Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 280836
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
436 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDING SHOWERS CHANCES NORTH TOWARDS
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FILL ON TODAY AS IT GETS SHEARED
OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE PIECES OF
THIS DISSIPATING LOW ARE ADVECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES...THEY WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WEAK LIFT ALOFT AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.

BY THIS AFTERNOON THESE SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER, THOUGH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER AS LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY AS ONE MOVES
NORTH TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...STRONG CONVERGENCE ALOFT
NORTH OF THE THRUWAY SHOULD PRECLUDE SHOWERS FROM EXTENDING NORTH
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT PREVENT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM CONTINUING TO THICKEN AS THEY PRESS NORTHWARDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA COURTESY OF THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL FOR LATE
APRIL WITH HIGHS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH WARMEST
AREAS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPING
AND HIGH CLOUDS THINNEST.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS SMALL
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE BY ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER AND A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS WILL SERVE TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LINGERING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY
WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN WESTERN NEW
YORK TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS OHIO INTO SOUTHERN PA. AGAIN THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE 12Z GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
NAM AND CANADIAN GEM. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE PA SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE RAIN WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER...WHILE THE COUNTRY WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. THE ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO GENESEE VALLEY...AND LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S DESPITE
COOLER AIR ALOFT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES ENDING DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AREAWIDE AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY... A WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS... THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY... AND MERGING WITH THE
MEAN TROUGH IN PLACE FROM THE HUDSON BAY ACROSS THE NORTH EAST
CONUS. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH PLENTY IN QUESTION IN
TERMS OF INTENSITY/COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE. THE MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE
NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK... WITH
MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES PIVOT
AROUND THE THROUGH IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH HIGHEST CHANCES BEING RIGHT ALONG
THE PA BORDER.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY EVEN AS
HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MIDDLE CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 7-
10KFT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR
RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY AND MOISTURE DEEPENS
SOMEWHAT. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE MVFR SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
RETREAT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKES. RESULTING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN
UP TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERATING WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. WAVE WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA
AGAIN ON FRIDAY...REPEATING THE PROCESS WITH SIMILAR RESULTS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD


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