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000
FXUS63 KFGF 270531
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BE OVER EASTERN ND...KEEPING WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS HAS ALSO
RESULTED IN SOME NEAR SFC SATURATION AND A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED
VSBYS COMING DOWN IN MIST. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR ALL OF
EASTERN ND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLEARING LINE RIGHT OVER RED RIVER
VALLEY...FROM INTL BORDER TO ABOUT HILLSBORO BEFORE GOING INTO W
CNTRL MN...HAS HALTED AND IT APPEARS OVC WILL STAY ALL NIGHT FOR
NW MN AND MOST OF W CNTRL MN. THE COLDEST TEMPS ARE IN FAR EASTERN
ND WHERE THE AREA IS JUST BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE AND HAD A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE THE MID CLOUD DECK HAD NOT YET ARRIVED...AND WITH
SOME REMAINING SNOW THE AREA COOLED DOWN TO AROUND 20. COUNTIES
ALONG INTL BORDER MAY SEE UPPER TEEMS HOWEVER REMAINDER OF AREA
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN LOW TO MID 20S WITH OVC EAST AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY WEST. MADE MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS NORTH AND
PROLONGED 100S FOR SKY GRIDS...OTHER THAN THAT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

CURRENT LOW CLOUD DECK IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WITH EASTERN ND GRADUALLY SEEING INCREASED MID CLOUD.
FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE SKY AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS. WILL
ADJUST FCST FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...IF
NEEDED...TIL 00Z DATA COMES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN WED/WED NIGHT. LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT EVENT GIVEN RECENT MODEL
PERFORMANCE. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUD BAND HAS SHIFTED
ALL THE WAY DOWN THRU KFAR AND KBWP. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR
MOST OF THE FA AFTER LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS. FAR SW FA
IS THE ONLY SPOT YET TO SEE THE COOLING. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION TAKING OVER AGAIN.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEAR HOLES...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY FOG FORMATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE
SNOW COVER OVER EASTERN ND OTHER THAN POSSIBLY THE KDVL REGION.
THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION KEEPING ANY CLEARING MINIMAL.
ALSO WITH SUCH MINIMAL SNOW COVER DO NOT THINK THERE WAS MUCH
MELTING TO CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY.
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR WEST/SW AND NOT
EXPAND THE MENTION FOR NOW. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT. WILL SEE SFC WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON TUE AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. STRAIGHT SOUTH WINDS NOT GREAT FOR
WARMING SO BEST WARMING SHOULD BE IN AREAS THAT SEE SUN. ANY
THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TUE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR WED AND SINK IT SOUTH WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY EXPECT MAYBE
AN INCH OR SO AT MOST WITH THIS...BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE OR TOWARD EVEN LOWER AMOUNTS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF THE COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FAR AND DVL COULD SEE SOME BR OR FG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE
WINDS ARE CALM. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING AS SE FLOW
PICKS UP. FOR NORTHWEST AND W CNTRL MN...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
INHIBIT VSBYS FROM FALLING TOO DRASTICALLY BUT CIGS HAVE DROPPED
INTO IFR RANGE AND 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT THIS. THE HRRR DOES KEEP
THE IFR CONDS IN FOR MUCH OF MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...HOWEVER
WITH INCREASING SE FLOW THINK WE WILL SEE IMPROVED CONDS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER