Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 290826
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR
NERN MT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
AND A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND DROP ACROSS THE CWA MON...BUT THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OFF THE
E...FAVORING THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE JUST N TO NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE BETTER SHORTWAVE AND JET
FORCING WILL BE. STILL...THINK RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH HIGH POPS REMAINING OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE NLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON
OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON MON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER NWRN UPPER MI...TO THE MID 50S
SCENTRAL. NLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND MON WILL NOT HELP IT FEEL ANY WARMER...DROPPING WINDS
CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR OVER NRN UPPER MI.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST SINCE THINGS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE LAST DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD HAS SPREAD INTO KSAW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN IN ITS WAKE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX THIS AFTN AS THE NE WIND WILL BE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP S...PASSING ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO.
WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT THRU THE
UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS





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