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000
FXUS63 KDLH 242109
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
409 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS. THE RAIN HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT TOMORROW...LOOK FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY WITH MANY SITES WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE HEAT
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...THUS COOLING TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IN WI AND A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS RESULTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN MN. AT THE SAME...ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE UPPER
RIDGING...INCREASED 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FUELING AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY...MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND AND NORTHWEST WI REMAINS IN A DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE >1"
PWATS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FOCUS TONIGHT WILL
BE ON OUR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RIDING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE. THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF INTEREST WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE REGION OF THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. THE 24.12Z HAS SEEMINGLY HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS AMONG 06-12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE ASSORTMENT OF CAM
OUTPUT TODAY HAS BEEN POOR AND NOTHING SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT CONVECTION PARTICULARLY WELL. THOSE DISAGREEMENTS CARRY
OVER INTO TONIGHT...BUT THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST DECENT THUNDER
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE BEST WINDOW APPEARS TO BE 09-15Z. THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
TRANSVERSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD
ISN`T NECESSARILY EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. THE PASSING UPPER LOW
SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTN WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
JET. NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH
THE EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL. FOR
COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL NICE
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TONIGHT...BUT THE DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. THE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MISS THE TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHWEST...KBRD IS
REALLY THE ONLY SITE THAT MIGHT GET GRAZED BY A FEW SHOWERS. THE
SECOND BATCH TONIGHT SHOULD FORM A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST...WHICH WOULD PUT IT ON A BETTER TRACK TOWARD THE TAF SITES
IN NORTHERN MN AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST WI. WE AREN`T TOTALLY
CLEAR ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING /OR LOCATION/...BUT THE BEST WINDOW
LOOKS LIKE 06-12Z. WE KEPT THE THUNDER OUT OF KINL WITH THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT IT`S CLOSE AND WE WILL LOOK TO UPDATE AT 21Z. WE
MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAF WHEN WE UPDATE. A LOT OF
THE FORECASTING MODELS WE LOOK AT ARE CALLING FOR MVFR/IFR
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS. THIS REALLY ISN`T A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TIME OF
YEAR TO FORECAST WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  74  59  82 /  30  50  40  20
INL  59  75  57  81 /  20  40  40  40
BRD  64  79  58  84 /  40  40  20  10
HYR  61  75  62  85 /  30  40  30  10
ASX  60  75  61  81 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPX
LONG TERM...MPX
AVIATION...MPX