Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 182341
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY THE SCT-CLEAR SKY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
TO THE W. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE...WITH A TRACE OR LESS
STICKING TO THE GROUND /GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/.

HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
WILL BE COOL TEMPS...WHICH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER /EXITING LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS E AND INVADING HIGH CLOUDS W/...COULD FALL INTO THE
LOW 20S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PW VALUES OF 40-50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.
AT THAT POINT THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SW FOR THE W FOURTH OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4C...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE SE. THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONGER WAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR
FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z MON WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH POISED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ON SUN NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ON MON.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
THE ERN CWA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MONDAY IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z WED THAT AFFECTS THE AREA WHICH GETS FLATTENED A BIT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE TOP
OF IT ON THU. THIS PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z FRI AND 12Z SAT. THIS WILL STILL MEAN A DRY FORECAST
THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SOME MVFR CLINGS STILL LINGERING AROUND THE UPPER PENINSULA EARLY
THIS EVENING HOWEVER ALL THREE TAF SITES CURRENTLY VFR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. KSAW MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE
MVFR CIGS RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS STILL NORTHERLY AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS JUST TO THE EAST OF THAT
SITE...BUT WINDS SHOULD RELAX AND SHIFT A BIT MORE NNW BY 02Z WHICH
WILL END ANY POTENTIAL RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS THERE. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE THROUGH THE FORECAST. NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE FORECAST AND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. KCMX WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING PRECIP BUT PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO
DRIER AIR HANGING AROUND ON BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF





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