Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 070249
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THE STRONG TSTM NEAR BEULAH IN WEST CENTRAL ND IS DROPPING SE. ON
ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY IT SHOULD MISS THE FA. HOWEVER THERE IS
NICE DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTEND FROM BRANDON MB DOWN
TO THE KMOT AREA. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE PCPN THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE FA LATER TONIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE CELLS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THEY SHOULD STAY AS SHOWERS
WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NRN SASK WILL MOVE INTO NRN MANITOBA
TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTN. 500 MB COLD POOL WITH -16C AIR WILL
DROP INTO NRN VALLEY/NW MN BY 00Z TUES. ENOUGH SFC HEATING AND
COOL AIR ALOFT TO GENERATE MUCAPES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE.
DO EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY MORNING MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST (REMAINS OF ACTIVITY NOW IN SASK) BUT MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FORM MON AFTN SO A LIKELY POP IDEA MOST AREAS
SEEMS REASONABLE. COOLER AIR ALOFT COULD LEAD TO ISOLD HAILERS.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING SUN MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND SOME SUN WILL CREATE ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUES
NIGHT-WED WITH DRY WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...12 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BOTH SHOWING A LARGE 500 HPA TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG FORCING ALOFT
COMBINED WITH 850 HPA JET AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS AND MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT
WAY TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIME AND LOCATION. THE THURSDAY BEFORE AND
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AFTER THE CONVECTIVE EVENT LOOK MOSTLY DRY WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. DAY TO DAY
TEMPERATURE SWINGS LIKELY TO BE MINIMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

WITH THE CUMULUS FADING SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. OTHERWISE THE
MID CLOUDS TO THE WEST AND NW SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LAST INTO MON MORNING. NOT SURE HOW
MUCH OR IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER BUT DID MENTION
VCSH AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KFAR. IF SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AND PROVIDE SOME HEATING THERE SHOULD BE MORE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WILL
JUST MENTION SOME AFTERNOON VCTS AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...GODON





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