Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 012322
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
622 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

AT 315PM/2015Z...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC.
ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WAS A SHORTWAVE OVER NW
WISCONSIN AND EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND IT WAS
MOVING TO THE SSE. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND VERY LIGHT WIND. THERE WAS A LAKE BREEZE DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THE LAKE BREEZE HAD MADE IT WELL
INLAND OVER THE ARROWHEAD. MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAD DEVELOPED 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE.
THERE WERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS...MOSTLY
OVER THE SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. THERE WERE A FEW
STORMS NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOW 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF SMALL
HAIL.

TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE CLEARING OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WILL MAKE CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
TONIGHT. I ADDED FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...PARTS OF THE NORTH
SHORE...AND THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS THE AREA MOST
LIKELY TO GET FOG BASED ON MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS.

SATURDAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY. LIGHT SW TO W WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO NE
MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY...AND WITH AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT
DROPPING SE IN CANADA. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHLAND. MIXED
LAYER CAPE COULD BUILD TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG AGAIN. WIND SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE LIGHT...SO THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS IS LOW. THERE
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

HAVE KEPT HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT DROPS OVER
THE REGION. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE WISCONSIN ZONES. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LVL RIDGING WITH A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE BORDERLAND/WESTERN LAKES SUPERIOR REGION
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH AND DRY AIR
LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD OF NORTHERN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEEP THE
FCST MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA
STRENGTHENS INTO A WARM FRONT...BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE TRENDED POPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS DOWN AS
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE DLH CWA.

HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS LOWER DEW POINTS/CLEARING/LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL
BE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY OF DLH THROUGH 02Z. LOSS OF
SUN WILL LEAD TO THE STORMS DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...VFR. LEFT IN
THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  80  56  74 /  10  20  50  40
INL  51  80  53  77 /   0  40  40  10
BRD  57  83  58  78 /  20  20  50  40
HYR  54  81  55  79 /  20  20  50  50
ASX  52  78  55  74 /  10  20  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF





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