Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 251655
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1155 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND -10 TO -20F AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL FALL TO
NEAR CRITICAL VALUES ONCE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK. HOWEVER THIS
CONTINUES TO BE MORE ATTRIBUTED TO THE COLD AIR THAN DANGEROUS WINDS.
WITH CRITERIA OF 10MPH OR GREATER WINDS...AND THE BUILDING RIDGE
RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WIND TO AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. WILL KEEP SPS
GOING EARLY THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO
-15 TO -25F.

STILL HAVE A FEW POCKETS OF OPEN WATER TO CONTEND WITH ON LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO THAT EVEN WITH UPSTREAM INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND DEW
POINTS OF -17C AT CKC...A FEW STREAMERS OF LES CONTINUE. INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM AROUND 5KFT AROUND 06Z THIS
MORNING TO AROUND 3KFT AFTER DAYBREAK...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WE ARE GETTING BACK INTO THE VERY
COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING BETWEEN -21 AND -26C. WITH THE
MOISTURE STUCK BELOW 3KFT...AND THE DGZ NOWHERE IN SIGHT...THE
SMALL/SIGNIFICANT VIS REDUCING SNOWFLAKES WILL CONTINUE. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...LITTLE ICE MOVEMENT IS
FIGURED...AND NEW ICE MAY FORM. OVER THE E THOUGH THE PERSISTENT NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ANY THIN ICE AROUND THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.

FLAT DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO /POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA/.

LOOK FOR THE NEAR SFC WINDS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY /03-09Z THURSDAY/. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FOCUS OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR IRONWOOD...AND PUSH THE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY MORE TOWARD MARQUETTE. AFTER
09Z THURSDAY WINDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT A BIT MORE OUT OF THE
NW...SHIFTING ANY BANDS INTO MAINLY THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY ONCE
AGAIN.

WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DEALING WITH VERY COLD AIR TONIGHT...WITH THE
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS FALLING TO -25F AS THE ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. BY 12Z THURSDAY THE
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN...E MT...AND
ND. WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY CALM. HOWEVER...EVEN A 3-5KT WIND WILL BE
ABLE TO DROP WIND CHILL VALUES TO -25 TO -35 /LOWEST INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/. THIS WILL BE A TRICKIER FCST HEADLINE WISE...AS IN THE
PAST WEEK OR SO WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AREAS THAT
HAVE GONE INTO THE -35 RANGE /WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA/ WHEN WE
HAVE LITTLE TO NO WIND. AN SPS WOULD ALSO COVER THE HAZARD. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD IN THE HWO...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
DECIDE ON THE APPROPRIATE HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT /BASICALLY AFTER 02Z
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING/.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE OVERALL PATTERN INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED
BY NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE NRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLOW MODERATING TREND AS THE COLDEST AIR
RETREATS INTO NE CANADA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE SW CONUS RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW TOWARD THE WRN
GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO
WRLY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE
MID MS VALLEY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -25C...LES WILL CONTINUE OFF
OF ANY GAPS IN THE ICE COVER...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
MARQUETTE AND NEAR IRONWOOD. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL...LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR HIGHS AND AGAIN DROP INTO THE -10 TO -20 RANGE INLAND THU
NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM -2 TO -10 CLOSER TO THE LAKE. EVEN WITH
MINIMAL WINDS NEAR 5 MPH WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE -18 TO
-28 RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

FRI INTO SAT...WINDS BACKING TO SW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING LES OFFSHORE. WEAK WAA AND LATE
FEBRUARY SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS FRI
AND TO NEAR 20 SATURDAY.

SUN...THE MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WILL MAINLY RESULT IN
VEERING WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LES POTENTIAL AS THE MORE
ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...ONLY REACHING THE SRN LAKES.

MON-TUE...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING ALONG WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS INTO THE MID 20S. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH A LARGE SHIELD
OF PCPN MAY EMERGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE SRN LAKES.
ALTHOUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY BE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IF MODELS TREND
TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM HOLD UP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT SAW FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND FOR
CMX FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. JUST ENOUGH OPEN WATER IS KEEPING IWD
TEMPORARILY IFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THEY WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR FOR THE PERIOD EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FOR
MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP
ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...BUILDING A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL BE THE
TREND TODAY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
AND SHIFTING ICE COVER PREVENTING LARGE AREAS OF OPEN WATER...AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE WAVES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF



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