National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 071002
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

MODELS WERE SIMILAR THE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AT 84 HOURS. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...THE NAM WAS THE SLOW SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECMWF WAS FAST AND THE GFS A COMPROMISE. WILL PREFER THE FASTER
ECMWF.

EAST-WEST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND WERE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST. MODELS APPEAR TO
BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH RH FIELDS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TODAY.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS
IA/MN ON SUN AND SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. A THIRD SHORT WAVE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MON NIGHT. ALL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL KEEP WIND CHILL WARNING GOING THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX NEAR HUDSON BAY. 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT.  ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUE AFTN-WED...THEN A BIT
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THU NIGHT-FRI.  EACH ONE WILL
GIVE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

A PATCH OF VFR/MVFR SC HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN DVL BASIN
AND COULD REACH DVL TAF SITE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SE SO LEFT OUT OF
NEIGHBORING TAF SITES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-024-
     032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office