Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 161939
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
339 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

Early morning clouds pushed east of the area, and has resulted in a
partly sunny afternoon. Southerly flow has allowed surface
conditions to warm back above seasonal conditions with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Morning convection upstream across Wisconsin
has since weakened, but the cloud remnants are beginning to approach
the western Upper Peninsula. Dewpoints are also remaining elevated
this afternoon in the lower to middle 60s, resulting in some
increased humdity. For the remainder of this afternoon and evening
clouds will be on the increase. The trough of low pressure that has
produced the clouds and precip will slide north/northeast across
Northern Minnesota into Western Ontario. Instability late this
afternoon and early evening does not look overly exciting, but there
could be enough to support a few stronger storms to develop mainly
along the western half of the U.P.

The wrinkle or challenge for strong development could be the path of
the low pressure, which would place the U.P. in a slightly more
diffluent zone and the environment could be less favorable later
this evening. Nonetheless the dynamics/forcing could still warrant a
few storms through tonight from west to east, ending shortly before
daybreak Sun across the eastern U.P. Overnight lows will once again
remain mild due to the thick cloud cover and areas of rain. So have
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, but this could be more low/mid
60s.

Frontal boundary will be progressive and push thru the U.P. by mid-
morning Sun, ushering in slightly cooler and more seasonal airmass
to the U.P. with highs Sun afternoon in the 60s to lower 70s. The
pressure gradient will tighten slightly and could produce some gusty
winds at times through the afternoon, then decrease closer to sunset
Sun.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

Only significantly impactful weather expected in the long term is
some potential for frost over the interior W Sun night. Biggest
story is that after near normal days on Mon and Tue, temps will
continue to be 5-10 (or possibly even greater) above normal.

A shortwave may bring a quick burst of decent rainfall to parts of
the CWA Mon afternoon into Mon night. Then another shortwave and
cold front may bring a round of showers and thunderstorms Wed into
Wed night. Precip will then be possible Fri through Sat.

Did not make any changes to the blended initialization.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 257 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

Mainly VFR conds will persist through this evening; however, with
increasing clouds from the west/southwest to east and precip chances
steadily increasing later, cigs will thicken and slowly lower from
west to east towards MVFR conds. Guidance has backed off on
confidence to thunderstorm chances and coverage will continue to
remain low. Expect periodic thunderstorms between 00-04z for IWD,
and 01-06 at CMX, and 03-07Z at SAW. Then some lingering showers
will come to an end around 12-14z, ending earlier at IWD and CMX.
With cigs slowly lifting as drier air and breezy conditions develop.
Expect winds to shift from southeast to southwest then shift to the
west/northwest.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 257 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017

Winds of 20 to 30 knots will persist through this afternoon, but
with clouds increasing expect winds to diminish to 10 to 20 kt later
this evening from the south/southwest.

By Sunday morning, expect the winds to pick back up to around 20 to
30 knots as a cold front pushes east across the lake. Winds will
relax to around or less than 15 knots by early Monday morning
through Tuesday. By Wednesday winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots
briefly, and then will be around 20 knots through the end of next
week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Beachler
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Beachler
MARINE...Beachler



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