Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 251438
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
938 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WILL SLOWLY END THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK AND WILL PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN MANY AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THERE MAY STILL BE A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND FROM
THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER TO WESTERN OSWEGO COUNTY THROUGH
MIDDAY. EXPECT THIS TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND END THIS AFTERNOON
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS QUICKLY CRASH...AND THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE LOWER LAKES. OTHERWISE AFTER SOME
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING...LAKE EFFECT STRATUS IS RAPIDLY
EXPANDING INTO ALL AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AGAIN. SATELLITE
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THIS HAS SOME STAYING POWER...SO DONT EXPECT
MUCH SUNSHINE UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON FROM OSWEGO COUNTY
WESTWARD. THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THE OTHER HAND WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

A CLIPPER PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL
BRING A THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND CHANCES TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESUPPLY COLD AIR AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND TRANSFORM ITSELF INTO A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
WINTER STORM AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE WORST
EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST...OUR WEATHER
WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY QUIET EITHER...AS A TRAILING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY...BEFORE
SLOWLY FADING OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS IN FACT TRENDED
A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WOULD NOW SUGGEST THAT MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE A LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BUMPED UP BOTH
POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST OF BOTH FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST
OVERALL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT...AND WHERE SOME LOW-END
ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

WHILE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE INVERTED TROUGH /WHERE MOISTURE MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS DEEP/ BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AT THIS JUNCTURE MODEL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LARGELY BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE...AND AS SUCH HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THIS IN THE GOING FORECAST.

DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY...THE COASTAL WINTER STORM WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...
WHILE LIKELY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NEW ENGLAND AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. WHILE THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SAFELY TO OUR EAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z
GFS/GLOBAL GEM AND ECMWF ALL NOW AGREE ON WRAPPING THE WESTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS BACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD DURING TUESDAY...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW OF
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL AVERAGE SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10 ABOVE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS AS IF IT MAY
BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION...
THOUGH HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN CONTINUED NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES IN TIMING SEEN IN THE
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN
INITIAL NORTHWESTERLY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PROBABLY GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE READINGS FALL OFF AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS IS POISED TO SWEEP INTO
OUR REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTING 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO BETWEEN MINUS 25
AND MINUS 30 CELSIUS NEXT WEEK SUNDAY. SHOULD THIS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE START OF FEBRUARY SHOULD FEATURE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO
DATE. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY WITH
AN AREA OF LAKE EFFECT STRATUS. SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY
MAINLY VFR IN MOST AREAS. THE FLURRIES WILL END THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SLOWLY SCATTERING OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND
WAVES DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WCH
MARINE...WCH




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