Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240011
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
611 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WATCH FOR ICY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND WET ROADS/SIDEWALKS RE-FREEZE.

HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ TO ACCOMPANY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER-COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. THERE WAS
FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS
EVENING OVER NE NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH PROMPTED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE IN FGF FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MN. AT 800 PM...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS
REPORTED AT THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT.

AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE DUE
TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE FZDZ. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 600 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ TO ACCOMPANY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER- COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. AT 800
PM...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS REPORTED AT THE GRAND
FORKS AIRPORT. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE DUE TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE FZDZ. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE DRIZZLE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  26   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  18  18   4  19 /  50  60  20   0
BRD  19  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  28  29  10  23 /  80  80  80   0
ASX  30  31  15  25 /  90 100  90   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING







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