Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 261514
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1114 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY. LATER THIS EVENING...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND THE
FRONT EXPECT A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL ARRIVE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN MARYLAND IS STRETCHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES TODAY. ALOFT A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES IS BEING BROKEN DOWN BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS ACROSS WNY WITH A
BAND OF MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EXTENDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR PEAK HEATING
BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TO REMAIN DRY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A STRAY SHOWER MAY DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKE
ERIE BREEZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME BREEZY AS AFTERNOON
MIXING OCCURS WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS GREATER BUFFALO. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH
850MB TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WILL BRING A VERY WARM LATE SUMMER DAY
TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 80S...WITH
MID AND UPPER 80S FOUND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND VALLEYS. WITHIN
THE GENESEE VALLEY A DOWNSLOPE WIND MAY BRING A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS. COUPLED WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MUGGY FEEL TO
THE AIR. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL EASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE.
DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LINGER AND THIS INSTABILITY WILL FUEL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT NEARS.
MOISTURE IS FOUND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAY OUTPACE THE BEST
LIFT FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS
TO BE AN ABSENCE OF GOOD MID LEVEL LIFT/NO JET STREAK DYNAMICAL LIFT
OR LIFT FROM NEGATIVE PVA. FOR THE RAIN SHOWER TIMING EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO REACH BUFFALO/WATERTOWN BETWEEN 9P AND 12
MIDNIGHT...THEN DROP TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE UPPER GENESEE
VALLY LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS VEER
AROUND TO WNW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A WEAKENING BAND OF CONVECTION WITH IT. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK BEHIND
THE FROM STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW...ENSURING A DRY PERIOD WITH
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS IS
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BUT THE AIR MASS
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CRESTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING
80S ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A "RIDGE-RIDER" THAT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING THE SYSTEM RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA
VALLEY....THEREFORE AM ONLY STICKING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BETWEEN THE
MODELS DIFFERS MARKEDLY...SO WILL HAVE TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY. WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH 20-25 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE
INCLUDING KBUF-KIAG FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME LOCAL FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKE.

TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL EXPECT
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SOME
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS COOL AND MOIST WNW WIND FLOW PASSES
ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE IN AREAS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS FALL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO THE EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A WNW DIRECTION. THESE WNW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
RISE WAVE HEIGHTS ON LAKE ONTARIO LATER WEDNESDAY WITH SCA POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WATERS. WAVES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET OR LESS ON LAKE ERIE WITH THE PERPENDICULAR
WIND FLOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH/THOMAS






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