Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KDLH 221154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
554 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Mid- to upper-level trough continues to translate through the
Northland this morning. Despite a decent vort max progged by the
22.00z synoptic guidance, only light returns are currently seen on
radar this morning. I`m expecting this light precipitation to
continue through the afternoon as the mid-level shortwave
accelerates and moves off to the northeast tonight. The latest
RAP/GFS/NAM model soundings are indicating pretty weak isentropic
lift with this shortwave, which supports the light returns we are
seeing on radar. Still, the thermal profile continues to be very
close to the 0 degree C isotherm, so precipitation types continue to
be a wintry mix, including drizzle/freezing drizzle/light snow and
rain. Moreover, a moist low-level airmass remains situated over the
region, along with continued melting snow, which will support fog,
with some dense fog expected through the morning. With the potential
for freezing precipitation and fog already present, travel
conditions will continue to be hazardous this morning. The Winter Wx
Advisory has been expanded to include Koochiching and Itasca
counties, and new end time extended to 18z today, as precipitation
lingers across the region. The threat of slippery roads will
diminish this afternoon as temperatures increase to above freezing.

There looks to be a brief respite from the precipitation for most of
the area later this afternoon and evening as sfc high pressure
ridging takes control. However, slight chances of a wintry mix will
continue over our tier of counties along the International Border as
some lingering shortwave energy persists. A more widespread shot of
precipitation, albeit a small chance, will develop early Monday
morning as a ribbon of positive vorticity advection associated with
another mid-level shortwave moves through. This looks to be a pretty
quick-hitting wave as PoPs are expected to diminish just in time for
the Monday morning commute. There could remain some slick spots
during this time, but little to no precipitation accumulations are
expected. Temperatures look to continue their above-freezing trend,
with highs today and Monday in the mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

A shortwave will move through northern Minnesota and western Lake
Superior Monday evening into Ontario overnight. There may be some
light precipitation over the Arrowhead and forecast soundings show
lack of deeper moisture so freezing drizzle/drizzle will be
possible. Weak shortwave ridging will briefly move through the
region behind the departing shortwave and should keep the rest of
the region dry Monday night into Tuesday morning. The longwave
trough will be moving east into the central CONUS Tuesday/Wednesday
with an area of surface low pressure developing and moving into the
Central Plains on Tuesday. This low will then move northeast to the
eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday evening. The ECMWF and GFS are in
better agreement on the track of this low but still show some
differences.  Precipitation will move north on Tuesday reaching
southern portions of the Northland in the afternoon.  Highs Tuesday
will be in the thirties, so a mix of snow and rain will be possible.
A better chance for snow will occur Tuesday night, especially over
northwest Wisconsin. Colder air will be moving into the region
Wednesday as northwest flow develops. There will be a continued
chance for light snow into Wednesday with chances again highest over
northwest Wisconsin. Snowfall amounts from a dusting to around 3
inches looks most likely with this system from Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday. Northwest Wisconsin will have the best chance at
seeing 1 to around 3 inches of snowfall.

A chance for light snow/flurries will continue over much of the
region into Thursday and through the rest of the period along
portions of the South Shore. Mainly light snowfall will occur but
there will be a better chance for additional accumulation along
parts of the South Shore due to lake effect.

Temperatures will gradually cool through the week. Highs Wednesday
will be from 30 to 35 but will drop to the lower to mid twenties on


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 554 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Plenty of low level moisture will remain over the Northland
through the period leading to IFR/LIFR conditions. The visibility
will be more variable but should generally rise to 1 to 5 miles
through the day and will even go to P6SM in spots. An upper trough
will slowly move through the area and there will be areas of
drizzle, freezing drizzle, and snow especially this morning. The
best chance for precipitation will be over far northern Minnesota.

We expect more fog tonight but we are less certain how low the
visibility will get. At this time we dropped most TAFs to less
than 2SM but didn`t drop to a quarter or half mile yet.


DLH  36  31  37  27 /  20  20  10  10
INL  36  28  35  22 /  30  20  20  10
BRD  36  29  35  24 /  20  10  10   0
HYR  38  31  38  26 /  20  20  10  10
ASX  37  32  40  28 /  30  20  10  10


WI...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001>004-006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010>012-

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ010-018-025-026-



AVIATION...Melde is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.