Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 140004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
804 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a shortwave over the northern plains
this morning which moves into the upper Great Lakes tonight and Mon.
Nam shows some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence along with deeper
moisture on Mon moving into the area. With isolated showers popping
up this afternoon along lake breeze boundaries, will continue the
slight chance pops until this evening until the peak heating ends.
Did back off on pops tonight and push them back in the west until
late tonight and keep it slight chance only. Looks like tomorrow
with dynamics and lake breezes again that the pops would be confined
to mainly inland areas and also will be highest in the south.
Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

Overall, temperatures look to remain seasonable through next weekend
with the best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms still
looking to be later this week, primarily the Wednesday/Thursday time
frame. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the track and
timing of this system, which will determine the overall impacts from
this system as both the precipitation and wind forecasts will rely
in the track of the system.

Monday night we could see a few lingering showers across the south
central and east as a shortwave continues to exit the region;
however, expect things to begin to dry out during the overnight
hours as height rises and surface high pressure overspread the
region. During the day on Tuesday, expect dry conditions to prevail
as high pressure pivots over the area, while to our southwest a low
pressure system will begin to develop in the lee of the Rockies.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, as the above mentioned area of low
pressure, and its associated upper-level energy, lift northeast
towards the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions, warm
and moist air will begin to lift towards the region. As mentioned
above, there remains considerable disagreement among the models with
the track and/or speed of this system Wednesday through Thursday, as
the strength and orientation of the upper-level wave remains rather
variable. The Canadian/NAM are the faster and furthest north of the
medium range models, with the GFS being a bit slower and the ECMWF
being the furthest south with the low pressure system. Given the
majority of the medium range models have a stronger and more
meridional orientation to the upper-level wave, tending to lean
towards the more northern track, which would favor better chances
for widespread showers and thunderstorms through a good portion of
the day on Wednesday through Thursday. If you have outdoor
activities planned for the Wednesday/Thursday time frame, this time
period should be monitored closely as updates/changes will likely be
warranted when the details become clearer.

Friday through next weekend, the pattern will remain quasi-unsettled
as additional shortwave activity traverses the region. We`re not
looking at a washout with widespread chances for precipitation, but
there will at least be a daily chance for showers during the
afternoon hours, primarily across the central and east.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 803 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Isolated
showers at KIWD this evening are not expected to affect cig/vsby.
Some showers may also spread from west to east Monday with MVFR cigs
at KIWD by mid afternoon. Enough dry low level air will linger
farther east so that VFR conditions persist.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

Winds will remain at 20 knots through much of next week. The
strongest winds of 15 to 25 knots will occur late Wednesday into
Wednesday Night ahead of a low pressure system moving in from the
Northern Plains.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Ritzman
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