Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191951
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
251 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

The main challenge will be convective chances Sunday into Monday.
Models are in pretty good agreement with this upcoming system
later this weekend.

For tonight, there will be a few showers and a rumble of thunder
lingering through 2z and it will be dry thereafter. Temps should
be above normal and it will be mild with southerly flow
continuing.

On Friday, it should be dry with some slightly cooler/drier air
aloft advecting in from the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

For Sat, an upper ridge will build over the area at 500mb. This
will yield plentiful sunshine and with mid level temps warming it
should get to around 80 for most areas.

On Sunday...moist and unstable air will advect into the region.
PWATs will rise to around 1.5, with CAPEs over 2000 J/kg moving
into central ND later Sunday afternoon. There should be a band of
showers and storms that may quickly develop in the far west Sunday
afternoon then move east Sunday night. There could be strong to
severe storms with this system into Sunday night...so stay tuned
for later statements.

Sunday Night-Thursday...
An upper level shortwave trough and surface boundary will move
across the region Sunday Night into Monday with an increasing low-
level jet enhancing moisture return ahead of the boundary. The
highest chances for showers and storms are expected during this
time.

Temps should remain above average through early next week with
west/southwest split flow prevailing. Global models attempt to bring
a weakening upper low across the international border region during
mid week along with a weak sfc boundary, possibly with slightly
cooler temps. No strong precip signal is evident beyond Monday,
although have maintained some low pops through much of the period
given model differences.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

VFR conditions likely through the TAF period. Southerly winds will
gust up to around 25 kts through early evening before weakening.
Diurnal SCT/BKN VFR cumulus expected to continue to develop this
afternoon...although coverage of any shower activity is too low to
mention in the TAFS. Winds will begin to increase again by mid to
late Friday morning from the south/southeast.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/Makowski
AVIATION...Makowski



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