Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 290530
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
130 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR
NERN MT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
AND A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND DROP ACROSS THE CWA MON...BUT THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OFF THE
E...FAVORING THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE JUST N TO NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE BETTER SHORTWAVE AND JET
FORCING WILL BE. STILL...THINK RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH HIGH POPS REMAINING OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE NLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON
OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON MON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER NWRN UPPER MI...TO THE MID 50S
SCENTRAL. NLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND MON WILL NOT HELP IT FEEL ANY WARMER...DROPPING WINDS
CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR OVER NRN UPPER MI.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST SINCE THINGS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE LAST DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOKS LIKE SOME REMAINING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
CONTINUED UPSLOPE AND CYCLONIC NE FLOW. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY
TUE MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM IS
QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN ENDING THE PCPN ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS SOON
AFTER 00Z TUE...BUT THE MODELS NORMALLY ARE TOO QUICK TO END THE
PRECIPITATION IN THESE TYPES OF CASES. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS IN N-CENTRAL UPPER MI MON EVENING...AND DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUE. AFTER A
COOL MORNING...IT SHOULD BECOME A PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WED...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA
LATE WED INTO THU MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. LATE WED AFTN
INTO WED NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST...THIS
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. BY
THU. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE LIKELY POPS WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST
AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DO NOT EXPECT AN ALL
DAY RAIN...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND.

THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONGENSIS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN POOR
AGREEMENT IN WHERE THE STRONGEST CYCLONGENSIS OCCURS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM ARE THE WEAKEST AND FURTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE
FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD MORE OF AN ECMWF/GEM SOLN. STILL...IT
LOOKS LIKE SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE IT WILL BE A RAINY PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD...AS WELL AS AT LEAST A LITTLE BREEZY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE LAKE ITSELF. BY SATURDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TO BELOW ZERO FROM ALL THE NWP. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CHC
POPS IF NOTHING ELSE CLOSE TO THE LAKE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN. WILL
DRY IT OUT ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD HAS SPREAD INTO KSAW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN IN ITS WAKE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX THIS AFTN AS THE NE WIND WILL BE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP S...PASSING ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO.
WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT THRU THE
UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.