804
FXUS63 KFGF 270355
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1055 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorm chances for
  late Friday afternoon into evening, as well as on Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Still not 1000% sold on fog tonight and winds look to stay just
strong enough to keep anything from becoming widespread. With
that said the southern valley and parts of southeast North
Dakota definitely are the favored areas. Rain has moved out of
the CWA now with just a light drizzle in the far east.

UPDATE
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Showers across north central Minnesota will continue to work
east with the mid level wave through filling low stratus on the
backside will prevent a clear night. Fog chances still looking
good in parts southeast north dakota and west central minnesota
through as far north as HWY 2 could be reasonable depending how
light winds go up north tonight. Will continue to monitor but
at this time expecting at least patchy fog in southern areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...Synopsis...

Weak mid level wave can be seen on water vapor imagery moving
through the tri-state area into northern Minnesota. This is
resulting in light rain for southeast ND, west-central MN, and
into north-central MN. With dry air near the low levels and lack
of instability combined with weak forcing with this wave, very
little is anticipated in terms of accumulation, generally less
than three tenths of an inch.

As this wave departs, lingering low clouds and cooling overnight
may result in areas of fog overnight into early morning Friday
within the Red River Valley, eastern ND, and portions of west-
central MN. Some fog may be dense.

For Friday, instability increases over central ND by late
afternoon. This develops ahead of a low amplitude shortwave
trough moving out of the northern High Plains into SK/MB by
Friday evening, with attendant weak front draped north to south
across western ND. The shortwave will provide sufficient wind
shear and forcing to bring a chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms within portions of central North Dakota into
perhaps the Devils Lake basin by sunset Friday. Eventual
upscale growth is favored as storms trek east/southeast during
the overnight hours, potentially bringing strong to severe
storms within the rest of eastern ND into portions of MN before
sunrise Saturday.

Depending on evolution of storms Friday night, ongoing storms
may be strong to severe Saturday morning. Guidance does favor a
lull in thunderstorm activity around midday Saturday before
additional thunderstorms become possible again, most likely near
west-central MN. These may be strong to severe.

Longwave trough and attendant cold front moves through the
region overnight Saturday or Sunday morning, ushering in dryer
conditions. Northwest flow and drier air mass intrusions should
promote below average precipitation, lower thunderstorm chances,
as well as near average temperatures.

... Severe risk for Friday and Saturday ...

Should storms be more discrete (more likely for locations
closer to central ND like Devils Lake basin), large hail to size
of golf balls along with wind to 70 mph. Eventual upscale
growth would favor smaller hail but still holding the potential
for gusts to 70 mph. Tornadoes are unlikely given the overall
lack of low level shear oriented in an unfavorable orientation
with respect to expected storm motion. There is a small subset
of guidance that even shows lack of thunderstorms with capping
too strong for forcing associated with the shortwave aloft
bypassing the region as it moves quicker into Canada.

Low level jet develops out of South Dakota, which should
continue to promote upstream development of thunderstorm
segments closer to southeast ND into west-central MN overnight
hours of Friday into early Saturday.

Saturday, rich instability axis moves south and east, with a
surface low/trough development in eastern SD into central MN.
Majority of guidance favors development on the northern flank of
rich instability, which may still be in portions of west-central
Minnesota by peak heating. Should storms develop here, all
hazards including large hail and tornadoes will be possible,
particularly during the first 3 hours of initiation before
upscale growth is then favored to pull thunderstorms deeper into
MN and out of our area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

With rain/drizzle now completely out of the region attention
turns to dropping ceiling with many already MVFR or near it.
Fog looks to become a late overnight problem for DVL and FAR
with a tempo near sunrise being added for this 06z set of tafs.
Clearing then expected by noon with evening storms rolling west
to east from 00z to 06z with DVL, FAR holding the highest
chance of impacts and a lower but still mention worthy chance in
GFK. TVF and BJI look to have much lower chances of storm
impacts Friday night.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...TT