Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
945 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Issued at 945 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Seeing quite a bit of fog across the FA yet, so went ahead and
continued its mention through late morning for areas that still
have it. Wind speeds are already increasing, so also bumped them
up some more. There is currently a clear hole over south central
ND into portions of northeast SD. Will have to see what happens
there through the rest of the morning, but models are indicating
this filling back up to some regard. As for severe potential, it
depends on clearing and getting some heating somewhere. However,
forward speeds on any potential storms could be 40 to 50 mph. So
storms could easily fire well south of this FA and quickly ride up
into the FA. Lots of uncertainty yet, so will see what the new
model solutions have in store. For now will just delay the onset
of higher pcpn chances until mid to late afternoon. There may not
be much pcpn at all the rest of the morning, then just isolated
patches until mid to late afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Water vapor loop indicated an upper trough over WY and CO. Upper
level low was over southwest WY with short waves moving around the
system. One short wave over northeast CO. However an upper jet was
digging on the west side of CO trough and will form another trough
over the desert southwest. CO low shear off from the desert
southwest low on Sun.

CO trough forecast to move across the FA Sat night. 150+m height
falls forecast with upper low. Upper low forecast to open up once
low moves past the FA. Upper level jets remain on the east and west
sides of the trough for most of the period. Dry slot will move into
the area Sat night. However upper jet will dig on the west side of
the trough Sun afternoon through Mon. Wrap around precip will move
across the area Sun and Sun evening.

Precipitable water was around an inch and three quarters in the
northern zones and shift north this morning. Precipitable water
decreases aob one inch in the east zones this morning. Then rises
back over an inch and half this afternoon. MUcapes rise to 500 to
1000 j/kg this afternoon with more moisture moving in.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The only real concern throughout the long term will be the return of
precipitation chances late in the work week and lingering into the

The period begins with upper level ridging building into the western
third of the CONUS as a deep upper low continues to spin near the
upper Great Lakes. As the low digs south and east, the ridge axis
will gradually shift eastward bringing quiet and dry conditions to
the region through Thursday. The Canadian model does spit out some
QPF near the international border early Thursday while other
synoptic models remain dry. However, will continue with a dry
forecast for this time frame with the ridge axis and surface high
parked right over the area. Model soundings show a dry column in
place with plenty of sunshine for both Tuesday and Wednesday before
moisture returns on Thursday with breezy southeasterly winds.

As the ridge breaks down and upper level southwest flow returns,
precipitation chances will also return for Friday and Saturday with
several embedded waves progged to pass through the area.

No real change in thermal profiles expected throughout the period as
slightly above normal temperatures continue...highs upper 60s to low
70s and lows upper 50s to low 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

IFR conditions were over much of the forecast area except the
northeast zones. The northeast zones had mvfr conditions. A clear
sky was over the far southwest zones. Expect IFR conditions for the
morning. Cigs will lift a bit today northeast half this morning and
become MVFR this afternoon. VFR cigs are forecast to spread north to
about the southwest half of the area by late this afternoon. VFR
conditions will shift east tonight and early Sun morning. Followed
by MVFR/IFR conditions with wrap around precip on SUN.




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