Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 110819

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
319 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Impacts confined to winds as a quiet weather pattern continues
today. The dry SFC high pressure which brought the freezing
temperatures to the area yesterday morning has shifted to the
east over the northern Great Lakes this morning. To our west broad
lee side SFC troughing will develop under 500mb southwest flow
aloft. The pressure gradient between these SFC features will
increase over the FA which will bring breezy south to southeast
winds today, 15 to 25 mph with gust to 35mph, highest in the
northern valley. These winds are not as favorable for warming as
yesterday so going a touch cooler across the area for highs today,
around 60. These south winds will steadily advect higher moisture
to the region with models indicating the potential to bring the
stratus deck of clouds currently in Iowa north into the eastern
zones this evening and into the overnight. As a result
temperatures overnight will be 5 or so degrees warmer under the
clouds than those to the west, mid 40s verses around 40 in E ND

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Dry weather will continue for the remainder of the work week.
Near normal temperatures today and Friday with warmer temperatures
on Wednesday night into Thursday.

The weekend will bring cooler weather and the next chance for
precipitation. The southwesterly flow aloft from the work week will
transition to an upper trough. Model guidance has come into
better agreement over the last few runs so confidence in this
forecast is increasing. This system will bring some colder air in
with it giving the chance of rain snow mix Saturday night.

Monday through Wednesday ridging aloft will lead a return to dry
weather and slightly above average temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

VFR. Winds picking up in the DVL area tonight and should decrease
near morning, becoming gusty (SW) again tomorrow aftn. Soundings
showing a decent aftn inversion tomorrow, and with recent harvest
and gusty winds west of valley...could see some hazy skies at
lower altitudes.




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