Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 261951
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
351 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED UPPER MI FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER IS NOW CENTERED SE OF JAMES BAY AND IS CONTINUING TO DRIFT
E. UPSTREAM...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NRN ONTARIO. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AND DEPARTING
THERMAL TROF RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY COPPER HARBOR TO MARQUETTE TO IRON
MTN. TO THE W...ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM THE PACIFIC NW FOREST
FIRES IS ONCE AGAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH LEADING
EDGE APPROACHING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/FAR NW WI.

SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD
ON THU. MAIN FCST ISSUES WILL REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS/TEMPS AND
FROST/FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE CLEARING OUT
FROM NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
CERTAINLY CONCERN THAT CLEARING MAY NOT PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH SE
BEFORE LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER AND EITHER HOLD CLOUDS IN OVER THE E OR
BRING THEM BACK. FOR NOW...THE PLAN IS FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO
CONTINUE MIXING OUT THE MOISTURE FROM THE W AND AID THE CURRENT SE
CLEARING TREND...HELPING IT PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH THAT CLOUDS WILL
STAY E OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. IF CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT OF THE
ERN FCST AREA BY SUNSET...SKIES PROBABLY WON`T CLEAR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A COOL NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES/CALM
WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. LEANED
FCST SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD BOTH BIAS CORRECTED CANADIAN MODELS FOR
MINS DUE TO THEIR USUAL BETTER PERFORMANCE IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS. EXPECT THE NORMAL COLD AREAS IN THE INTERIOR TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS DOWN INTO THE MID
30S. WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FROST IN THE FCST. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP AS WELL NEAR RIVERS/STREAMS/LAKES/SWAMPY AREAS.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON THU AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DRIFT E. WITH LINGERING DRY AIR MASS...EXPECT ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...THOUGH SKY WILL LIKELY BE HAZY WITH ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. WITH MORNING 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C AND RISING
1-2C DURING THE DAY...EXPECT AFTN MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODERATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF VERY COOL WX...LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF MORE
SEASONABLE WX TO END THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS
LATE THU NGT INTO SAT...PCPN CHCS APPEAR LIMITED BY THE PLACEMENT OF
UPR MI BTWN DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE N AND S OF THE UPR LKS. A
RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE WX APPEARS ON TAP NEXT WEEK AS AN UPR RDG IS
FCST TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF
ACROSS THE W.

THU...EXPECT A MOSUNNY AND WARMER DAY ON THU WITH HI PRES/ACYC SW
FLOW/DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING. H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 12-14C BY LATE
IN THE DAY WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER MOST
OF THE CWA AWAY FM LK MI MODERATION.

THU NGT...UPR MI IS FCST TO BE SITUATED BTWN FAST WNW FLOW OVER SRN
CANADA AND A WEAKER SRN STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A DISTURBANCE
IN THE NRN STREAM IS FCST TO SLIDE ESEWD THRU ONTARIO DURING THE NGT
WITH ATTENDANT COLD FNT APRCHG NW LK SUP LATE. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SHRTWV IN THE SRN BRANCH WL BE DRIFTING SLOWLY ESEWD THRU THE MID/
UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF GENERATED SOME SPOTTY
LGT PCPN OVER THE NW HALF OF UPR MI LATE AT NGT WITH THE RETURN OF
SOME HIER H85 THETA E AIR IN THE WLY FLOW TO THE S OF DISTURBANCE
PASSING THRU ONTARIO...AXIS OF WEAK FORCING/LINGERING LLVL ACYC FLOW
OVER UPR MI BTWN AREAS OF SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING/CYC FLOW PASSING
TO THE S AND THE N AS WELL AS NOCTURNAL COOLING FAVOR THE DRIER
MODELS. SO CUT POPS TO NO HIER THAN LO CHC NEAR ISLE ROYALE CLOSER
TO APRCHG COLD FNT.

FRI THRU SAT...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR S COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING NRN BRANCH SHRTWV WL
REACH/BECOME STNRY AND ALSO ON TRACK OF SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE/NRN
EDGE OF ACCOMPANYING PCPN SHIELD. GIVEN THE BLDG UPR RDG IN THE
PLAINS THAT WL FAVOR A MORE WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR LKS...
SUSPECT THE 00Z ECMWF/18Z GFS SHOWING A FARTHER N PCPN AREA ARE OFF
THE MARK AND THAT THE FARTHER S TRACK OF THE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
IS CORRECT WITH ACCOMPANYING PCPN REMAINING TO THE S OF UPR MI.
SEEMS THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN WL BE IF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN
BRANCH FLOW OVER SCENTRAL CANADA DRIFTS CLOSE ENUF TO THE STNRY FNT
ALIGNED W-E SOMEWHERE IN THE UPR LKS TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/PERHAPS
A TS OVER UPR MI. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SFC FNT
POSITIONED TO THE N OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING AXIS OF LLVL ACYC FLOW
OVER UPR MI...TENDED TO GO NO HIER THAN LO CHC POPS. WITH H85 TEMPS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 14C...EXPECT TEMPS TO AVG A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

SAT NGT THRU TUE...BLDG UPR RDG DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING TROF OVER
WRN NAMERICA IS FCST TO DOMINATE THE GREAT LKS...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF DRY AND WARMER WX AS A LLVL ACYC SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PREVAILS. H85 TEMPS FCST TO
REACH 16-20C ON SUN AND THEN AOA 20C ON MON WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS
A COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV RIDING OVER THE UPR RDG MAY
APRCH OR PASS NEXT TUE AND BRING SOME SHOWERS/TS AS EARLY AS LATE
MON...WL GO NO HIER THAN LO CHC POPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF
THE UPR RDG.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTN. KIWD HAS ALREADY CLEARED
OUT...AND VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THERE THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD. AT KCMX/KSAW...MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT FOR NOW...INCLUDED MVFR VIS LATE TONIGHT ONLY AT
KSAW WITH CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE AT THAT TERMINAL. ITS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RESULT IF FOG
DOES DEVELOP AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH DRIFTS E
ON THU...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT THOUGH LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER
E TO SE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN IN THE VCNTY OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE
MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 20KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON


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