Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 282049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED EAST OF REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MID LVL
CENTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. INTENSITY OF UPPER LOW AND
POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED A WELL DEFINED LOW LVL
TROUGH TO EXIST FROM THE SFC LOW WEST INTO SERN MANITOBA.THE DEEPLY
CYCLONIC AND RELATIVELY SATURATED NATURE OF THE REGIONAL ATMOSPHERE
HAS PRODUCED EXTENSIVE OVERCAST WITH A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. PTYPES REMAIN LIQUID OVER THE CWA AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER A MIX OF RASN...OR EVEN ALL SNOW...EXISTS JUST ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE WRN CWA. SUSPECT SOME WET SNOW IS OCCURRING IN WRN
KOOCH COUNTY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014


TONIGHT...THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
SFC/MID LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS MID LVL LOW MIGRATES EAST...THE
SFC TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH FROM ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PTYPE WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW.
VERY TOUGH TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS
DUE TO THE MARGINAL BDRY LYR THERMAL PROFILES AND DEPENDENCY OF
DIABATIC COOLING/SNOW PRODUCTION UPON AREAS OF ENHANCED VERTICAL
MOTION. HI-RES PTYPE OUTPUT FROM HRRR IS RATHER SLOW TO MAKE THE
TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THE NAM12/RUC13 ARE FASTER IN
COOLING THE NEAR SFC LAYER SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT. GIVEN
THAT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DIURNAL WARM PERIOD...WOULD THINK THAT WITH ADVENT OF NOCTURNAL BDRY
LYR COOLING...WE SHOULD SEE THE TRANSITION OCCUR IN MOST OF NE MN
ZONES BY MID/LATE EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH ON
ELEVATED DECKS OR GRASSY SURFACES. THE PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTS FROM
SREF AND NARRE-TL FAVOR THE ARROWHEAD AND THE GOGEBIC RANGE FOR
SOME ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN BASED ON BUFKIT MOMENTUM
PROFILES SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY LARGE SFC PRESS
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA UNTIL EARLY MORNING.

TOMORROW...GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SFC/MID
LVL LOWS SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING
IS FCST...MAJORITY OF NWP SUGGESTS RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR 2K TO 3K FT. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY
FCST  FOR NOW. PRECIP SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH EXCEPT OVER ERN
EDGE OF CWA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK
EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING AND PRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW THROUGH THE REGION. A MORE POTENT
UPPER S/W WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH AND USHER IN ADDITIONAL HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THUR AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW THUR NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW...FROM
NRN MANITOBA SEWD THROUGH WRN ONTARIO AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
OCCUR OVER WRN ONTARIO...CLIPPING THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NRN
WI AND EWD INTO THE U.P. OF MICH. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE S/W MOVES THROUGH AND MODIFIES THERMAL
PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. COULD SEE AROUND 1
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATE OVER THE ARROWHEAD...WITH TRACE AMTS AROUND
THE TWIN PORTS. THE AREA EXPECTING TO SEE THE MOST WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES
WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALLOW A QUICK 1-2 INCHES TO FALL DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAVORABLE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP/MOIST BL LAPSE
RATES WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMTS IN THIS AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND
FURTHER EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...A SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE FROM
THIS NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEN WARM
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY PULLS
EASTWARD. POCKETS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF DEEPER SATURATION AND COOLER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES AT HIB AND INL. A CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW IS MOST LIKELY AT INL...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND
TYPE DECREASES AFTER 22Z...NECESSITATING IN SWITCH BACK TO
PREVAILING VCSH.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CIGS LOWERING INTO IFR CATEGORIES
OVERNIGHT. THERE SEEMS TO BE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO MAINTAIN WIND
GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS EASING WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  41  33  43 /  60  10  10  20
INL  31  39  30  40 /  70  10  10  30
BRD  31  43  33  47 /  20   0  10  10
HYR  34  44  32  47 /  50  10  10  30
ASX  35  44  33  47 /  60  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ144-145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK






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