Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 032053
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
353 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...REMAINING LIGHT
TOMORROW.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY HAS BEEN FIRE WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. ON THE FIRE WEATHER SIDE...CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY
EVOLVED AS EXPECTED WITH VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT HAS LEAD
TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THERE WAS A REPORT OF VERY
SMALL HAIL WITH A STORM THAT WENT ACROSS GRAND MARAIS EARLIER THIS
MORNING.

TONIGHT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE
AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT WITH A LIGHT NORTH
WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MID 30S TO NEAR 40...NEAR NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...NOT AS WARM BUT STILL A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND. HIGHS MID 50S TO MID 60S...AGAIN JUST ABOUT
NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE
DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT WITH WEAKER WINDS THE FIRE
DANGER WILL NOT BE AS HIGH SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER RED FLAG
WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHETHER
OR NOT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS. GFS/GEM ARE
RAIN FREE WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM HAVE SHOWERS BUT DIFFERENT PLACEMENT
TO THE QPF FIELD. USED A CONSENSUS WHICH FAVORED A DRY FORECAST AND
REMOVED THE RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS IS THURSDAY MORNING
IN A NARROW STRIP OVER NE MN INTO NW WI. THIS IS WHEN THE MOST
INTENSE BUT SMALL VORTICITY MAX DRIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS VORTICITY
MAX QUICKLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE NO MENTION OF RAIN. NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN
ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY CLIPS THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD. MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SFC LOW IN ONTARIO AND ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. USED A BLENDED APPROACH TO POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
A THUNDER MENTION AS THIS FRONT WILL BE VIGOROUS. THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY IS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA LATE
AND HAVE ALIGNED THE THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. BEFORE IT
ARRIVES...THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
CHEQUAMEGON NATIONAL FOREST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEARBY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST. NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH NE MN AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST. IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NW WI BY 00Z. AREAS OF SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL
BE FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHOWERS AND AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  56  33  73 /   0   0   0  20
INL  34  61  37  80 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  39  61  38  80 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  37  57  33  72 /  10   0   0  10
ASX  38  54  32  71 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ018-025-026-
     033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF


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