Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 272054
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
454 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the Southeast Coast will combine with
persistent low pressure over the center of the country to keep a
feed of warm humid air in place through the bulk of the long holiday
weekend. The mid-summer like warmth will fuel some widely separated
showers and thunderstorms mainly away from the lakes each day
through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Any remaining showers or thunderstorms over the Finger Lakes or
Southern Tier this evening will quickly subside with the setting
sun. Expect another warm and humid night across western and north
central New York with temperatures only settling into the low to mid
60s. These values will be more typical of those found in July or
early August.

On Saturday expect similar conditions to what we are seeing this
afternoon. Warm and humid temperatures and chances of showers and
thunderstorms firing along lake breezes. We will see an uptick again
in surface temperatures as 850mb level temperatures rise another
degree or two to around 18C. This combined with subsidence from
increasing 500mb ridging aloft will help boost surface highs into
the mid to upper 80s for most with 90 possible with light downslope
flow in the Genesee Valley and below the Niagara Escarpment. Combine
these temperatures with the high humidity and heat index values will
push into the 90s across many locations. Some of these
temperatures will challenge record highs with more detail in the
Climate section below. While these are not Heat Advisory
level...this will be the warmest day of the year so those not yet
acclimated to the heat should take precaution. Concerning the
thunderstorm chances, the same problems that are limiting storm
intensity today (Friday) will also limit intensity tomorrow.
Coverage should again remain mainly south and east of ROC but
can`t rule out some activity firing west of ROC south of Lake
Ontario toward Niagara Falls.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region through Sunday. The ridge will finally loosen its grip
on Monday and a trough over the upper Great Lakes shifts east.

The big story continues to be the early season heat and humidity
through the first part of the period.  Temperatures Sunday will
just be a tad lower than Saturday with another warm muggy night
on tap Sunday night with temperatures only lowering to the mid 60s
in most spots.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms again develop on Sunday during
the afternoon and early evening hours. These will once again focus
on and inland of the lake breezes and leftover boundaries of
previous convection.

A shortwave will approach the region from the Upper Lakes Sunday
night with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Activity will
end from west to east on Monday... most likely late morning across
western New York and during the afternoon over the Finger Lakes and
Eastern Lake Ontario region.  The passage of the cool front will
bring a bit of relief temperature-wise with highs on Monday within
a few degrees of 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cooler and drier air will push into Western and North-Central New
York Monday Night in the wake of a cool frontal passage, ushering in
a period of quieter weather. This period of tranquil early summer
weather will be driven by upper level ridging that will be amplifying
over the Lower Great Lakes in response to a trough digging across
the Northern Rockies and Upper Missouri Valley. Dry conditions with
seasonably warm temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average should
prevail at least through Wednesday Night.

While model guidance differs somewhat in terms of details, the
general trend for the latter portion of next week will be a return
to more unsettled weather as the upper level ridge either flattens
out or shifts off to the east, depending on the model solution.
Either way, this will pave the way for a return to more humid
conditions with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday
will be the transition day between the outgoing ridging and incoming
troughing, so have elected to go with low chance pops for the time
being.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through tonight and Saturday as ridging.
Similar conditions expected on Saturday as what we are seeing today
with high pressure remaining in control. Storms may fire along lake
breeze boundaries in the afternoon near KROC and KJHW so have
covered this will VCSH as convection is not expected until after
18z. All other sites should be free of storms thanks to stable lake
breeze flow.

Outlook...
Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A burgeoning ridge centered off the Southeast Coast...but extending
to the northwest across the Lower Great Lakes...will keep mainly
fair weather in place through at least the first half of the
Memorial Day weekend. A few storms firing along lake breeze
boundaries tomorrow afternoon may clip the nearshore waters.
Otherwise expect light winds and negligible waves.

While fine conditions for recreational boating will likely persist
through Sunday...there will be an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday as a frontal system will move
across the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH/SMITH
MARINE...CHURCH/SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.