000
FXUS63 KFGF 051216
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
616 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

WE HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME. THERE
WILL BE BLOWING SNOW MAINLY THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH MAINLY OPEN COUNTRY VSBY ISSUES. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

THE WINTER STORM THAT VERIFIED VERY WELL IS SLOWLY WINDING
DOWN...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LIGHT
SNOW. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING
UNTIL 12Z THU FOR ALL AREAS...THEN TRANSITION AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE VALLEY TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH SAT MORNING. WE
WILL ADD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
TONIGHT-18Z SAT FOR 25 TO 40 BELOW WIND CHILLS AND BITTERLY COLD
AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

FOR TODAY...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 20KT ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND EXPECT BLOWING SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE SINCE FALLING
SNOW WILL OR HAS ENDED...BUT OPEN COUNTRY COULD STILL SEE VSBYS
AROUND 1 MILE OR SO THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL TODAY IN
ALL AREAS WITH WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH 25 TO 40 BELOW BY MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN
FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW
ZERO IN ALL AREAS. IF MORE CLEARING OCCURS TEMPS WILL BE EVEN
COLDER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED.

FOR FRIDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO
WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES FALLING BELOW 500 DECAMETERS FOR
ALL AREAS. THESE TYPE OF THICKNESS VALUES ARE VERY LOW...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED AND GIVEN THE FRESH/DEEP SNOW PACK...TEMPS WILL HAVE
A TOUGH TIME WARMING MUCH AT ALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONTINUED BITTER COLD WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER THREATS WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS CONTINUING. ANY
AREA THAT CLEARS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND DECOUPLES...LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20S BELOW ZERO FAIRLY EASILY. IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTH
COULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING OUT AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER
WINDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY FOR ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO WITH
ARCTIC AIR FIRMLY ENTRENCHED.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. LONG WAVE UPPER LOW TO EXTEND
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON DAY 3. LONG WAVE UPPER
LOW SHIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. THE ECMWF BECOME THE FASTER
SOLUTION THEREAFTER. WILL PREFER THE FASTER ECMWF.

WILL TAKE OUT POPS ON MON IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL TRIM BACK POPS IN
THE EAST ON SUN NIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN. A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER FOR MON AND WED AND A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS MORNING WITH BLOWING SNOW. MVFR
CIGS COULD BE STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT OF THE AREA...AND WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH TODAY GUSTING TO 25KT AT TIMES. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIE DOWN TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE
KEPT TAFS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC WITH PLENTY OF HIGH RH PROGGED FROM MODELS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-
     027-029-030-040.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK