Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 240555

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1255 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Rain showers over northwest Wisconsin this morning have dissipated
this afternoon, and while we are seeing some well developed cumulus
over the Arrowhead so far, am only seeing some weak echoes on radar
that are likely not producing more than virga or some sprinkles.
Will have to keep an eye on this trend as if it gets any more
widespread I will have to add pops into the forecast.  Otherwise,
the forecast for the next 24 hours with the surface ridge building
across the area keeping the weather generally quiet through Friday
mid afternoon.  South flow will set up over the area on Friday ahead
of our weekend storm system, which should bring increasing winds and
higher dew points into the area. Temperatures to warm  over today,
with most locations rising into the upper 70s to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Upper level ridging will move east Friday Night, allowing a
trough and low pressure system to move into the Northland through
the weekend. An MCS is expected to develop to the west Friday
Night, spreading into Minnesota later in the night. By 12Z
Saturday, the surface low is expected to be in the eastern
Dakotas, with showers and thunderstorms developing across the area
overnight Friday night. Surface low pressure will become dominant
over south central Canada on Saturday, as a cold front pushes
eastward across the area Saturday and Saturday Night. This looks
like our next chance of severe weather across the Northland,
although it will be dependent on the amount of surface heating
that is able to generate ahead of the cold front. It should be
plenty unstable, but the main question is whether there will be
enough surface heating at this point. Nonetheless, we should be
able to generate some storms with the potential for large hail and
damaging winds. The cold front will march eastward by Sunday
morning, putting our CWA into a dry slot by 12Z Sunday. The low
pressure system moving across south central Canada will really
wind up on Saturday Night and Sunday, with strong winds expected
for Sunday. Wrap around showers will also become common across the
area on Sunday, especially the northern half of the CWA. The
chance of wrap around showers will diminish Sunday Night and
Monday, with high pressure and upper level ridging then moving in
for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will range from the 80s on
Saturday, to the 70s and lower 80s on Sunday. It will be in the
60s to around 70 on Monday. Highs will then be in the 70s for the
remainder of the long term.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

High pressure will build eastward into the central Great Lakes
through the forecast period. Behind the high, an area of low
pressure will move into eastern North Dakota. This will result in
VFR conditions through much of the forecast.

The main concern overnight is radiation fog, which has already
developed due to light winds, clear skies and recent
precipitation. Mentioned fog at all terminals except for KDLH, as
winds should be too high for fog development. Per the latest
surface observations will see visibilities range anywhere from
MVFR to LIFR. Most confident in fog development at KHYR/KBRD/KHIB,
but only hinted at IFR visibility. Think that these sites are most
likely to see LIFR visibility, but have very low confidence on
when and how long.

Will see gusty winds develop tomorrow as the pressure gradient
tightens. Showers and thunderstorms will move in towards the end
of the latest TAF cycle. Unsure on how widespread thunderstorm
activity will be at this time, so left in as VCSH.


DLH  54  78  60  80 /   0  10  40  70
INL  52  81  64  82 /   0  20  60  70
BRD  55  79  66  85 /   0  30  40  70
HYR  51  79  64  85 /  10   0  30  70
ASX  53  81  59  85 /   0   0  30  70


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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