Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 280810
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
310 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Clear skies and calm winds have brought 300 am readings across
the borderland from 40 at Sea Gull Lake, 41 at Hibbing to 44 at
International Falls. The record low temperature for International
Falls for Today is 38F set in 1993. Further south, low clouds
have kept a hold on the region keeping overnight readings in the
50s so far. However, as the clearing line pushes through the
remainder of the forecast areas temperatures will continue to fall
through daybreak.

High pressure will allow mostly sunny skies and light west winds
to prevail today, along with afternoon temperatures in the 70s.
Showers and thunderstorms chances increase across the forecast
area Wednesday as an upper level low moved into Ontario; rotating
a short wave with sfc reflection cold front across the region. At
this time, the precipitation is on track to move into the
borderland zones Wednesday morning, reaching locations in northern
wisconsin Wed evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Wednesday night and Thursday...A cold front, associated with a
stacked low over far northern Ontario and southern Hudson Bay, and a
shortwave trough will drop through the Northland. Cool air will pour
into the Northland in the front`s wake, and the upper level trough
will provide synoptic lift. Temperatures could struggle to reach the
70s on Thursday. Rain showers are likely for much of the Northland,
especially northwest Wisconsin and the Minnesota Arrowhead where
around 0.25" of rainfall is forecast. There will below chances of
thunder, mainly ahead of and near the front overnight and early
Thursday, and then there could be up to a few hundred J/kg of most
unstable cape Thursday afternoon and early evening. Another
shortwave may drop down Thursday afternoon, only helping to maintain
the cloud cover. Think most models are underestimating the cloud
cover given the continued cold air advection with the relatively
humid flow, which should favor plenty of cumulus during the day, so
increased cloud cover. The 4km NAM typically performs well for these
types of situations of lingering overcast/broken cumulus, but it is
not within range yet. Once it is, may need to increase cloud cover
even more, further dashing hopes of seeing much afternoon and
evening sunshine.

Friday and Saturday...High pressure will move through the region,
providing a period of clearer skies. Cool northerly flow Friday will
limit highs to around 70 degrees, but light return flow Saturday
should see highs reach the middle 70s.

Sunday and Monday...The southerly flow will strengthen, bringing
more humidity into the region. Temperatures should reach the middle
70s. A passing shortwave trough and unstable conditions could bring
periods of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and early Monday
with the 30 knot low level jet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

stratus and fog affecting the terminals over the next 6 hours will
be the main concern. An area of stratus at issuance time was
affecting KDLH...KBRD and KHYR with borderline MVFR/VFR stratus.
This stratus to slowly sag south for the next several hours...and
should finally clear the remaining terminals by 10z. Terminals
that have already cleared or will clear shortly may be affected by
radiational fog...with visibilities bouncing between VFR and IFR
in short periods of time. Have attempted to time the most likely
time range for this fog for the affected locations. This fog to
dissipate around sunrise...which this time of year is between 10z
and 11z. After the fog dissipates in the morning expect VFR
conditions with winds less than 10kts through the remainder of the
TAF period. Mid clouds to move in towards the terminals from the
northwest after 03z, but will be above 5kft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  50  76  58 /   0   0  30  60
INL  75  50  77  55 /   0  20  40  40
BRD  76  52  80  58 /   0   0  30  40
HYR  75  47  78  57 /   0   0  10  40
ASX  73  47  78  57 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Graning
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...LE



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