Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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344
FXUS63 KMQT 121038
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
538 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE
TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING SOME OF THE COLDEST
AIR AND WIND CHILLS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SEASON. SEE THE
LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR WARNING AND ADVISORY DETAILS.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. ALOFT...A 500MB CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL SLIDE INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL HELP WINDS BECOME
FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS ALOFT ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS COUPLED WITH CAA AND
INCREASED OVER WATER INSTABILITY WILL HELP WINDS GUST AS HIGH 40 TO
45 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAREST THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. THE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW
OVER THE EASTERN U.P. MAY LEAD TO BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS AT TIME
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OPEN AREA AND LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR OVER THE EAST.

AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA TODAY...850MB TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM THE -18C TO -22C RANGE IN THE MORNING TO THE -24C TO -
26C RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE SHIFTING FROM WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
FAVORED LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS BY MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS TO AROUND 10KFT WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE EASTERN U.P. THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DOMINANT
BANDS TO SETUP WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE HEAVIER SNOW TO MAKE IT INTO
NORTHEASTERN DELTA COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. THIS
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW HAS LED TO
THE EXPANSION OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY INTO THESE AREAS. THE
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL START OUT CLOSE TO 20-22:1 THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE
DGZ DOWN TO A VERY SHALLOW LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WHEN THIS HAPPENS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
SNOWFLAKE SIZE WILL SHRINK AND AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 14:1 TO 16:1 ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P. MOISTURE IS MORE
SHALLOW OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD SO
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE VISIBILITY
TO BE REDUCED AT TIMES FOR MOST LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED CAA. THIS COLDER AIR...LOW SINGLE DIGITS LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALLOW WIND
CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL FURTHER TONIGHT...TO AROUND 10 BELOW OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF
OF THE AREA ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO STAY LOW THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WL BE QUITE COLD WITH H85 TEMPS
IN THE -25C TO -28C AT 12Z SAT SUPPORTING LES IN THE NW WIND SN
BELTS. BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS WL
DIMINISH THE LES BY LATE SAT NGT...WHICH MAY TURN OUT TO BE QUITE
COLD AT SOME PLACES AS SFC HI PRES RDG CROSSES THE CWA. WAA BTWN THE
DEPARTING HI AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD THRU THE NCENTRAL
STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SN ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF LES AND COLDER WX WL ARRIVE ON TUE
INTO WED AS THE COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE
PASSES THE UPR LKS ON TUE. WARMER WX MAY BE IN STORE LATE NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPR FLOW TRANSITIONS FM A WRN RDG/ERN TROF ORIENTATION TO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW MORE TYPICAL OF THE ONGOING STRONG EL NINO.

SAT...ONGOING LES OVER THE WRN CWA WL DIMINISH/END ON SAT UNDER
VIGOROUS DNVA/12HR H5 HGT RISES APRCHG 150M AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV
RDG AXIS THAT DROP SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT AGL AND BLDG SFC
HI PRES/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THESE NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS WL IMPACT THE LES INTENSITY OVER THE NW WIND SN BELTS E OF
MQT...PERSISTENT LLVL CNVGC FCST UNDER H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -24C THRU
00Z SUN AND ALONG LINGERING LK INDUCED TROF WL KEEP THE SN SHOWERS
GOING IN THIS AREA. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR...THE DGZ WL BE QUITE
SHALLOW AND LIMIT SN/WATER RATIOS AND SN ACCUMS. ALTHOUGH THERE WL
BE STILL SOME BLSN OF THE FINE FLAKES IN THE MRNG WITH NW H925 WINDS
UP TO 30-35 KTS...WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS
HAZARD THRU THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE W
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC HI PRES RDG...H85 TEMPS RECOVERING ONLY
TO -18C OVER THE W WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE INTO THE SINGLE
NUMBERS AT MOST PLACES.

SAT NGT...LINGERING LES OVER THE E WL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND END AS THE
SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS PASSES TO THE E BY 12Z AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY FALL QUICKLY WITH LGT WINDS/CLRG OF THE
LO CLDS UNDER THE PASSING RDG AXIS...INCRSG S WINDS LATER AT NGT AND
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HI CLDS IN THE WAA UNDER TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING SFC HI PRES AND FALLING MSLP IN THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL TEND TO LIMIT HOW FAR TEMPS FALL
OVER THE W. EXPECT THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE SCENTRAL WHERE
EARLIER CLRG AND LIGHTER WINDS FOR A LONGER TIME ALLOW A LONGER
PERIOD OF FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SUN/SUN NGT...SINCE SHRTWV IN THE NRN PLAINS AND ACCOMPANYING
SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ARE FCST TO DIG TO THE SE...
EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SN ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING SW FLOW/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO REMAIN MAINLY TO THE SW OF UPR MI. THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY A BIT FARTHER TO THE NE WITH LOWER MSLP AND ITS
QPF...BUT EVEN THAT MODEL INDICATES THE SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON
THE 280-285K SFCS /H8-7/ WL REMAIN MAINLY IN WI...AND IS NOT
PREFERRED BY WPC. THE BEST CHC FOR MORE SN WL BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE CWA DOWWIND OF LK MI WHERE S WINDS OFF THAT BODY OF WATER WL
ALLOW FOR SOME LES IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS SLOWLY RISING FM -
18C AT 12Z SUN TO ARND -12C TOWARD 12Z MON. WITH THE WAA/INCRSG H85
TEMPS...EXPECT MORE MODERATE SFC TEMPS.

MON/MON NGT...EXPECT PERSISTENT LO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SN DURING THIS
TIME WITH CONTINUED GENERAL WAA BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES MOVING THRU
THE MID ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES DIGGING SE TOWARD
THE UPR LKS WITHIN LARGER SCALE TROF OVER ECENTRAL NAMERICA. LACK OF
SGNFT MSTR INFLOW AND RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING WL LIMIT POPS AND PCPN
AMOUNTS. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED H85 TEMPS RISING TO ARND -5C LATER ON
MON. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS WRMG...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO AT LEAST NORMAL.

TUE/TUE NGT...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FROPA/INFLUX OF COLDER AIR THAT DROPS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -20C
TUE NGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE UPR LKS. WITH TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT/H925 WINDS UP TO 30KTS SUPPORTING THE VIGOROUS CAA...
THERE WL LIKELY BE SOME BLSN AS WELL. BUT THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
HINTS MORE AGGRESSIVE DRYING/BLDG SFC HI PRES WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF THIS LES EVENT DESPITE THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR.

EXTENDED...INCOMING CNDN SFC HI PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY CHILLY AND
DRY WX FOR WED. A CHC OF SN WL RETURN ON THU IN THE WAA PATTERN LEFT
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC HI PRES. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
HINTS AT A FAIRLY SHARP WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEK/PERHPAS SOME RAIN AS
THE UPR FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN MORE TYPCIAL OF
ONGOING STRONG EL NINO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH/ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE WILL
SPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING STARTING WITH KCMX AND THEN SPREADING INTO
KIWD AND KSAW.  EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR TO
OCCASIONAL LIFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS A TROUGH AND
STRONGER NNW WINDS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR...RESULTING IN LOWERED
VSBYS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW WHILE KSAW FARTHER INLAND FROM THE LAKE SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

EXPECT NW VEERING N GALES TO 35-40 KTS UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN LO PRES MOVING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND SPRAWLING ARCTIC HI
PRES BUILDING FROM SCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PERSIST OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE INTO SAT...WHEN THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS THE HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
SINCE THIS STRONG NNW FLOW WILL ADVECT BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE THE RULE INTO
SAT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W PORTION OF LAKE SUP. AFTER A PERIOD OF
LIGHTER WINDS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A STRONG S WIND UP TO 25-30
KTS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MON UNDER THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI PRES AND ANOTHER LO PRES TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. MORE N GALES MAY OCCUR OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
LAKE ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROF.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001>004-
     007-013-014-084-085.

  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ009>012.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC



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