Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 241540
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
940 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SFC OBS ARE REPORTING
ALL SNOW. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE ADDED WASHBURN TO AN ADVISORY AS WELL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MOST OF
THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY. WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF
3 INCHES OF SNOW AND ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES COULD FALL.
UPDATED FORECAST/WINTER MESSAGES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS STILL SOME RAIN FALLING CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN WI ZONES...BUT THAT SHOULD ALL SWITCH TO SNOW
SHORTLY. SEVERAL OBS OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST CWA HAVE REPORTED
UNKNOWN PRECIP...WHICH IS LIKELY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIX. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW THIS MORNING PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF WASHBURN/SAWYER COUNTIES. THIS WAS LIKELY IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED RETURNS THAT OCCURRED OVER THAT AREA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WE ADDED SAWYER COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
WASHBURN FOR NOW. STRONGEST RETURNS ARE NOW OCCURRING MAINLY
NORTH. WE DO EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THOUGH SO WILL MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS OF
08Z...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
OF 8MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED OUT OF
THIS LOW INTO THE THE ARROWHEAD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST.

A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE PRECIP COVERAGE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM PINE CITY TO CRANE LAKE WHERE DEEP SATURATION IS EITHER
LACKING OR TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY 15/16Z FOR ALL
SNOW...ALTHOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE LOWER THAN
FURTHER EAST. RAIN WAS STILL REPORTED AS OF 3 AM IN SPOTS OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN WITH DEEPER SATURATION.

HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES
TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. WE THINK ENOUGH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER PRICE COUNTY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WE ARE THINKING 2 TO 5 INCHES THERE. THE SOUTH SHORE
ALSO WILL SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT REASONS.
THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COLDER AIR RIDES OVER THE LAKE. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
THEN DRIER AIR AND BACKING WINDS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY ALSO LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD SEE A NICE ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOP DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE SET UP FOR A GRAVITY
WAVES LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE NAM12/RAP AND MANY OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW THIS AS WELL. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL A BIT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST PINE COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS MUCH
AS 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD GILE/HURLEY.

WE STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT TIMES...IF DEEPER MIXING WAS TO OCCUR STRONGER GUSTS WOULD
OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL CAUSE THE GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED BAND TO WEAKEN OR SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY LATER TONIGHT OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY.

BACKING WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE REST OF THE SOUTH SHORE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK NOW...THEN FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN.

ROADS WILL BE SLICK IN SPOTS TODAY AS COLD AIR CAUSES ANY
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MELTED SNOW TO REFREEZE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL MEAN TEMPS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES AND A
FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

TUES NIGHT INTO WED...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR IOWA BY WED MORNING. THIS
BRIEF SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ROUGHLY SOUTH OF HWY 2/ AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN
TERMS OF QPF. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES COULD ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS AND LEAD TO AN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT. LEANED TOWARDS A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR QPF...AND BELIEVE THAT THE GEM WHICH HAS BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE CWA IS OVERDOING
THE PRECIP...AND EVEN BETWEEN THE PAST AND CURRENT RUN THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY TREND WITH ITS LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS TREND REVERSE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MORE OF A 3-5 INCH
EVENT...BUT THIS SEEMS INCREASING UNLIKELY. BEST TIMING FOR SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WED NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SHORE ARE IN THE 3-6 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
OCCURRING LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ORIENTED WELL
FOR LAKE EFFECT...THEY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS
AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HELPING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND BRINGING LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
FAR NORTHERN MN...ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN MN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...AND NEAR ZERO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRI/SAT/SUN...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
INCREDIBLY WIDE MODEL SPREAD...WITH EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER
THE PLACE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SFC LOW
PLACEMENT. WENT WITH MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. MUCH BETTER
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST SITES. LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS TO BE DRIVEN BY CEILINGS TODAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT CEILINGS/VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  10  23  15 /  90  40   0  40
INL  21   3  22   8 /  60  10  10  40
BRD  20   5  24  17 /  50  10   0  50
HYR  33  10  24  13 /  90  60  10  30
ASX  33  16  26  15 /  90  90  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WIZ007>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE





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