Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 251919
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
219 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

***18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM***

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
NW WISCONSIN.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH A PRECEDING SFC
LOW LIFTING TO THE NE INTO SRN MN. BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM AN
EMBEDDED S/W COMBINED WITH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN HAVE BEEN THE
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS PRODUCING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SFC LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE TODAY AND AS THE UPPER LOW CATCHES
UP FROM THE WEST...AN ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NRN/NERN MN AND ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION. HAVE SEEN REPORTS OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS MORNING. MAINLY
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE AND KEEP THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF STRATIFORM RAIN TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...BUT ALSO KEEP A TRAILING TROUGH/COLD
FRONT BEHIND ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND KEEP THE RAIN
SHOWERS GOING INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT ON THE NRN EDGE OF APPROACHING INVERTED
TROUGH. THIS INCOMING TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
OVER NW WI TUE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S. THE COOLEST AIR WILL BE FOUND AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE A NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. WARMER AIR WILL BE FOUND AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH
MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND
50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS TO THE EAST UNDER THE CLOUD COVER...AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TO THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD WILL START OUT A BIT UNSETTLED...BUT WILL
TRANSITION TOWARD A MAINLY DRY PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL EXIT THE NORTHLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THERE
WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR EXTREME WEST LATE IN THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE MOST ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE ON THE
DRY SIDE. THE GFS DOES BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS DRY. TENDENCY AT
THIS POINT IS TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND 80. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAINLY IFR-LIFR CONDTIONS AT ALL TAFS SITES EXCEPT INL DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDTIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR BREAKS BUT IT WILL STAY IFR
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT INL...CONDTIONS WIL BE VFR TO MVFR WITH
CONDTIONS DROPPING TO IFR BY THIS EVENING. CONDTION S WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  48  78 /  60  20  20  30
INL  51  79  49  79 /  40  20  20  40
BRD  50  74  52  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  54  71  49  80 /  20  40  20  10
ASX  46  65  45  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...STEWART







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