Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 151246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
646 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MOST OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
GFK AREA...BUT WITH RECENT WET CONDITIONS AND COLD TEMPS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE SLICK. IN ADDITION...MORE RETURNS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY
GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MAIN HEADACHE IS FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HOW LONG IT WILL LAST TODAY.

THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE SOUTHERN CUT OFF LOW
MOVING THROUGH KANSAS ON ITS WAY TO IOWA. THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA AND MOST SITES HAVE SEEN A SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION. A FEW SPOTS IN
THE EASTERN TIER ARE HANGING ABOVE FREEZING BUT THE REST HAVE
FALLEN BELOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ABUNDANT EVEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY LAYER
ALOFT WHERE TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE GROWTH...SO MOST OF
OUR PRECIP WILL BE SUPERCOOLED WATER. THE RAP AND NAM BOTH HAVE
THE LOW LEVEL OMEGA IN THAT SATURATED LAYER CONTINUING TO SHOW
SOME RISING MOTION. WILL EXTEND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL
15Z AND EXTEND IT EAST AS TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING AND VIS HAVE
BEEN RISING WHERE OUR DENSE FOG HEADLINE WAS OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST
TODAY...BUT KEPT SOME LOW POPS TO BLEND IN AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
BY. TONIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN INTO
NORTHEASTERN MN AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. SAT LOOP SHOWS FAIRLY CONSISTENT CLOUDS WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST UNTIL ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG
THE SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA BORDER. TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
LOT OF RH AT LOW LEVELS SO THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGER
THAN EXPECTED. BUMPED UP CLOUDS AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES
ACCORDINGLY FOR TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA...BUT THE AXIS WILL STILL BE WEST OF MOST OF OUR COUNITES SO
KEPT CLOUDS HIGHER A BIT LONGER ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY SOCKED IN.
EVEN WITH A BIT OF SUN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE TEMPS IN
THE TEENS FOR TUESDAY AND WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IT WILL FEEL
RATHER RAW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
COLD EVEN AS CLOUDS START TO DECREASE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF
 CANADA REMAINS THROUGH DAY 5 THEN RETROGRADES/RE-ESTABLISH
FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

GFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
THE GFS WANT TO DEVELOP A STRONGER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRI AND SAT WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE
ECMWF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

LITTLE OR NO PRECIP THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPS ON THU AND FRI. HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SAT
AND SUN MOST PLACES COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES WITH SOME MVFR AT KDVL.
KBJI AND KFAR CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
WITH MIST AND FREEZING RAIN...BUT GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE.
VIS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE TO MVFR
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS. NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE
SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS FOR TODAY AND
THEN DECREASE A BIT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ016-
     027-029-030-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.