Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 290529
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OUR CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS...HAS ALLOWED ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR W SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR
THINGS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER E MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STILL...IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...EVEN PRECIP WILL BE AT A MINIMUM
TONIGHT. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF ML CAPES NEARING 500-1K J/KG
TRANSITIONING OVER THE W HALF PRIOR TO 06Z...BEFORE EXITING FAR E
UPPER MI BY 15Z. DIMINISHED THE TS THREAT IN THE GRIDS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A THIN BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT/S CURRENTLY SET UP OVER THE W THIRD OF MN...STRENGTHENING FROM THE
LOW ALONG THE S SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-
500MB LOW WILL PUSH TO THE CENTRAL MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER BY
15Z...AS THE SFC FRONT EXITS E. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY FILL
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SO...THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S W...AND IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90F E. IT WILL
BE WINDY TOO...WITH THE LLJ SET UP PRODUCING DAYTIME GUSTS OF 20-
30KTS /STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA/. WILL NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION TO HAVE RH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT 35-40 PERCENT W AND
CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

IMPACTS...MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS WED NIGHT
AND THU.

THE OVERALL PATTERN AFFECTING THE AREA WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
REGIONALLY THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z THU WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY 00Z FRI AND MEANDER
OVER THE BAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL THEN BEHIND THE CYCLE
BACK TO THE W...POSSIBLY BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THEREFOR WINDS...WILL BE TIGHTEST OVER
THE AREA WED NIGHT...AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO SAT. WINDS GUSTS
AT 00Z THU WILL RANGE FROM 30-35MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW TO 10-20MPH
N/NE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT THAT MAY
LOCALLY ENHANCE WINDS OVER/NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE STRONGEST AT 00Z THU AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
THAT. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH OR TWO MOVES THROUGH ON
THU...BUT WILL ONLY PROVIDE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

A SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT...WHICH
JUSTIFIES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRI INTO SAT LOOKS DRY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/28 GFS DOES BRING A PRECIP
PRODUCING SHORTWAVE INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT. LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS GFS RUN WAS DRY AND OTHER MODELS ARE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES THU THROUGH SAT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S AND LOW IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

MODELS SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND WIDESPREAD QPF SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. COOLER
TEMPS COME IN WITH THAT UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR A CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER THIS EVENING RIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT CROSSING W TO E OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST
TO THE WEST OF KIWD AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. LLWS IS
A CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC CONTINUE AROUND 35KTS. EXPECT THE GUSTY
WINDS TO MIX BETTER DURING THE DAY...LIMITING THE NEED FOR LLWS.
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CLEARING AND MIXING DIRECTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH SOME SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS ENCROACHING BY MID AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING...THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN
HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LO PRES MOVING TOWARD
HUDSON BAY WILL SUPPORT WSW GALES UP TO 35 KTS THRU THE DAY ON WED
OVER THE W HALF OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE LAKE GEOGRAPHY TYPICALLY
ENHANCES THIS FLOW. MAINTAINED GOING GALE WATCH FOR THIS AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON WED EVENING... WINDS
UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLOWLY
SLACKENS. LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20 KTS WILL THEN BE THE RULE ON FRI
THRU THE WEEKEND AS A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER
DOMINATES THAT PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ264.

  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ245>247.

  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LSZ243-244.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07/SRF
MARINE...KC


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