Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 271938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LINGERING ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA


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