Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KDLH 010805

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
305 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

High pressure over the Northern Plains will shift east into the
Northland today and tonight, promoting clear skies and very light
wind flow. Highs will be in the lower 70s today, and tonight`s
lows in the lower to middle 40s. The NAM surface condensation
pressure deficits suggest there could be fog across inland
northwest Wisconsin and nearby areas of northeast Minnesota late
tonight, so added patchy fog to the forecast.

The high pressure will shift east Saturday, and the light
southerly flow will begin the subtle warming trend into early next
week. There will likely be some mid-level cloud cover associated
with Friday night and early Saturday convection over North Dakota
and southern Manitoba blowing southeast into the Northland. Highs
should be in the middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A typical July pattern is shaping up across the Northland for the
long term period. Upper level ridging will flatten somewhat for
much of the work week, becoming more zonal from early to mid week.
A weak area of low pressure moving along the international border
area will set off a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
north Sunday, and continuing across much of the northern half of
the CWA through Monday Night. As is typical with this pattern,
it`s hard to pin down specific chances for precipitation, but the
overall picture is that there will be some isolated to scattered
showers and storms. One shortwave that could set off more
widespread showers and thunderstorms would move through Tuesday
Night and Wednesday, but even that system appears to be quite
weak. The concern would be the development of an MCS in the
increasingly warm and moist airmass. A more amplified pattern is
possible later in the work week, especially according to the
ECMWF, which would bring a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the end of the work week. High temperatures will
range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s for most of the long term
period, with the warmest day most likely on Wednesday. Overnight
lows will be in the 50s and 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A band of MVFR stratus is slowly sliding south across several
terminals as of 05z, with ceilings generally around 25hft. It
should move out of all terminals by approximately 08z, with VFR
conditions then continuing through the remainder of the TAF
period. North winds at some locations in the 10-15knot range
should diminish by 08z with winds then dropping off to less than
10 knots for the remainder of the TAF period, even as they slowly
swing around to the west after 18z.


DLH  71  50  75  54 /   0   0   0  10
INL  73  43  77  51 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  73  50  76  56 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  73  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  73  49  76  53 /   0   0   0   0


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...DAP/LE is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.