Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 290805
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
305 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A semi-vertically-stacked area of low pressure over northern
Ontario will not be moving anywhere in a hurry through Tuesday. It
will mainly spin and slowly drift north and east through Ontario.
This low will maintain cool, humid, and breezy west-northwest flow
across the Northland. Multiple shortwave troughs will drop through
the area, helping to develop rain showers.

Today will be the wetter and breezier day. Scattered showers will
develop across the Northland by late this morning. The GFS, NAM,
RAP, and SREF indicate there will be up to a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE over the higher terrain of the Arrowhead, and in the far
southeast forecast in northwest Wisconsin. These areas could see
some isolated, weak thunderstorms. Expect highs in the middle to
upper 50s, with afternoon gusts of 15 to 25 mph. There could be
stray gusts to 30 mph with the heavier showers and the storms.

The showers will taper off this evening around and after sunset.
Another shortwave trough will probably spread additional showers
out of Canada into northern Minnesota later in the night.
Tonight`s cloud cover will bolster temperatures to the lower 40s.

Tuesday will be a similar story to Monday, but not quite as wet
and windy. Also, the threat of thunder looks very low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

The upper level trough will continue to move east Tuesday night
into Wednesday with northwest flow over the region. A low level
ridge will be in place over western Minnesota/eastern Dakotas by
Wednesday afternoon but will weaken as it moves east into
Thursday. There will be a chance for showers Tuesday evening over
eastern portions of the Northland and over the Arrowhead Thursday,
but most other areas will be dry. Highs Wednesday will be in the
mid sixties to around seventy...and in the upper sixties to mid
seventies Thursday.

Friday also looks like a dry day with shortwave ridging over the
Northern Plains and a surface ridge extending south into the
region. Highs will range from the mid sixties to lower seventies
but be cooler around Lake Superior as off lake winds develop.

The models start to diverge in their solutions over the weekend
and confidence is lower than normal into early next week. The
differences are in how they treat a northern stream shortwave that
will start to affect the region Saturday continuing into Sunday.
The GFS is now stronger with the shortwave but also seems to be
suffering from convective feedback as the wave continues into
Minnesota. The ECMWF which had a stronger low/wave with previous
runs is now weaker and keeps much of the area dry through the
weekend with high pressure. We have a chance for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast over the weekend over portions of
the Northland but overall confidence in one model is low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Cyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft in combination with
diurnal heating and some weak impulses aloft will keep showers in
the terminal forecasts through much of the TAF period. A surge of
colder air moving into the area from the northwest will sweep some
IFR ceilings into the terminals beginning shortly after issuance
time and continuing through at least 15z, slowly improving to MVFR
afterwards. Ceilings are likely to deteriorate again after 02z,
but this is most likely farther north and have limited this only
to KINL for now. Where clouds clear for a short while for the next
several hours fog may form, but have left out for now and will
have to monitor for later fog development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  43  54  42 /  50  20  30  20
INL  54  44  54  42 /  70  30  40  20
BRD  57  45  57  43 /  30  10  30  10
HYR  58  45  56  43 /  50  40  40  20
ASX  58  45  56  44 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...LE


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