


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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537 FXUS63 KDLH 120537 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1237 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong storms remain possible tonight, although trends indicate a decreasing severe weather risk. - Areas of smoke tonight and Saturday with low chances of showers and storms Saturday night. - Temperatures warm Sunday through Tuesday with better rainfall chances returning for Monday night into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Low pressure was located north of International Falls this afternoon with a cold front trailing into north-central and western Minnesota and back into the eastern Dakotas and Nebraska. Showers and thunderstorms were located ahead of this front across northeastern Minnesota into central Minnesota. Most of this activity has been sub-severe with hail to the size of dimes and some minor wind damage reported. These storms have been heavy rainfall producers and are slow moving. This is leading to some flash flooding concerns with PWATs over 1.5 inches across Itasca, Cass, Crow Wing and adjacent Aitkin counties. Ahead of the cold front, CAPE is around 1000-2000 J/kg with effective shear under 20 knots. This will keep storms from getting too organized, but may produce some near severe hail and wind gusts to 50 mph along with the heavy rainfall threat. Models continue to struggle with this activity but it is expected to push east across northeastern Minnesota through this evening. Some additional development is possible overnight from northeastern Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin, but this activity is not expected to be severe. Behind the front is an area of intense near surface smoke. This will lead to low visibilities and very poor air quality tonight into tomorrow. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Saturday in the wake of the front. Any severe potential looks to remain to our east, with only a few isolated showers and storms possible across the Northland as the upper trough pivots through. PWATs will around an inch or less, so heavy rainfall is not expected to be a threat either. Highs will be in the 70s. Temperatures warm on Sunday with southerly flow ahead of a weak cold front. Models greatly differ in regards to this front with the GFS being the only one to really develop activity along the front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. If the GFS is correct, there could be a few strong to severe storms in the area, but thinking the drier forecast forecast is more likely at this point. Highs Sunday will be in the 80s. Zonal flow aloft will be in place for much of the coming week with surface low pressure moving through the Upper Midwest for Monday night into Tuesday night. This will bring another chance for showers and storms to the Northland. There is a low severe chance at this point with poor model agreement and shear looking displaced behind the front. Confidence is low in the remainder of the week with poor model agreement. Additional rainfall chances look likely at some point, but timing remains in question. Temperatures do look to cool down by midweek back to more seasonable levels. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Smoke across the Northland is causing reduced visibilities at all the Minnesota terminals. Smoke is expected to reach HYR in a few hours as the cold front pushes further east. Due to high humidity and close proximity to wetlands, HIB and INL visibilities have decreased further to LIFR/VLIFR and is expected to continue throughout the night. As smoke lingers, left MVFR conditions for the daytime. Convection behind the system may form tomorrow afternoon, with the highest chances near INL. HIB is the next highest, but not high enough to include in a PROB30. However, that may adjust. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move across western Lake Superior this evening with additional activity possible overnight. There is a low chance for a strong storm near the head of the lake late this afternoon and evening with gusts to 40 knots possible along with some small hail and heavy downpours. Any additional activity overnight is not expected to be strong or severe. Winds will be southwesterly Saturday at 5 to 15 knots and remain southwesterly Sunday at 15 to 20 knots. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...KML MARINE...BJH