Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 040547
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FEW SHOWERS WERE PERSISTING OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES AT 04Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE UPSTREAM IN CANADA...BUT WILL MAINLY AFFECT
COOK COUNTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE OF THE ARROWHEAD...WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...THE TWIN PORTS AND NW WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN WHEN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT HIB/BRD/HYR AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
BKN/SCT SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  73  53  72 /   0   0  20  30
INL  48  72  51  72 /   0   0  30  30
BRD  53  78  54  77 /   0  10  30  30
HYR  49  75  55  76 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  52  74  54  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...HUYCK


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