Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240312
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1012 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GRAND MARAIS HAS MAINTAINED DENSE FOG SINCE EARLIER THIS
EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL AREAS ARE ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS THAN 3 DEGREES AS OF 02Z ARE A GOOD
INDICATOR OF THE LOCATIONS WHERE DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...OR
HAS ALREADY FORMED. PLUS...WE WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND WEAK PRESSURE RISES. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
TO A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THE REST OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP CLOUD TRENDS SO FAR
THIS EVENING. WILL BE MONITORING FOR UPDATES TO DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THIS EVENING...AS GRAND MARAIS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING DENSE FOG.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL CLEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT
IT MAY NOT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

AVIATION UPDATE BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN CLOUD COVERAGE/FOG TONIGHT IN NW WI.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS IS
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MOVING EAST. BASED ON THE SREF/DLHWRF...
THIS EDGE SHOULD CLEAR NW WI BY 06Z. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG IN NW WI. WITH THE MOISTURE LEFTOVER
FROM THE EARLIER RAINS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG
FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD SO WILL PUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FROM 06Z-15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN NW WI COUNTIES. FOR
FRIDAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE W ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE E AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER A
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF AND HAVE NO POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS STRONG SFC LOW/CYCLOGENESIS PRACTICALLY
ON TOP OF THE FA. GEM/ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THERE MASS FIELDS.
USED A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR POPS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO WARRANT ADDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

KHYR ONLY LOCATION THAT REMAINS MVFR THIS EVENING AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. REMAINING SITES ARE ALREADY VFR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR KHYR AND KDLH TONIGHT AROUND 05Z...AND VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP TO IFR OR LIFR FOR BOTH LOCATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. KHIB ALSO AT RISK AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH THERE...BUT
THEY SHOULD DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN. KINL
AND KBRD NOT EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FOG OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY...AND THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  67  46  57 /   0   0   0   0
INL  41  69  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  68  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  43  66  45  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  44  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-
     037-038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ002>004-006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE







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