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495
FXUS63 KDLH 290110
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
810 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Some holes have opened in the clouds, but expect them to fill back
in, especially in northwest Wisconsin where the northeast flow
off of Lake Superior will continue to generate cloud cover. Have
removed the fog mention as a result.

UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Minor update to adjust for more cloud cover. If the cloud cover
continues to persist, potential for fog goes way down. Future
updates will address this further. Otherwise, high pressure is
settling over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Wrap around cool mid level temperatures and moisture has kept low
clouds over the forecast area today. Afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach to the upper 50s to low 60s for most areas
today. The instability and northeast flow also produced light
rain/sprinkles over northern wisconsin today.

As the area of low pressure currently residing near Chicago
continues to slowly sink southward through thursday, it will
allow for a ridge axis to slide east into the western Lake
Superior region. This ridging will bring more sun and warmer
temperatures into Thursday. However, have increased cloud cover
tomorrow as latest BUFR soundings show lingering low level
moisture around 3kft trapped under the mid level subsidence
inversion.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Summary: A large area of low pressure over Kentucky will
retrograde or lift north to mainland Michigan by Saturday night
and move through New England or the Mid-Atlantic early next week.
The dominating nature of this low will maintain a few days of
light easterly flow and daily similar weather across the
Northland, Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will likely be
about 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals through the period.
The next best chance for precipitation will likely be towards the
middle of next week.

A large, vertically-stacked and cut-off area of low pressure will
be over Kentucky as of Thursday evening. The low will retrograde
or lift north through the rest of the week, reaching mainland
Michigan by Saturday night, then move through New England or the
Mid-Atlantic through early next week. The low will act to block
any significant movement in a ridge of surface high pressure
stretching from northern Ontario, through northern and western
Minnesota, to the Central Plains. Therefore, the Northland can
expect a few days of light easterly flow and relatively similar
weather, Friday through Sunday. While northeast Minnesota should
have daily mostly clear skies, save for some midday inland (from
Lake Superior) scattered cumulus, northwest Wisconsin will be a
bit cloudier due to its greater proximity to the area of low
pressure. There may even be some very light rain associated with
the low that may reach parts of northwest Wisconsin Saturday.
Daily highs will be in the lower to middle 60s, and lows in the
lower to middle 40s.

It may get even a bit warmer early next week. The departing low
will allow to finally shift east, and for low pressure to begin
moving east from the western US into the Plains. Breezy southeast
flow will develop across the Northland Monday and Tuesday ahead of
the approaching low pressure. The low pressure will bring the
Northland`s next best chance for any significant precipitation,
but the new model runs continue to delay when the precipitation
moves into the Northland from the west. It now looks like the rain
will hold off until at least late Monday night or Tuesday, but
possibly as late as Wednesday. Kept a slight chance of thunder
given the degree of warmth in the southerly flow aloft, the
relatively strong 40 to 50 knot low-level jet, and strength of the
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

High pressure is building into northern Minnesota at the start of
the forecast. VFR is expected. Have removed the mention of fog
from all sites but HYR, where there is the potential for some
brief clearing and subsequent fog formation. Clouds will persist
until afternoon per latest model guidance when dry air from the
high finally erodes the clouds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  61  46  64 /  10   0   0   0
INL  43  61  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  45  64  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  46  63  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  49  60  46  63 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-142-
     143-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...Graning
AVIATION...GSF