Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 010626
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
226 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING
WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TOPPED BY STRONGER NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF FOG SHOWING UP AT 2AM ACROSS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. WHILE DENSE FOG HAS NOT SHOWN UP JUST
YET...NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE MOST PROBABLE AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
RIVER VALLEYS AND EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. 11-3.9 MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY ALREADY BE
DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF KBUF FROM LAKE ERIE EAST TO SOUTH OF KROC
AS FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE SURFACE LAYER
BENEATH THE INVERSION. HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING FROM BUFFALO NORTH TO NIAGARA FALLS
UP TIL SUNRISE WHICH MAY REQUIRE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE
SCENARIO WORKS OUT. A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS
OSWEGO/JEFFERSON COUNTIES NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY MILD THIS MORNING
REFLECTING THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS
ONLY SLIPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OR MEETING DEWPOINTS.

AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SUNSHINE
AND 850MB TEMPS ABOUT +20C WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AT 6Z. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
HRRR SUGGEST LIFR OR LOWER VIS AND CIGS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD 10Z AT
ALL SITES AS LIGHT FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES INCREASES LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. KROC MAY NOT GO AS LOW AS LIFR BUT IFR LIKELY.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14-16Z THIS MORNING LEAVING
SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE
LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12
KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH



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