Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 181131 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECWMF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD OVC MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL SCATTERING AND LIFTING LATER THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
REDEVELOP VFR CONDITIONS BY SOMETIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE VFR
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  56  42 /   0  10  30  10
INL  46  37  59  40 /   0  20  30   0
BRD  49  40  62  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  47  31  57  41 /   0  10  20   0
ASX  48  31  56  42 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-140-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





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