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000
FXUS63 KDLH 180902
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
402 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. TODAY
SHOULD FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 FOR
MOST AREAS. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL EXIST AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...BUT THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER THAN MONDAY. IT WILL
BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE...BUT NOT AS COOL AS MONDAY.

A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MOISTER AIR WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE DID KEEP TONIGHT DRY DESPITE MODEST WAA...BUT FORCING
IS RATHER WEAK OVERALL. IT WILL BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS
COOL AS WE`VE SEEN TONIGHT.

INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF OUR MN ZONES...INTO EXTREME
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL AID IN SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE BOUNDARY DOES MAKE IT INTO FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
BY 00Z THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO
1000-1600J/KG. THE FORCING WEDNESDAY DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG...SO WE KEPT POPS AT OR LESS THAN 40 PERCENT FOR NOW. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
SEVENTIES. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE WITH THE NAM SHOWING WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY AT THE HEAD OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. IT`S STILL DIFFICULT TO GET
WINDS OFF SHORE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...SO AN
ADJUSTMENT TO ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE TWIN PORTS TO SAXON HARBOR MAY
BE NEEDED BUT WE`LL WAIT FOR MORE EVIDENCE BEFORE MAKING THAT
CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MDLS HAVE MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY WITH A WET SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS
PERIOD AS DEEP LAYERED MOIST FLOW INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND. A
SFC BDRY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE A DEEPENING MID LVL TROF OVER THE PACNW WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY SAT MORNING. A SFC LOW WILL EMERGE FROM
THE COLO PLAINS AND MOVE TOWARDS IA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME
COMBINED WITH INCREASING PWATS AND INSTABILITY. A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS BASED ON THE FCST SYNOPTIC SCALE MID
LVL PATTERN....POSSIBLE LOW LVL BDRY FOR ENHANCED BDRY LYR
CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING SFC LOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS PATTERN ALTHOUGH TIMING
OF POTENTIAL MCS/MCC CLUSTERS IS NOT SKILLFUL THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED TO INFLUENCE OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
TREND IN MIN TEMPS WILL BE UPWARD AS PROGRESSIVELY MORE HUMID AIR
ENTERS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE VFR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT.
SOME LOCAL FOG COULD BRING SOME VLIFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY
AT KHIB. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  48  75  56 /   0  10  30  40
INL  74  49  79  55 /  10  10  40  30
BRD  73  54  78  60 /  10  10  30  40
HYR  73  45  78  57 /   0   0  10  30
ASX  68  43  76  56 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM....CANNON
AVIATION...DAP