Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 260908
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG
AT TIMES AS WELL. ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER NW WI...AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TRAILING SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD
IN OVER NRN MN THIS MORNING...BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER S/W FROM
THE N/NW COMBINED WITH A NEWD PROGRESSING INVERTED TROUGH OVER MID
MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE EVENTUALLY CATCHES UP TO THE SFC FEATURE. A
STRONG SURGE OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIFT ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH
THE SYSTEM AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NW WI...WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED MORNING. A BACK
DOOR WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND
80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN OUR NW COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANCE WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA...WITH
THE ECMWF A FAIR AMOUNT SLOWER. OUR FORECAST IS A BIT OF A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NW TO SE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE GFS HAS RETREATED FROM THEIR EARLIER WETTER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...IN FAVOR OF THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. MONDAY ALSO
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE
COOL...AND WE MAY NEED SOME TYPE OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES AS THE
NIGHT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 70S...BUT DROP BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

EXPECT LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KDLH/KBRD AS LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DAYTIME RAINFALL ALLOW FOG
TO DEVELOP. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME BEFORE 12Z AT KHIB/KHYR. CONFIDENCE BETWEEN THE GFS MOS/NAM
MOS WAS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AT THESE SITES... SO PUT IN TEMPO GROUPS
ACCORDINGLY. KINL WILL BE THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS
MORNING INVERSIONS ERODE. HOWEVER... MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL
LINGER... AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  50  81  50 /  20  20  30  20
INL  78  50  80  50 /  20  20  30  20
BRD  72  54  82  56 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  71  49  81  51 /  50  20  20  10
ASX  64  47  83  45 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MCLOVIN





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