Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 042146
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
346 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AT 330 PM...THE CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM ZERO AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS...ELY
AND GRAND MARAIS...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE CWA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE BIG STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS IS BASED ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NEARLY CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT WILL BE SO MARGINAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN CHANGES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FEW...AND NO MAJOR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
TRANSITION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WEEKEND PATTERN...WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS CAUSING A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP...AND EVEN TILTING TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN EVENTUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT MID LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING FROM
-15C OR SO ON THURSDAY TO -10C TO -5C OVER THE WEEKEND...RISING TO
NEAR 0C TO +5C EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH JUST THE EXPECTED MINOR
DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH PARTS OF THE LAKE ALREADY THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT EXTREMELY COLD /850MB
TEMPS -10 TO -12C RANGE/ AM NOT PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT. TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING UP TO NEAR
NORMAL...THURS NIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO...HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S..AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE
CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT FOR LONG AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AND SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. TEMPS IDENTICAL TO FRI/FRI NIGHT...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MILDER...HIGHS IN
MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

MON/TUE...WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID 40S...REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR/VFR CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RIGHT ON THE EDGE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT/NEAR
CALM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -14  12   5  34 /  10   0   0  10
INL -22  15   6  29 /   0   0   0  10
BRD -15  15   7  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -18  12   1  33 /  10   0   0  10
ASX -14  14   6  34 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





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