Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 272039
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
339 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR SHORT IS RAIN TONIGHT AND PTYPE TUE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN MN.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE MN
AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NW WI. THERE ARE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN THIS EVENING ACROSS NW WI AND THE RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO END BY THIS EVENING IN THE WEST.

TWO AREA OF LOW PRESSURES HAS COMBINED INTO A LARGE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. THE AREA OF SHOWERS OCCURRING NOW IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL BEING DRAGGED ROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN TONIGHT SPREADING IN PRECIPITATION
FROM THE WEST. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MN WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO NRN MN TOMORROW ALONG WITH COLDER AIR
WHICH WILL TURN THE PRECIPITATION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE AND THE INLAND AREAS OF THE ARROWHEAD. THERE ILL BE
ABOUT AN INCH OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COLD CORE LOW WILL BE ROTATING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUE
NIGHT AND WED MORNING WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME SO
RAIN AND/OR SNOW AMTS WILL BE LIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
LATE WED AND SLIDE TO THE EAST QUICKLY WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT S/W EXPECTED TO DROP IN FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SEWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY. A FAVORABLE NRLY
FLOW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE INTO FRI AFTERNOON. ONLY LIGHT SNOW
AMTS ARE EXPECTED. THE DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SW AND USHERS
IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF RATHER MILD WITH MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
A SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE FELT THUR INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
DURING CLEAR NIGHTS INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL TIGHTEN AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING BRD ONLY RESULTING IN NOMINAL
VSBY REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 6 AND 10 MILES. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO MVFR
CATEGORIES AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. A FEW
TERMINALS MAY FLIRT WITH IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT PREVAILING IFR.
RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE...RAIN EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT INL...WHERE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FAVORED AFTER 11Z TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  45  34  42 /  50  50  40  20
INL  39  42  32  40 /  70  60  50  30
BRD  39  45  32  45 /  40  40  10   0
HYR  41  48  35  44 /  40  40  40  10
ASX  42  50  36  44 /  50  60  60  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK






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