Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 202338
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
638 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

WE EXPANDED POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONS/RADAR.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHT...SO NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS MEANDERING AROUND NW MN AT 19Z WITH
EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WAS RESULTING IN PCPN OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE
AREA FROM COOK COUNTY SWD TO IRON AND PRICE COUNTY WI. MOST OF THE
SNOW HAS BEEN A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS. DID GET A REPORT FROM GILE
WI OF 1 INCH AS OF 1830Z. SNOW HAD ENDED AT GILE AS OF THE REPORT.
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PUSH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE REGION. SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH 00Z WILL BE LIGHT.

AFTER 00Z...EXPECT MORE PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW TRAVELS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF
UPPER MI. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AS
PRIMARILY RAIN EARLY...THEN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW UNTIL NEAR 06Z BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
IRON RANGE N TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. UP TO ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER
IRON COUNTY WI AS A WEAK BAND OF LOW LEVEL FGEN MOVES NEARBY.

THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS OVER TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH COLDER AIR. PTYPE WILL BE SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO
NW WI. BY AFTERNOON...THE PCPN BECOMES MIXED DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING
PROCESSES. SOME AREAS MAY CHANGE OVER COMPLETELY TO RAIN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE CUT OFF LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW WITH UNSTABLE LAPSE
RATES WILL KEEP CLOUDS...GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED DEW POINTS AND RH
VALUES WED AS LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING OF 5000
FT OR HIGHER BRINGS DOWN MUCH DRIER DRY AIR FROM ALOFT.

THE LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WED NIGHT/THURSDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO WESTERN MN.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE EASTWARD
EXTEND OF THE RIDGE AXIS/DRIEST AIR OVER MN...AT THIS TIME
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY ACROSS THE DLH
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
THAT TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE UPPER PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT FCST DRY...BUT POPS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED LATER AS DETAILS BECOME WORKED OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS AROUND 30 THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

THE NORTHLAND REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR AND REDUCE VSBYS. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  37  27  42 /  50  50  20  10
INL  25  37  24  39 /  80  60  30  10
BRD  29  38  27  44 /  50  40  10  10
HYR  30  38  27  43 /  60  60  30  20
ASX  30  40  28  43 /  60  60  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE






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