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000
FXUS63 KDLH 010534
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1134 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

ADDED AREAS OF FOG FROM ELO TO CKC AND N TO THE BORDER PER SFC OBS
AND CALLS TO SPOTTERS. ADDED PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.
DID SOME MINOR ADJUSTING TO THE LES SHOWER MENTION FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO NW AS NONE HAS DEVELOPED YET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

A COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE FA WITH A LIGHT NLY FLOW BEHIND IT
OVER THE FA ATTM. THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO ND. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE
IN THE GRIDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DELAY THE FLURRIES A
BIT AS ONLY ACTIVITY IS N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. ALSO DELAYED THE
LES SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AS LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES
MODELS SUGGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

A COLD FRONT DROPPED ACROSS THE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. AT 300 PM...SFC OBS SHOWED THE FRONT HAD JUST EXITED THE WIS
ZONES TO THE SE. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE
30S ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST BEFORE THE COLD AIR AND
LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS ARRIVED. CURRENT VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LEADING EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS IS ALONG A LINE FROM KPKD...TO
KGPZ...KDLH...AND SPREADS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLD FLURRIES IN THE
NRN ZONES THERE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE SATURATED
LAYER EXTENDS TO 6-7 KFT BY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SMALL
POSSIBILITY THAT THE FLURRIES MAY MIX WITH -FZDZ AT TIMES AS CLOUD
TOPS TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE AROUND NEGATIVE 8-10 C. HOWEVER....HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IN FCST ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND CURRENT
SFC OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM HAVE ONLY REPORTED -SN TODAY.

HIGH RES MODELS HAVE HAVE GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THAT AS THE
H85 TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST...AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST
WINDS TRANSLATING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE ARE BORDERLINE AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE/ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
TO TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH CHC POPS
OVER THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE WISCONSIN SNOW BELT WITH ISOLATED
1-2" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE LAKE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...FAVORING LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE
WESTERN TIP AND NORTH SHORE AREAS. LIGHT ACCUMULATION AROUND AN
INCH IS EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM TWO HARBORS
TO FINLAND AND LUTSEN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

AN ACTIVE WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
EXPECTED AND AN ARCTIC COLD BLAST ON TAP FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

WEAK EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
EARLY...WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR SO. A LEAD S/W WILL
TRACK EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS MON AFTERNOON AND TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THIS S/W WILL HAVE
WEAK WAA ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT A LARGE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.
SO...MDT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE ACROSS THE WRN
AND NRN COUNTIES. COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION TUE NIGHT
BEFORE A LARGER SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SW AND STRONGER
FORCING BARRELS IN FROM THE WEST FROM AN EJECTING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES. THE FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY DYNAMIC...WITH A STRONG JET
STREAM TO THE SOUTH AND A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE SFC FRONT
PRODUCING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. THE
SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON WED AND
POSSIBLY ALLOW TEMP PROFILES TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...MAINLY OVER NW WI. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NE MN ON WED/WED
NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY AM TS POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NE
LATE WED NIGHT AND THUR AND USHERS IN A VERY COLD AIR MASS BEHIND
IT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH EVEN COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED FRI AND
SAT. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL PRODUCE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS INTO THE WEEKEND. AN EARLY TASTE
OF JAN/FEB IN THE NORTHLAND IS ON THE WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS COVERED THE TERMINALS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS WERE MOVING IN DIFFERENT
DIRECTIONS ALLOWING FOR SOME HOLES TO BRIEFLY OPEN. THESE HOLES
ARE VERY SHORT LIVED AND FILLING QUICKLY. IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SOME PATCHY BR. THE BR AND IFR CIGS/MVFR
VSBYS SHOULD END BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINING.
ONLY BRD IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  32  21  31 /  30  30  30  40
INL  14  26  17  30 /  10  10  30  40
BRD  17  31  22  32 /  10  10  40  60
HYR  18  34  19  33 /  10  10  20  30
ASX  26  34  22  34 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GSF