Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 110109
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
709 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Forecast on track so no changes. Continue to monitor short term
trends. Heaviest snow area Grand Forks to Bismarck via
radars...and moving NE. Within this band snowfall rates 1/2 to 1
inch per hour. But with winds, so difficult to measure. Highest
winds in the RRV as anticpated as there is a favorable 340-350
degree wind. Gusts to 35-40 kts at GFK for the highest. DVL basin
not as bad and thus vsbys more like 3/4 to 1SM vs the 1/4 at GFK
and CKN. So overall the blizzard vs warning area working out well.

As we go thru the evening issue will be snow into NW MN (esp TVF)
where advisories are out and possiblity exists for 6 inches of
snow (on high end) and need to upgrade to warning. Right now
though the latest HRRR indicates a general snowfall in NW MN with
not quite as high rates but close call to warning criteria. Also
Fargo area Snow moving in and winds there gusty as well...will see
how things evolve to see if upgrade to Blizzard is needed there.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Confidence in snowfall totals, wind speeds, and winter weather
impacts has increased enough to have a pretty good idea of what is
going to happen. Current conditions indicate a band of snowfall
from central North Dakota extending into the northern Red River
Valley related to mesoscale forcing being aided by synoptic scale
forcing. Latest CAM/High Resolution guidance indicates QPF totals
within this band of 0.40 to 0.60 inches, which would lead to an
area of 5 to 8 inches of snow (given stronger winds snow ratios
should be toward the lower end of the spectrum). Given the forcing
mechanisms involved, trust these models and will increase snowfall
totals into this range (expanded the winter storm warning
westward). Will need to monitor observations and incoming guidance
for the eastern extent of this heavier snowfall. The strongest
synoptic forcing will move through the region by this evening
which will then spread lighter QPF into the SE ND and west
central MN, although snowfall amounts will be less compared to the
northern areas.

Winds and blowing snow the other concern. Issued a blizzard
warning for the area that will experience the strongest winds and
heaviest snowfall (central/northern Red River Valley). Before the
snow started the current winds were already causing patchy areas
of 1/4 mile visibility. The coverage of these conditions has
deteriorated as the snow has begun to fall. As the snow continues
to accumulate, expect these conditions to further deteriorate.
Wind speeds expected to be 25-30mph with gusts to 35-40mph, which
will likely mean more of an open country type blizzard. Will need
to monitor other areas, but thinking is that either wind speeds or
snowfall amounts will limit the blowing snow impacts to near
blizzard conditions in open country (areas that are currently
winter storm warning). Conditions will improve after sunrise
tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

In the wake of the mid week snow and wind event, Arctic air will
continue to build into the Northern Plains. High pressure overhead
Fri night will offer optimum radiative cooling conditions and
resultant low temps colder than 20 below throughout the forecast
area. This will bring apparent temps close to 40 below even as wind
speeds remain at 5 mph or lower. Some warm air advection Sun will
allow for daytime highs edging over the zero degree mark as a trough
swings down within the NW flow aloft. Then back to frigid weather
and more dangerous apparent temp values for Sun night through Mon
night.

Two systems with migrate through the NW flow through the weekend.
The first round is slated for Fri and a southerly track is First
still favored as guidance products converge to this solution. This
will be followed by a second instance of potential snowfall for Sun,
associated with the previously mentioned upper trough and modest
warm air advection. Light accumulations would be the most likely
result. By Wed western ridging will edge closer to our area, bumping
temps up toward or beyond seasonal expectations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 705 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

For most areas IFR conditions thru the night, worst at GFK, as
snow system moves through. IFR either with vsby or ceilings.
Conditions will improve gradually Thursday daytime. Gusty north
winds 20-35 kts, highest in the RRV.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for NDZ007-014-015-
     024-026-028-038-039-049-052>054.

     Blizzard Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for NDZ008-016-027-029-
     030.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for NDZ006.

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for MNZ003-029.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Thursday for MNZ005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040.

     Blizzard Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for MNZ001-002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Riddle



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