Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 301200
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
700 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

The Northland will reside underneath weak high pressure ridging
today, which will lead to sunny skies (at least this morning), and
much warmer temps than the past several days. However, the
forecast is not straight-forward, and there are several minor
details that cast some uncertainty to the forecast for this
afternoon and evening. First, with full sun this morning, mixing
will be considerably deeper than yesterday, resulting in more
robust instability by afternoon. In addition, a weak wave sliding
southeastward across Ontario will reinforce a weak frontal zone
lying across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. These two
factors, along with support from much of the short range model
suite, seem to suggest some potential for isolated to scattered
showers/T-Storms this afternoon and evening - especially across
areas north of US Highway 2. We have introduced PoPs for this time
range, and included a mention of thunder.

Much higher chances for organized rain and T-Storms should then
spread west to east across the region later tonight and Tuesday as
some form of a decaying MCS translates eastward from the Dakotas.
The going forecast had this handled reasonably well, so we did not
make any major changes other than to fine tune the timing and
adjust PoPs upward a bit. An easterly surge of cooler air off Lake
Superior appears rather likely with this system, and Tuesday could
end up being another rather cold, rainy and foggy day for many
places in the Twin Ports vicinity and points north and northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Strong, nearly stacked low pressure system over northwest Minnesota
Tuesday evening will move slowly northeast through Tuesday night and
Wednesday, keeping high chances for showers and thunderstorms over
the area through even Wednesday night.  It will mean another period
of wet, stormy and gloomy weather for the area with highs only in
the 60s to near 70 for Wednesday.

Ridging will build across the area Thursday and Thursday night,
bringing quieter weather into early Friday.  Colder air brought into
the area behind the exiting upper low system will keep temperatures
on the cool side, with highs in the 60s Thursday again.

Another fairly strong shortwave will dive into the area beginning on
Friday, moving in faster than previous model runs had it.  The
approach of this storm will bring warmer temperatures for Friday
along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms that
continue through much of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Instability and weak lift will create scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the terminals, beginning with more isolated
activity this morning, becoming more widespread during the
afternoon and early evening, with another wave moving in after
06z. Timing and placement are highly uncertain, so have put in
VCSH and VCTS in the fm groups, with VCTS groups where thunder is
most likely, and we will have to amend as convective trends become
better defined. 12z-13z early this morning some fog will affect
KHIB and KHYR with IFR visibilities.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  49  51  47 /  10  70  80  50
INL  78  51  61  49 /  20  60  80  60
BRD  80  56  69  51 /  20  80  60  20
HYR  80  50  72  54 /  10  80  80  50
ASX  79  47  62  49 /  10  60  80  60

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...LE


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