Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 010915
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR INL THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO NW IA. A WEAK SHRTWV
FROM NE MN INTO NW WI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
OVER ERN MN INTO NW WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A STRONGER SHRTWV WAS
LOCATED OVER SW MN INTO NW IA. WITH ONLY MODEST 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...ONLY A FEW TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION. THE MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
STRONGER 850 THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.

TODAY...AS THE NW IA SHRTWV LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA WITH MODERATE
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH
0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SINCE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...MAINLY JUST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
QVECTOR DIV SPREADS INTO UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE EVENING WILL
END EARLY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ALSO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED LATE OVER THE SW CWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...LLWS AND NMRS HEAVY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS RIDING NNEWD
UNDER A STRONG SSW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FNT WILL
IMPACT THIS SITE THRU SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE HEAVIER SHRA...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. THE CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FNT
PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA WL TAP DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR WX AS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SHRA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APRCHG COLD FNT EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E. LLWS WL BE THE RULE THRU
SUNRISE UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ. A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WITH SOME CONTINUED -SHRA WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND
TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CIGS TO LINGER THRU THE NGT WITH A MOIST
SLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LLWS DRAWING LLVL
MSTR N FM LK MI IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP BY LATE MRNG WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF
SFC COLD FNT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN WITH A WSHFT TO A
DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
AREAS OF FOG PERSISTING UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB






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