Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271200
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

FCST IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO CHANGES. HAVE LOW POPS IN NW FCST AREA
AND RADAR SHOWS A FEW ECHOES ALONG CANADIAN BORDER NR ROLLA MOVING
SOUTHEAST. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN GOOD
CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING MAIN TSTM DEVELOPMENT STILL IN THE 20Z TIME
FRAME IN NW FCST AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL RRV TOWARD
23Z/00Z.  SEVERE PARAMETERS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY. VARIOUS SHORT RANGE
SPC/NSSL/NCAR WRF MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY AFTN IN
THE LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE AREA INCREASING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE RRV LATE AFTERNOON...THEN INTO SRN VALLEY AND WCNTRL MN EARLY
THIS EVENING. STRONG SHORT WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM MOVING SOUTHEAST
THRU CNTRL SASK AND THIS SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO NW MN THIS
EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF IT AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS WARM
INTO THE LOW-MID 80S AND DEW PTS CLIMB A BIT HIGHER INTO LOWER-MID
60S. NAM A BIT TOO AGRESSIVE WITH DEW PTS AND THUS ITS HIGHER
(4000 J/KG) CAPE IN THE RRV LATE TODAY. BUT EVEN NCAR ESEMBLE WRF
SHOW MEAN SURFACE BASED CAPES NR 3000 J/KG HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS
REGION AT 00Z. HODOGRAPH SHOWS SUFFICIENT TURNING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT AND WITH SFC LOW PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NRN VALLEY
SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL OCCUR IN THE NRN RRV
LATE THIS AFTN. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. LIKELY ANY SEVERE THREAT OVER BY 03-04Z.
DRIER BUT STILL WARM AIRMASS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY...THOUGH WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN WILL KEEP ISOLD TSTM
MENTION SUN AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. KEPT SOME LOW POPS
MON AFTN IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT AND SFC
HEATING FOR A RISK OF A STORM. VERY WARM ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS MID
TO UPPER 80S IN ERN ND/RRV.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME AS A SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF TSTMS TODAY. USING VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATED TEMPO GROUP 3-4 HOUR PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHC FOR STORMS
AT THE GIVEN TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT AN INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND TODAY AHD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTS ABV 20
KTS...TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING. VFR CLOUD
BASES FCST BUT BRIEF MVFR CIG AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORM.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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