Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181743
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1243 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Virtually no changes to the forecast...high cirrus drifting slowly
across the western FA into the valley early this afternoon. Winds
and temps on track with the forecast as SE zones remain a touch
cooler with mixing...winds still light.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

High pressure is currently over eastern Minnesota...allowing winds over
the Bemidji to Park Rapids areas to decouple and become calm.
Temperatures in a small area south of Bemidji have fallen into
mid 30s. West of the forested areas...light southerly flow is
keeping temps well into the 40s with some sites still around 50
F. The primary forecast challenge will be overnight temps
throughout the short term as the dry airmass stays in place.

Today...A cool start to the day in eastern zones will likely
keep eastern and southeastern zones from making the 70s once again
today...while areas adjacent to and west of the 70s will enjoy
full solar and daytime highs in the mid 70s.

For fire weather concerns...a bit higher dew points today however
RH values will continue to be in the mid 20s...with the driest
air north of Devils Lake. Winds will generally be 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph in the mid afternoon west of the
valley...so conds could approach near critical fire wx conds if
wind speeds are prolonged...but winds expected to be too light
for red flag conditions.

Tonight...Stronger southerly overnight winds will bring a
rather warm night to the area...with model guidance indicating
lows in the upper 40s east to around 50 across eastern ND.

Tomorrow...Continued moisture flux into the region will bring a
bit more humidity to the valley...with increased southerly
winds bringing daytime highs into the mid 70s for the majority of
the area. While the increased winds will make the Valley City
area breezy during the mid afternoon...RH values climbing into
the 30s will keep fire wx conds in check.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Thu night through Saturday...dry weather and warming trend
continues with daytime highs nearing the 80 mark on Saturday.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s as south to southeast winds
increase...with dew points increasing throughout the period.
Despite breezy conds Sat aftn...RH values will rise into the 40s
as the H850 moisture flux continues with an open Gulf of Mexico.

For Saturday through Tuesday...The long term pattern is still
showing good day to day continuity in the models. Starting off with
ridging over the Central Plains and the continued dry and warm
pattern. High temperatures over the weekend could be pushing 80 or
even higher. Then as the ridge starts to push off to the east on
Sunday the southwest flow regime sets up. This brings increasing
moisture northward and an increasing threat for thunderstorms.
Basically looking at the entire Sunday afternoon through Tuesday
time frame with precipitation chances. Along this route, more clouds
and rain will result in cooler temperatures into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period with only patches of
high clouds. Winds will generally be southerly through the period...
becoming a bit gusty Red River Valley westward later Thur morning.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Godon/Speicher
AVIATION...Makowski



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