Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 291945
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
245 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a cloudy, and mild night a wave of low pressure will spread
rain across the region on Wednesday. Behind this wave of low
pressure a colder airmass will sweep across the region Wednesday
night with some lake effect rain showers Wednesday night and
Thursday that will mix with some snow Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An occluded front has reached the far western areas of WNY this
afternoon. As this front pushes eastward, partial clearing will
occur...as noted on visible satellite imagery by the breaks in the
clouds upstream behind the front. This front will slow as it makes
its eastward progression this afternoon, and clouds skies will
likely continue across our CNY counties.  Afternoon temperatures are
expected to reach into the 50s and lower 60s or some 10-20 degrees
above normal.

For tonight the region will likely remain dry, mostly cloudy...and
mild with a southerly flow aloft. A wet ground tonight may bring
some patches of fog, especially across the northern Finger Lakes and
Eastern Lake Ontario region. Overnight lows will linger through the
low to mid 40s overnight, which will be 15 to 20 degrees above
normal.

The final day of November will end on a wet note. A broad longwave
trough over the nations heartland this afternoon will spawn a wave
of low pressure overnight across the southern Mississippi Valley.
This low will pick up additional Gulf of Mexico moisture while
racing northward through the night. Isentropic lift of this moisture
will likely bring an area of rain to SW NYS just before sunrise
tomorrow. This low will cross the Ohio Valley tomorrow, reaching
near WNY by late tomorrow afternoon. In addition to rain spreading
across the region, there may be some patches of fog forming, this
time mainly across the higher terrain of WNY, and then later in the
day near the center of the low as it clips NW NYS.

Overall rainfall will range from a quarter to half an inch with
this system, and should be handled by local streams and creeks.

Highs tomorrow will remain mild again ahead of the cold front
trailing this wave of low pressure. We should see air temperatures
again climb into the 50s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Broad, vertically stacked closed low will move east from Southern
Ontario into Quebec Wednesday night, pushing a cold front east
across the Lower Great Lakes. The steadiest rains will move east of
the area with the passage of the cold front. Only marginally cold
air behind the front initially with 850 mb temperatures only falling
to around -2 to -3c by Thursday morning. This cooler flow combined
with incoming wrap around moisture may generate some lake
enhanced/upslope rain showers east of Lake Erie before Thursday
morning. The cold air advection regime will allow for a better mixed
environment with gusty winds developing behind the front. Momentum
transfer scheme of Bufkit profiles suggesting gusts to 40 to 45 mph,
especially downwind of the lakes. Overnight temperatures only slip
back into the lower 40s at lower elevations and upper 30s higher
terrain by Thursday morning, still a good deal above normal.

Thursday, elongated area of surface low pressure will have moved off
to the north with associated broad upper closed low move into
Southern Quebec. This will maintain a deep mixed layer with the
gusty winds continuing. Moisture continuing to wrap into the region
and steady weak cold air advection will maintain lake
enhanced/upslope rain showers east of the lakes. Thermal profiles
through the day too warm to support snow until Thursday night and
Friday as boundary layer temperatures cool sufficiently to trend
rain showers over to a mix and change over to wet snow, especially
across the higher elevations. Thermal profiles continuing to be too
warm to support any meaningful snow accumulation, with only minor
accumulations expected across the higher elevations.

Friday night and Saturday, the pattern into the weekend will be for
troughing to remain over eastern Canada with high pressure off to
the south and west. This will result in a continuation of a
west/northwest flow with lake enhanced/effect rain/snow showers
continuing, more persistent southeast of the lakes. The lack of
really cold air will limit any snow accumulation to minor amounts
across the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday night through Sunday, cool WNW flow will remain in place,
supporting a few scattered rain and wet snow showers and some
limited lake effect southeast of the lakes. Temperatures will be
seasonable, with highs in the lower 40s at lower elevations and mid
to upper 30s across higher terrain both days this weekend.

Model guidance diverges significantly by early next week, with
plenty of run to run and inter-model differences in the handling of
a Pacific trough advancing east across the nation. This system will
be born from a split flow regime, with a southern and northern
stream system possibly phasing as they move east across the nation.
The ECMWF is a solid 24 hours faster with this system than the GFS,
bringing rain and warmer temperatures into the region by Monday,
while the GFS would delay this trend until Tuesday. Given the model
uncertainty, have maintained chance POPS going into Monday with the
arrival of milder air changing most precip to rain.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS a deck of low end VFR/MVFR clouds remained across
the TAF region. An occluded front will sweep across Western New York
this afternoon and early evening, sending the low level moisture and
clouds eastward towards CNY, where this frontal boundary will stall.

VFR flight conditions will then continue through the overnight. An
area of low pressure riding along this stalled frontal boundary will
bring an area of rain across the region tomorrow. Rain reaching the
KJHW terminal between 10 and 13Z will spread north and eastward
across the TAF region through the remainder of the TAF cycle. Flight
conditions will likely lower to MVFR within this activity.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon and evening...MVFR/IFR with another round of
rain.

Thursday and Friday...MVFR/IFR with lake effect rain/snow showers
likely.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR w/areas of MVFR east of the lakes
with rain/snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A light southerly flow tonight will begin to back to easterly by
tomorrow morning, this as a wave of low pressure nears the Ohio
Valley.

Tomorrow an easterly flow will strengthen on the Lakes, likely
reaching just over 20 knots on the western end of Lake Ontario, thus
the need for a Small Craft Advisory starting Wednesday afternoon.

This area of low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes region
Wednesday night, with a strong cold air advection following on a
westerly wind. This will bring SCA conditons to both the lakes and
rivers Wednesday night and into Thursday night. There is a small
possibility that near gale force winds will occur within the strong
cold air advection behind the cold front Wednesday night on the
Lakes.

On the Eastern Great Lakes, continual bursts of cold air will
maintain winds and waves near or above SCA thresholds into the
weekend. There is a possibility that the SCA will need to be
extended for the Lakes beyond the current end time of Friday and
Friday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 10 PM EST Friday
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST
         Friday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
         Friday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 10 PM EST
         Friday for LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 1 PM EST
         Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 10 PM EST
         Friday for LOZ044-045.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
         Friday for SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS



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