Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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864
FXUS63 KDLH 230553
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1153 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1152 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Updated to end the advisories and warning for northwest Wisconsin.
Low pressure will continue to move off to the east overnight,
resulting in a rapid decrease in snow. Little additional
accumulation is expected. Roads will remain slick across the area
overnight due to the snow that has fallen.

UPDATE Issued at 821 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Heavy snow continued through the evening commute, but radar trends
over the last hour indicate the precipitation was definitely
diminishing across northwest Wisconsin. As expected, snowfall
amounts across the advisory/warning area were highly variable.
In general, we should see an inch or less in the western areas,
and another 1 to 3 at most in the east. The 23Z HRRR seemed to
have a good handle on the current trends. Will likely continue the
headlines through the current advisory/warning end time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

The forecast remains on track regarding the winter storm moving
through the Northland this afternoon and tonight. As of 3 PM this
afternoon, surface low pressure was centered over southern Iowa
with a closed 500 mb circulation over northern Missouri. This
storm system will move eastward across southern Wisconsin and into
southern Lower Michigan by late tonight. A broad band of snow
stretched from eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas north into
southwest Minnesota and then east across the Twin Cities Metro and
into central and northwest Wisconsin. Snow rates of 1 to 2 inches
per hour have been reported over portions of southern and east-
central Minnesota this afternoon. A strong frontogenetically
forced band of snow stretched from the Twin Cities to near
Phillips, WI and was rotating northward. A period of heavy snow is
expected as this band lifts northwestward across Sawyer and Price
Counties and southern portions of Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland and
Iron Counties. The frontogenetic snow band is expected to pivot
and then pull east-northeastward with two periods of heavy snow
possible. Periods of near-whiteout conditions are possible,
especially on ridgetops and hill crests. Widespread visibility of
one-half to one-quarter mile are expected where conditions are
less windy. Additional accumulation over the afore mentioned areas
of 2 to 6 inches are expected through 6 PM, with another 1 to 4
inches by midnight.

To the north and west of the snow, a mix of light snow and
freezing drizzle continues. Sensible heat and moisture flux from
Lake Superior continues to support shallow convection and
convergence, resulting in bands of snow. Outside of those
convective and convergent bands, precipitation rates are lower and
the column profiles indicate freezing drizzle. Look for the
freezing drizzle potential to diminish this evening as the column
cools, changing over to all light snow before ending.

Snowfall totals and placement are largely unchanged from this
morning with a swath of 8-12 inches across southeast Sawyer and
all of Price County, and lower totals farther northwest. No
changes to headlines with the afternoon update as the advisory and
warning areas seem well placed.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

The Northland is looking at relatively quiet weather for much of
the rest of the week. Weak surface high pressure will move through
the region during the middle of the week, and an upper-level
ridge will build into Northland by late Thursday. This upper-level
ridge will bring a plume of warmer air into region, resulting in
a period of milder weather. The Northland could get a relatively
warm day late this week depending on the timing of when this wave
of warm air moves through the Northland. It currently looks like
the timing of when the axis of warmest air will likely pass
through the Northland Thursday evening or early Friday, rather
than during the day Thursday or Friday. If it would pass through
during the daytime, then the warmer air combined with a little
sunshine could really mean a warm day in the 40s. The GFS`s timing
is about 6 to 12 hours faster than the European and Canadian
model runs, but all three have the axis timing through the
Northland Thursday night or early Friday.

A Canadian Clipper will be on the heels of this plume of warmer
air. This Clipper will likely pass near or just north of the
Canadian border Friday and Friday night, and it will bring light
and snow through the Northland Friday and Friday night. Lingering
snow flurries and cold, blustery winds are possible Saturday and
Saturday night. This latest wind forecast does not reflect these
blustery, gusty winds because of timing differences between the
models generating a blend of overall weaker winds. The GFS is much
faster bringing in the cold air into the Northland than the
Canadian and European. We will likely increase the wind forecast
once we better determine when that surge of Arctic air comes into
the Northland, with widespread gust potential of 20 to 30 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Low pressure will gradually move off to the east as the night
wears on, as high pressure builds into the region. Areas of MVFR
or even IFR CIG`s will give way to mainly VFR conditions by
morning. High pressure will then bring VFR conditions for the rest
of the day and into the evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  23  10  24 /  10   0  10  10
INL   1  17   4  24 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  14  25  13  27 /   0   0  10   0
HYR  17  27   7  26 / 100  10   0   0
ASX  18  24   9  25 /  90  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...DAP



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