Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 201130 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
630 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

An upper trough stretched from northern North Dakota into northern
Minnesota early this morning. Weak forcing with this trough,
including some weak mid level WAA, and steep lapse rates were
leading to an increase in clouds over northern Minnesota and KDLH
was showing some isolated showers as well. A few light showers
will be possible over mainly far northern Minnesota today with
them ending by late afternoon or early evening. The upper trough
will slowly drop south through the day and some of the guidance
wants to develop spotty showers over other parts of the Northland.
We will just mention over the north at this time where the
agreement is best among the various models. Another mild day is
expected with highs in the seventies. It will again be cooler
near Lake Superior.

As the upper trough moves south of the area tonight, shortwave
ridging will move in with surface high pressure developing over
Minnesota.

The high will slide southeast on Saturday and much of the area
will be dry with highs again in the seventies. It will be a tougher
call on whether or not a lake breeze will occur as most of the
guidance is showing westerly flow developing tonight into Saturday
morning. The flow is weak so a lake breeze will be possible after
we heat up. We did not go as cool in lake side areas. Weak
surface convergence may lead to some light showers over the tip of
the Arrowhead, and we added a small pop there.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

The long term period will first be dominated by a strong upper
level ridge through the weekend...then the Pacific coast low/trof
will take over for most of next week.

The surface high will be moving over Wisconsin on Sunday and this
will signal the beginning of a change in weather conditions for the
Northland. Return flow on the backside of the retreating high
will begin to usher in more moisture and we will see dew points
begin to climb into the 50s. And as the upper low swings inland
and crosses the Rockies...a surface low that develops will also
help pull moisture and heat northward. By Sunday night a strong
low level jet develops ahead the the sfc low. In response...lift
will increase ahead of the system and stability will
decrease...leading to an increase in thunderstorms overnight. The
sfc low area will pass over the Northland Monday which will bring
widespread rain and storms across the region. While the sfc low
will be east of the Northland on Tuesday...the upper low will
continue to affect the Northland with a series of upper level
short waves that will help provide lift for more showers and
storms throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with
mainly clear skies. There may be some scattered cumulus clouds in
the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  45  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
INL  77  46  78  51 /  20  10   0   0
BRD  75  47  77  52 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  72  43  75  47 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  73  45  74  47 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC



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