Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 120533

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1133 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Issued at 912 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Flurries, clouds and winds diminishing as expected this evening
with the latest round of arctic air pushing over the FA. Wind
chills falling into criteria for the advisory across the north
also as expected. Lows tonight in the ten to twenty below range.

UPDATE Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Expanded the blowing snow and flurries in the forecast for the
remainder of the afternoon and into the evening as cold air
advection has enhanced lift creating a few snow showers and
streamers evident on satellite for the valley and NW MN.
Visibilities vary widely and have changed rapidly as the snow
combined with blowing snow has reduced visibilities down to a mile
at times.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 353 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Water vapor loop indicated a broad upper level trough across
southern Canada with a short wave trough over the MAN/Ontario
border. Cold air will move south following short wave.
Satellite indicating some cloud streets over the far eastern
zones and should dissipate with sunset. Patches of clouds
were moving into eastern ND. Some Flurries/light snow showers
were reducing visibilities at times. The reduced visibilities
should also settle down after sunset. Surface high pressure
will move over eastern ND by morning and will make for
another cold morning.

Issued a wind chill advisory for tonight and Mon morning for much
of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Another surge of colder air will have arrived Mon but as this part
of the forecast commences some WAA will be in place as sfc flow
switches to southerly. Weak shortwave will pivot around south of the
area possibly brushing our southeast with an inconsequential dose of
snow. Non-diurnal temp scheme Mon night will translate to a milder
Tue featuring highs in the 20s. Westerly sfc flow will contribute to
substantial warming on Wed; potential exists to drive temps toward
40 degrees, as it stands now most areas are progged to at least
climb above freezing. Some questions remain on the chances for
impactful icing later Wed and eve. For now we have agreed to keep
any pcpn as SN or at most RA/SN before transitioning to all snow
later as the next supply of arctic arrives. This will be
attributable to a quasi backdoor cold frontal structure descending
from Canada. Increasing NW wind could produce some brief vsby
impacts Wed night or early Thu. Colder air with below average
temperatures Thu will be followed by some warming toward average
Fri into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

VFR/SKC as skies clearing out with high pressure approaching for
the overnight into Monday. High clouds possible at FAR by morning.
Winds light for the period.


ND...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for NDZ038-039.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST Monday for NDZ006>008-

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for MNZ003-023-024-027-

     Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST Monday for MNZ001-002-



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