nebraska to western KS by which time
it will have broadened. With strengthening & deepening SW-W flow
pronounced warming would occur from western & southwestern plains
to as far as most of central KS & OK on Fri. With the surface trof
remaining well to the west of KICT Country, pronounced lower-deck
moist advection would commence this evening & continue thru Fri.
The slow eastward trek of the trof would likewise push the lower-
deck moisture axis east Fri afternoon. Lift is minimal & moisture
shallow, so no more than light rain or drizzle would occur across
southeast KS.

Fri Night & Sat:
A strong, positively-tilted upper-deck trof that this afternoon is
situated just off the WA/OR coast will surge E/SE, reaching from
central Canada to the Central/Southern Rockies Fri Night. The wave
will continue to strengthen as it surges SE across the Upper MS
Valley & KS Sat morning. The wave will kick a strong cold front SE
across KS. The onsetting NW-N flow is STRONG. Expect NW-N winds to
reach into Advisory Country in most areas, especially central &
south-central KS where sustained speeds from 25 to 35 mph and 40
to 45 mph gusts are anticipated. There are some minor timing
issues and will therefore check the swing on the advisory
issuance.

Sat Night-Sunday Night:
The north winds will diminish rapidly Sat evening as large high
pressure spreads east into the Great Plains. The diminishing winds
will team with clear skies to enable lows to tumble to 25 to 30
degrees Sun morning. Clear but cool weather would continue the
rest of the weekend as the afore-mentioned intense mid-upper wave
surges across the Appalachians on Sun while broad mid-upper ridge
spreads east across the northern Rockies. The ridge will deamplify
as it ventures into the northern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

All should be quiet across the region. A weak mid-upper shortwave
will scoot E/SE across the immediate KS neighborhood on Mon but
the progressive pattern would inhibit moisture return. Winds will
become S-SW on Mon but quickly shift back to the north Mon Night
as the next cold front arrives. It`ll be clear sailing the middle
of the week as large & somewhat stronger high pressure spreads SE
across the neighborhood.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1058 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Low level warm/moist advection in the developing southerly flow
will result in IFR stratus cigs tonight roughly along/east of the
I-135 corridor. MVFR vsbys in patchy fog can also be expected with
potential for IFR vsbys in fog/drizzle. South winds will become
gusty later today and tonight.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  75  45  55 /  10  10  10   0
Hutchinson      49  77  43  54 /  10   0  10   0
Newton          50  72  42  51 /  10  10  10  10
ElDorado        51  74  44  53 /  20  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   53  75  46  55 /  20  10  10   0
Russell         45  77  39  51 /   0   0  20   0
Great Bend      46  79  39  53 /   0   0  10   0
Salina          49  76  42  53 /  10   0  20  10
McPherson       49  76  42  53 /  10   0  10  10
Coffeyville     52  74  50  56 /  30  30  10  10
Chanute         52  71  47  54 /  30  20  10  10
Iola            51  70  46  53 /  30  20  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    52  72  48  55 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.