Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 290933
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
333 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE WIND CHILL ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...BUT COLD COLD TEMPERATURES TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES TO 30 BELOW FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT
NOON TUESDAY. THUS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

ITS COLD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HIGH PLAINS.  BETWEEN THE SNOW
COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND WILL NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VALUES AROUND 20 BELOW FROM COOP
OBSERVERS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR USUAL COLD SPOTS AND PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS FRESHEST AND DEEPEST.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE HAS PRODUCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF UPPER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN IRON...ASHLAND AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES.  THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT.  OUR PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...SO EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO EITHER
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES TODAY AND TONIGHT...OR WEAKEN AND THEN REFORM
THIS EVENING OVER THESE SAME AREAS.  THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER FORMATION FOR THESE SAME AREAS.  WITH THE
COLD AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EXPECT THE AIRMASS TO
REMAIN COLD...AND EVEN GET COLDER THAN TODAY.  HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED
TO ONLY RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COLDER YET FOR TUESDAY.  TONIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN...WITH MORE LOCATIONS AROUND 20
BELOW.  AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY TO MODERATE THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT/FAST WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.  ARCTIC AIR WILL GENERALLY BE ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND ALONG WITH A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING WEATHER
SYSTEMS THAT EACH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EVERY 36 TO 48
HOURS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AS THE INITIAL ARCTIC RIDGE MOVES SOUTHWARD TUE EVENING..FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF RAPIDLY
MOVING SHORT WAVES.  THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK/FAST-MOVING AND HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE.. BUT STILL WILL
LIKELY SPREAD A BRIEF PERIOD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING..FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BRIEF
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR.

RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF ON NEW YEARS DAY..AS ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVES FROM N DAKOTA TO NRN WI THUR
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THIS LOW MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SLIGHTLY MORE
SNOW AS FORCING WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST.  HOWEVER..THE
WAVE/S RAPID MOVEMENT WILL STILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.  RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS
LIKE A 1-3 INCH EVENT FOR SOMEWHERE ALONG OR NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR.

A SIMILAR SCENARIO THEN PLAYS OUT ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
FRI/FRI NIGHT..WITH A THIRD CLIPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHLAND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS FOR A 1-3..MAYBE 2-4 INCH SNOW EVENT
SOMEWHERE WITH RATHER HIGH RATIO SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF AND SPORADIC WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE AT
KDLH...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AND TIMING ARE NOT CONSIDERED HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS. MORE FREQUENT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AT
MINNESOTA TERMINALS AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY FOR A
LAYER OF FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED FLURRIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   4 -11   0  -7 /   0   0   0   0
INL  -2 -16  -6 -10 /   0   0   0   0
BRD   5 -10   1  -8 /   0   0   0   0
HYR   6 -11   3 -10 /   0   0   0   0
ASX   9  -4   4  -6 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY
     FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...HUYCK








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