Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 151405
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1005 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW OVER WESTERN NY AND RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN HELP BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION AT 14Z WITH 12Z
KBUF SOUNDINGS TOGETHER WITH UPSTREAM YYZ AMDAR DATA AT 13Z
SHOWING HOW QUICKLY THE AIR COOLED ALOFT. OBSERVATIONAL DATA
TOGETHER WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FAIRLY QUICK END TO
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEST...PROBABLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF THE SNOW SHOULD SIMILARLY END OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT UNTIL
LATE TODAY FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS STILL
LOOK GOOD /T-1 LOWER TERRAIN 1-3 HIGHER TERRAIN/ AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS THERE. DUAL POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT DOES A NICE
JOB MARKING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE.

BEHIND THE STEADIER SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE-ENHANCED/LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...THANKS TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF -15C AIR CROSSING
THE LAKE AT 850 MB. WHILE THESE WILL NOT BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND
5-6 KFT...THESE COULD STILL PUT DOWN A COUPLE OF INCHES OR SO
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT. ELSEWHERE... SOME ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHICALLY-
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE SIMILARLY DYING OUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BACK TO WELL BELOW
NORMALS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ALL AREAS SEEING READINGS PLUNGE TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE FURTHER DROPPING TO
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT. RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH ARE
20 IN BUFFALO...22 IN ROCHESTER...AND 25 IN WATERTOWN...AND ALL
APPEAR TO AT LEAST HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT BEING BROKEN.

CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST ON
THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH MORE
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE EXTREMES OF EARLY THIS WEEK...THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH QUITE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS...A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GGEM/ECMWF/GFS ARE
A BIT FASTER WITH A CLIPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO CROSS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GGEM IS A MOIST OUTLIER...BUT MOST
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE POPS.

AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHICH WILL
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT WEAK SYSTEMS WHICH MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AT THIS TIMEFRAME IS LOW...WITH FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS SNOW MOVES
EAST OF WNY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
        PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...JJR/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...JJR





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