Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210853
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

sfc high pressure ridge axis over ern ND early this morning and it
will move east today with southerly return flow over ern ND this
aftn while winds east of the Red River valley will remain light
and variable. Some high clouds moving southeast from Saskatchewan
into the area...thickest in the northern parts of the fcst area.
But enough warming sfc-850 mb to push much of eastern ND into the
upper 70s with lower 70s in the eastern fcst area.

Tonight will see a short wave move east-southeast through Manitoba
and into NW Ontario brushing the Lake of the Woods region. Will
include a low pop for precip for the immediate Lake of the Woods
region after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Monday will see temperatures warm a good 10 degrees from Sunday
with a southerly wind 10-15 kts. Expect plenty of sun as well.
Monday night will start to see some low level moisture work north
and the northeast into west central MN. Will maintain idea of a
slight chc of thunder in this area 06z-12z tue period and then
spread chc into much of nw MN east of the RRV 12z-18z tue as warm
front lifts north.

For the rest of the area on Tuesday...sfc low will move NE thru NW
ND into southern Manitoba and cold front will move east into ern
ND in the aftn and reach far NW MN by 00z wed. Deep layered
moisture will be slow to arrive ahead of the front initially but
will be into the RRV and NW/WC MN late Tuesday aftn and evening.
Timing of front and deeper moisture arrival will determine where
t-storms will form. Also though best bulk shear (35 kts or more)
are a bit behind the front and mostly in southern Manitoba. Thus
looking for a likely brief period of when t-storms can form in
the RRV before front clears the GFK-FAR area with better risk in
eastern fcst area where deeper layered moisture will be present
for a longer period. SPC has the RRV and NW/WC MN in marginal risk
for svr late Tuesday and this seems reasonable. It will be a hot
day with highs mid 80s to lower 90s with thermal ridge setting up
just ahd of front mid aftn nr a Roseau to Grand Forks-Fargo axis.

Wednesday to Saturday...500mb upper low will track along the
International border during the day Wednesday bringing with it
chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few showers may linger
into Thursday as the 00Z EC keeps upper lift back to the west
longer than GFS. Dry Friday with another chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday. Temperatures for the period will be in
the low 70s Wednesday and then mid 70s to near 80 for the rest of
the week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

VFR conditions throughout the period as high clouds move in from
the northwest. Do not think we will get much widespread fog so
left it out of the TAF sites. Winds will become light and variable
then shift around to the southwest by late in the period.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...JK/Riddle
AVIATION...JR



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