Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 301347
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
847 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Some thunderstorms have developed from the Twin Ports through
northwest Wisconsin. The storms are forming along and on either
side of the cold front moving through the area this morning. The
storms are very weak and will stay that way through the morning.
Made some tweaks to account for these trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A cold front, associated with a stacked low over southern Hudson
Bay, will continue moving south and east through the Northland
this morning. Showers are possible near the front early this
morning. There is a very low risk of thunder, so low that it was
pulled from the forecast for early this morning. However, the
upper level trough axis, associated with the stacked low, will
dive south out of Canada this morning and quickly catch up with
the front. Daytime heating and the synoptic lift produced by the
approaching upper level trough will not only increase the
intensity and coverage of showers when the front moves through
northwest Wisconsin later this morning, but it will increase the
chances of thunder. The RAP, NAM, and GFS indicate there could be
up to a few hundred J/kg of mixed layer cape by late this morning.
The front will exit northwest Wisconsin to the east and south this
afternoon, but low chances of showers and thunder will linger
through early this evening because of the passage of the upper
level trough and daytime heating amidst the cool north-northwest
flow. The flow pattern will likely develop scattered/broken
cumulus across much of the Northland by this afternoon, which may
linger well into the afternoon before skies begin to clear later
in the day.

The rainfall forecast with this passing cold front and upper
trough will be about a 0.25" across northwest Wisconsin, and with
up to 0.40" across the extreme southeast near Price County.
Today`s highs should reach the middle 60s (across the north) to
the low 70s (across the south).

High pressure will build into the Northland from the west tonight
and Friday, bringing a clearing trend. The winds will drop off
tonight, fostering radiational cooling. Leaned on the cooler
consensus MOS guidance, with lows ranging from the lower 40s
(across the north) to the middle 40s (rest of the Northland).
There could be patchy fog across parts of the Northland. Friday
looks sunny with highs reaching the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

The upper level flow will continue to be from the northwest early
in the long term period, but high pressure will build in at the
surface Friday Night and Saturday with dry conditions expected.
The northwest flow will slowly start to become a bit more westerly
by Saturday Night and Sunday. ECMWF and GFS continue to show a
fair bit of disagreement in terms of upper level flow and surface
features by late in the weekend, The ECMWF hints at some potential
thunderstorm activity for Saturday Night and Sunday, and will
continue to mention a small chance of precipitation during that
time. Heat and humidity are expected to rebuild into the Northland
over the weekend and especially during the upcoming work week, as
upper level ridging settles into the region. Does not look like
any organized areas of showers and thunderstorms, but cannot rule
out some isolated to scattered thunderstorms due to being in the
northern stream with warm and humid air building into the area.
Subtle features definitely could set off some showers and storms
so will keep relatively small pops in at this point. Tuesday Night
into Thursday offer a potentially better chance of seeing some
precipitation so will mention more scattered type POP`s during
that time. High temperatures will rise into the upper 70`s to the
80`s during the long term period, and we are looking at a humid
period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A cold front will continue to move southward across the Northland
TAF sites today. Some MVFR CIG`s and VSBY`s will be possible for a
time this morning, but conditions will overall improve to VFR as
the day wears on, and into the evening as high pressure moves in.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  47  71  50 /  50   0   0   0
INL  65  40  73  46 /  20   0   0   0
BRD  73  48  73  51 /  50   0   0   0
HYR  72  46  73  47 /  80  10   0   0
ASX  69  47  72  49 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP


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