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000
FXUS63 KDLH 232338
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
638 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT. THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR
MOST AREAS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND THE MIN TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE LAKE. WILL HAVE AREAS OF
FROST ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES AND LOW POPS IN SRN CASS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
HELP TO KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE WEST DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. THE
MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD COULD BE RATHER ACTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST ONE OR TWO
WARM FRONTS LIFTING THROUGH OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...WHICH COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE SECOND WARM
FRONT INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR LATER IN THE WEEK COULD BE
THE MORE ACTIVE FRONT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CLEAR IDEA ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS SECOND WARM FRONT MAY BE THE
MOST LIKELY OPPORTUNITY OF THE WEEK FOR THE NORTHLAND AT SEEING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  63  43  58 /   0  10  30  20
INL  31  70  44  64 /   0  10  30  20
BRD  35  69  49  61 /   0  50  60  40
HYR  23  66  43  63 /   0  10  30  20
ASX  31  57  41  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE