Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 291847
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH...A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THE RIDGE IS POISED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON TUE.

GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUNG
ONTO DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY GO ANYWHERE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW FALL WHICH WAS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. DID HANG ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR TUE AS SATELLITE SHOWS A LOT OF
CLOUDS TO STILL GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN TO 2C BEFORE WARMING LATE TONIGHT. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 7C TO 10C...THIS IS BORDERLINE FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN...BUT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COVER AND SOME
UPSLOPE DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH BORDERLINE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T. WILL
ALSO HANG ONTO AREAS OF UPSLOPE FOG FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AND HAVE
THIS INTO TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS. AT KIWD...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. KCMX WILL HAVE IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE -DZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE  PERSISTENT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT...N TO NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM BELOW 20KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN ONTARIO
MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU NIGHT.
FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING NW WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





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