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000
FXUS63 KDLH 260545
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CHANCES REMAIN HIGHEST FROM NEAR KINL TO KAIT AND POINTS EAST.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL OVER
ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD.

WE DID ADD SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND ON
MONDAY AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO GRAND MARAIS AND WE
INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE EAST THEN TURN SOUTH AS 850MB TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM. WE
EXPECT SNOWFALL DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT TO BE AN INCH OR LESS. WE
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS...THEN LEFT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW CAUSING A QUICK LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
OUT OF THE WEST. TOMORROW THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL END...BUT
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL END LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
STUCK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT SUN WAS
ABLE TO BREAK OUT IN A FEW SPOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WARMED
UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...CLIPPER WILL BRING A QUICK 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY EAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS ONE INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES
WITH GREAT LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 20S BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL END MONDAY MORNING IN
MINNESOTA...AND WILL BE PEAKING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THE TIMING OF THE THIS STORM COULD
CHANGE...BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
LIGHT BY THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME IN THE TWIN PORTS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MAY REACH PARTS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA UP TO
HIBBING...AND AS MID-LEVEL DRY OUT PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE FROM
SNOW TO DRIZZLE AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...EXCEPT FOR IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN EAST OF HIGHWAY
63 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPS ONLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

DID CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ARROWHEAD REGION THIS
EVENING BUT SINCE IT IS JUST ON THE EDGE OF CRITERIA DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. WHILE PARTS OF THE REGION COULD SEE
LOCALIZED TOTALS OF FOUR TO FIVE INCHES BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE
SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT IN A 12-HOUR PERIOD WILL JUST BARELY MEET THE
THREE-INCH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE LIGHT SNOW FORM THE CLIPPER WILL END BY 06Z TUESDAY ACROSS MOST
AREAS EXCEPT IN IRON WHERE IT WILL END BY 12Z TUESDAY.  AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER BENIGN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.   THE NEXT SHOT OF
SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND WILL COME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM.  ATTM...THE CLIPPER WILL BE SOUTHERN IOWA BY
00Z THURSDAY AND SOUTH OF CHICAGO BY 12Z THURSDAY.  THE SNOW WILL
BEGIN MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ARROWHEAD
WILL GET THE MOST SNOW AT 2-3 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST.  THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND AREA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE
LEADING UP TO MID-WEEK.

AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO TO THE MIDDLE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AREA RADARS SHOWED INCREASING ECHOES ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WHICH WAS MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE MOMENT. THE
AIRMASS IS SATURATING AND WE SHOULD SEE SNOW INCREASING ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE SNOW WILL THEN
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AS
WELL. VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LIFR FOR MOST TAF SITES WITH SOME VLIFR
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AND SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AS THIS OCCURS. MVFR OR HIGH IFR CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME SNOW OR DRIZZLE
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  35  21  32 /  90  70  20   0
INL  17  35  18  31 /  90  50  20  10
BRD  21  38  25  35 /  60  30   0   0
HYR   8  33  21  32 /  80  90  20  10
ASX   8  31  23  32 /  80  80  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MELDE