Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Clouds showing a few breaks in SE ND and in the northern valley.
CU redeveloping in the north as convective temps in the low 40s
are being reached. Models continue to show clearing southwest to
northeast...will continue to monitor but have delayed scattering


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Cloud trends and temperatures main issues for the period. Region
will be in broad mid level cyclonic flow with steady cold
advection during the day. Cloud shield continues to sag southward
now covering all but the far se and this too will likely fill in
the next few hours. GFS/NAM RH fields hold clouds tough during the
day with some drying across the far south mid afternoon. As a
result held clouds in longer during the day. With clouds and cold
advection temperature recover will be limited. Most areas will
hold in the 40s.

Temperatures tonight will hinge largely on cloud trends. Low
confidence on any significant clearing across the NE half of the
fa. With relatively cold column in place most if not all the area
will see temperatures below freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Little overall chance in thermal profiles for Thursday so another
sub average temperature day across the region. Warmest
temperatures will be across the far SW where more solar

Although mid level cyclonic flow shifts east models not as quick
in bringing return flow to western parts of the region Thursday
night and current minimum temperatures may be optimistic but again
will hinge on cloud cover.

Flow becomes more zonal Friday with weak shortwave tracking east
along international border during the day and will maintain
current pops. Temperatures will be a bit warmer with warm
advection spreading across the fa. Milder minimums also expected
Friday night with most everyone above freezing.

Low amplitude long wave ridge over the Rockies and long wave trough
over eastern North America amplifies a bit through the period and
shifts east. By the end of the period the long wave ridge is over
the Dakotas and trough was over the east coast.

Upper air pattern was progressive through the period and run to run
continuity was not very good. The ECMWF was faster than the GFS but
by the end of the period the GFS was the faster solution. The ECMWF
has been trending faster while the GFS has been trending slower.
Will blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures for Sat and Sun. Mon was
decreased one to three degrees and Tue was increased one to four
degrees from yesterdays forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Stratus deck ranging from 2800-3500ft ceilings starting to show
holes in SE ND and in the north. Some CU redeveloping in the north
at 3500ft. Any CIGS in the evening and overnight are expected to
be VFR.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hoppes/Voelker
AVIATION...JK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.