Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 020801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN WEAK NW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WAS WEAK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VIS LOOP
SHOWED CU OVER THE INLAND WEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AREA IN
THE E HALF.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO UPPER MI WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WEST
AND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.

MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
REMAINING WELL TO THE SE OVER THE ERN LAKES. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
AGAIN ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
BREEZE REACHING THE FARTHEST INLAND. SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MI 60S INLAND WEST WITH 50S NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH CU DEVELPMENT SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

TUESDAY...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN TO
UPPER MICHIGAN IN OVER A WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SSE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...INITIATING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY INCREASING MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S
INLAND. ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25MPH FOR THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
AFTER A WEEK OF DRYING...FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR
TUESDAY. FIRE WX INDICES FOR ALL FUELS...ESPECIALLY GRASSY
FUELS...HAVE BEEN BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN INCLUDE THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SE HALF IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SLOW WHILE
CROSSING THE REGION...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INLAND AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. BLUSTERY NNW WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS...TEMPS IN THE 40S...WILL PRODUCE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR
EARLY MAY. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR MAY FAIL TO
REACH 40F.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
QUICKER WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...HAVE TRENDED WARMER
WITH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOKS TO TOP OUT WELL IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST. WINDS LOOK RATHER LIGHT...SO FIRE WX CONCERNS
WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMING AT KIWD FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. WL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR FOG TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. WSW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...JLB



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