Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 301856
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
256 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN WITH WARM
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TO
DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS RUNNING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO NOSE UPWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED
HEATING...THEREFORE EXPECT COVERAGE TO GROW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS WITH
LIMITING FORCING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FILLS AND SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND DIURNAL HEATING
DISSIPATES WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE
60S AND ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKESHORES.

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL UNDERGO STEADY DOWNSTREAM
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO SUBSTANTIAL
HEIGHT FALLS WORKING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PROCESS WILL
EFFECTIVELY PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY. AN INCREASING DEGREE OF STABILITY UNDER THE ATTENDANT
MINIMUM IN THETA-E AND AN ELEVATED MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE
WILL YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND NO REAL OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A NOTED UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
RELATIVE TO TODAY...WITH DAYTIME READINGS REACHING THE LOWER TO
MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR...LARGELY DRY WEATHER AND MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH/HUMIDITY WILL
DOMINATE THIS PERIOD...COURTESY OF PERSISTENT SURFACE-BASED
RIDGING FIRMLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A CORRESPONDING BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DRAPED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ABOUT THE ONLY
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES...AND FOR WHICH SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN +17C AND +18C...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH SOME OF OUR
NORMAL WARM SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES /SUCH AS
DANSVILLE/ POSSIBLY TICKLING 90 DEGREES ON ONE OR BOTH DAYS.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S...SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN THIS
PERIOD HAVING A RATHER DISTINCT WARM AND MUGGY FEEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
ATTEMPT TO BUCK THE STRONG EASTERN CONUS RIDGE AND PUSH ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY FAIL IN ITS ATTEMPT TO DO
SO...WHILE WASHING OUT IN THE PROCESS. THUS...WHILE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THURSDAY/FRIDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH EITHER THIS FEATURE OR DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN
LARGELY DRY.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL ADVERTISE FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DAYTIME HEATING AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP DEVELOP
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN
FINGER LAKES AS A TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND WRN FINGER LAKES WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
IN HEAVIER -SHRA/-TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS.

EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH
FILLS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WITH CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
FORECAST... LOOK FOR VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST ON THE LAKES TONIGHT AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FRESHEN MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
QUEBEC/LABRADOR...HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THE LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA


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