Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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970
FXUS63 KDLH 272017
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
317 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

A deep southerly flow has drawn plenty of moisture into the
Northland today with afternoon dewpoints in the mid fifties to
around sixty and PWAT values over an inch. The NAM/GFS both
indicate PWAT values to 1.5 inches over northwest Wisconsin by 00z
Sat.

Rain was widespread across much of the Northland this afternoon
and the dry east/southeast flow that had kept much of northwest
Wisconsin dry this morning has been overtaken by increased
moisture and now rain was increasing in coverage. Most of the
models are in decent agreement showing a gradual diminishing trend
in the coverage of the rain tonight as the the stronger moisture
transport shifts east.

As the upper trough progresses east toward the area on Saturday,
we expect showers and some thunderstorms to increase in coverage
through the day. We don`t expect the widespread rain coverage that
occurred today though. We expect highs Saturday in the upper
sixties to lower seventies for most areas. It will be several
degrees cooler near Lake Superior with an onshore wind
continuing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The coming week will provide more opportunities for showers and
storms, primarily Sunday and then again Tuesday through Wednesday.
Memorial Day looks great for those that like 70s and sunshine, and
slightly cooler than normal weather could settle into the region for
the latter half of the week.

An upper level trough will lift through the Minnesota and Wisconsin
region Saturday night and Sunday, likely resulting in showers across
the Northland from the synoptic lift generated by the passing
trough. The trough will exit to the east Sunday afternoon, but
daytime heating could produce scattered showers and some storms in
the westerly flow.

High pressure will move into the region Monday, providing a warm and
fairly sunny Memorial Day for the Northland. The upper level ridge
will shift through the Northland Monday night, then southwest flow
aloft will pump moisture into the Northland. Shortwaves lifting
through the flow will probably bring showers and storms into the
region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Meanwhile, low pressure will be in
the Plains, and will move through the Northland Wednesday and early
Thursday. The passing low pressure will likely bring more showers
and storms.

It may not be until late in the coming week that drier weather
moves back into the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Widespread rain across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin will
continue to lift northward through this afternoon, bringing light
rain to Northland terminals. Showers are likely this evening, but
will then lift northward to north of Minnesota by Saturday
morning. There will is a low risk of isolated thunder through
this evening, too low to warrant having thunder in the TAFs at
this time. The best chance of thunder will be for KHYR this
evening. May need to add thunder back into the TAFs will later
updates.

The conditions will primarily remain VFR through early this
evening, but there will be lowering ceilings and visibility
tonight into early Saturday. There will likely be widespread
LIFR/IFR conditions by dawn Saturday. Conditions will slowly
improve to IFR/MVFR by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  64  53  73 /  70  60  50  30
INL  54  68  52  72 /  60  60  30  30
BRD  53  71  55  77 /  40  60  50  30
HYR  55  73  55  75 /  70  60  70  60
ASX  47  67  53  73 /  70  60  60  60

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski



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