Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 282020
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
320 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Wrap around cool mid level temperatures and moisture has kept low
clouds over the forecast area today. Afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach to the upper 50s to low 60s for most areas
today. The instability and northeast flow also produced light
rain/sprinkles over northern wisconsin today.

As the area of low pressure currently residing near Chicago
continues to slowly sink southward through thursday, it will
allow for a ridge axis to slide east into the western Lake
Superior region. This ridging will bring more sun and warmer
temperatures into Thursday. However, have increased cloud cover
tomorrow as latest BUFR soundings show lingering low level
moisture around 3kft trapped under the mid level subsidence
inversion.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Summary: A large area of low pressure over Kentucky will
retrograde or lift north to mainland Michigan by Saturday night
and move through New England or the Mid-Atlantic early next week.
The dominating nature of this low will maintain a few days of
light easterly flow and daily similar weather across the
Northland, Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will likely be
about 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals through the period.
The next best chance for precipitation will likely be towards the
middle of next week.

A large, vertically-stacked and cut-off area of low pressure will
be over Kentucky as of Thursday evening. The low will retrograde
or lift north through the rest of the week, reaching mainland
Michigan by Saturday night, then move through New England or the
Mid-Atlantic through early next week. The low will act to block
any significant movement in a ridge of surface high pressure
stretching from northern Ontario, through northern and western
Minnesota, to the Central Plains. Therefore, the Northland can
expect a few days of light easterly flow and relatively similar
weather, Friday through Sunday. While northeast Minnesota should
have daily mostly clear skies, save for some midday inland (from
Lake Superior) scattered cumulus, northwest Wisconsin will be a
bit cloudier due to its greater proximity to the area of low
pressure. There may even be some very light rain associated with
the low that may reach parts of northwest Wisconsin Saturday.
Daily highs will be in the lower to middle 60s, and lows in the
lower to middle 40s.

It may get even a bit warmer early next week. The departing low
will allow to finally shift east, and for low pressure to begin
moving east from the western US into the Plains. Breezy southeast
flow will develop across the Northland Monday and Tuesday ahead of
the approaching low pressure. The low pressure will bring the
Northland`s next best chance for any significant precipitation,
but the new model runs continue to delay when the precipitation
moves into the Northland from the west. It now looks like the rain
will hold off until at least late Monday night or Tuesday, but
possibly as late as Wednesday. Kept a slight chance of thunder
given the degree of warmth in the southerly flow aloft, the
relatively strong 40 to 50 knot low-level jet, and strength of the
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The cool north-northeast flow across northeast Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin will continue into tonight, while a high
pressure will slowly move into the region from the northwest. The
cool flow has helped develop widespread broken/overcast MVFR
cumulus ceilings across the Northland today, with conditions
further becoming cloudier than earlier forecasts. The HRRR and
4-km NAM have been doing really well in depicting the widespread
low-level cloud cover, where most other models have been much
clearer. The HRRR and 4-km NAM continue to maintain this cloud
cover through at least Wednesday, despite the high pressure
nudging into the region tonight and Wednesday. I trended the
aviation forecasts cloudier, adding longer periods of MVFR
ceilings today into tonight. May need to keep the MVFR even
longer, but there is still a bit of chance of enough scattering
of the cloud cover before sunset. Whatever cloud cover remains by
sunset will have a difficult time dissipating overnight.

Since it looks like tonight will be cloudier than earlier
forecast, the threat of fog developing later tonight does not
appear to be as much as before. However, wherever there are
pockets within the cloud cover overnight, fog could develop.
Therefore, kept some lower IFR/MVFR visibility later tonight to
suggest the possible fog.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  61  46  64 /   0   0   0   0
INL  41  61  42  67 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  64  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  45  63  43  68 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  48  60  46  63 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ140>147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Graning
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Grochocinski


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