Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 261112
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
612 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SKY CONDITIONS CLEAR AT NIGHT AND SUNNY DURING THE DAY. A
HIGH SUN ANGLE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...WITH ONLY A
LIGHT NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE
AREAS 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL BE WELL
INLAND FROM THE COLD LAKE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 20S AND 30S UNDER
LIGHT SFC WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ON MONDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 50S. HOWEVER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND START TO ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH NOW HAVE A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROF WHICH IS COMING IN SLOWER PER THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUNS. THE NAM ALSO HAS THE UPPER TROF POSITIONING...BUT THE COLD
FRONT FALLS APART BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PCPN TO THE WESTERN EDGE MONDAY EVENING. MOVED THE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE ONLY MODEL TO
GENERATE PCPN AS THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT. BUT THIS IS IN REGARDS
TO THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SW MN WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS HAVE AN OPEN WAVE. MAINTAINED THE PLACEMENT OF POPS...BUT
HAVE LOWERED THE VALUES. UPPER TROF IS REPLACED BY BUILDING UPPER
RIDGING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING FROM HUDSON
BAY COVERS THE REGION. THE SFC/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA AS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF ARRIVES OVER MN. THE ECMWF IS
ONCE AGAIN THE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER TROF AND SUBSEQUENT COLD
FRONT VERSUS THE GFS. REGARDLESS...SOME QPF IS GENERATED. HAVE A
BLENDED APPROACH TO POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
CROSS OVERHEAD. THE MODELS DIVERGE SATURDAY AND HAVE CONSENSUS POPS
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  34  63  40 /   0   0   0  20
INL  61  32  68  40 /   0   0  10  30
BRD  61  33  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  59  29  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  49  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF






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