Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 220529
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1229 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Main concern will be showers and possible thunderstorms wednesday

current surface analysis indicates mostly sunny skies across most
of the region this afternoon with sprinkles possible in cook
county near GNA. An area of high pressure will move east tonight
as a low pressure moves through NE. The low will move through
Iowa wednesday spreading precipitation north toward the forecast
area. Showers and possible thunderstorms will move southwest to
northeast wednesday afternoon. Capes will reach the 500-1000 level
across the brainerd lakes...aitkin..and leech lake areas
wednesday afternoon and evening. Will put scattered thunderstorms
in forecast for areas mainly south of highway 2 for wednesday
afternoon. The storms should stay below severe limits but can`t
rule it out in the brainerd lakes areas if the higher capes drift
north.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

The strong upper low and surface low that began affecting the area
in the short term will continue to affect the area through Wednesday
evening, with the surface low shifting southeast of the forecast
area, and the upper low shifting across the area during the evening
hours.  This will keep showers and thunderstorms going across the
area during the evening before diminishing overnight.  Thunder
remains possible in the stronger convergence and closer to the
surface low along the southern flanks of the forecast area, but
otherwise we should have just showers.

Dry and quieter weather should settle in for Thursday, Thursday
night and early Friday as a strong ridge of high pressure builds
across the area.  Temperatures should warm from highs on Thursday in
the 70s, to upper 70s and lower 80s on Friday as we get back into
the southerly flow on the west side of the ridge.

Saturday is our next concern for severe weather.  A strong warm air
advection regime sets up for Saturday ahead of a developing surface
low over the high plains and an upper low over the northern Rockies.
Thankfully this is a different set up from last Sunday, but there is
still some potential for severe storms.  The upper low will be in
the vicinity Sunday and Monday with northwest flow for Tuesday,
which should produce cooler temperatures and less thunder potential
through that period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Mostly clear skies and vfr conditions will prevail through Wednesday
morning. High clouds advance from the south and west through the
morning. rain showers accompanied by lowering ceilings will push
into the KBRD and KINL vicinities during the afternoon
hours...reaching KHIB, KDLH and KHYR closer to 00z Thursday. The
best instability and main threat for thunder will be at KBRD and
KHYR where have introduced vcts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  67  48  74 /   0  50  60   0
INL  45  69  49  78 /   0  60  30   0
BRD  55  74  53  75 /  10  60  50   0
HYR  49  75  51  75 /   0  60  70   0
ASX  48  67  49  74 /   0  50  70  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stewart
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...JJM



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