Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271957
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL AND THE
DETAILS ARE TOUGH TO TIME WITH ANY CONVECTIVE EVENT...BUT THE HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE AS USUAL.

FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 4 PM IN NORTHEAST ND THEN SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBINATION...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
FA UNTIL 10 PM. MOST STORMS SHOULD ROTATE FAIRLY EASILY AND IF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED...THEN THE
TORNADIC THREAT WILL INCREASE. STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
AREAS TOWARDS 6Z AS THEY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH SUNSET.

ON SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL WARM IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

FOR MON...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND
PERHAPS UPPER 80S.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE WEST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIR
IN PLACE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED SHOWERS.

RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. PATTERN RETROGRADES A BIT AND DE AMPLIFIES A BIT BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WAS STILL SPLIT WITH STREAMS MERGING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, THE GFS WAS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, THE ECMWF WAS
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF WAS BRINGING AN UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN
CANADA AFTER WED. CURRENT TREND SHOWS THE ECMWF BACKING OFF MOVING
TROUGH INTO CANADA. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREES FOR WED...DECREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR THU...LITTLE CHANGE FRI AND FOUR OR FIVE DEGREES
HIGHER FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST WAS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO SOUTHERN MAN. A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AND A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WAS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN ZONES. CIGS WERE
MOSTLY ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FT. SOME CUMULUS WAS AROUND THE BJI
AREA...WOULD EXPECT CIGS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THOUSAND FT. EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONCURRENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH STORMS. SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK


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