000
FXUS63 KFGF 200432
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1132 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Latest HRRR iterations continue to show some high based shower
activity developing toward morning, so no need to make any
changes to the pcpn forecast. Other elements are doing fine as
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Today`s gusty winds will continue to diminish late this afternoon
and into the evening hours as the pressure gradient weakens and we
lose our deep mixing. The nearly stacked low to the north will
continue to drift slowly from NE MB eastward to Hudson Bay tonight
and tomorrow. A weak wave will move east in the westerly flow aloft
across SD and southern ND into MN late tonight. Some strong mid
level theta-e advection will produce a few showers in SE ND and into
west-central MN late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Not
expecting much for rainfall out of this feature. Lows should stay up
a bit in the south...but fall into the low to mid 40s in the north.
After the morning clouds/possible showers in the south tomorrow
morning...clouds will linger across much of the area (except perhaps
the far north) with highs topping out in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Wed-Thu...Persistent warm frontal boundary will lurk south of the
forecast area during Wed/Thu with pcpn shield stretching toward
the extreme southern portion of the region. can`t rule out a bit
of overrunning -ra a little farther north and west for at least
part of Wednesday. Northeast surface flow will dominate both days
leading to a cooler temperature regime, expecting highs in the low
to mid 60s during this time.

Fri-Mon...Action looks to get going during this time period.
Split flow situation with well formed upper trough setting up over
the four corners and remaining quasi stationary for a while early
in the period. Believe this may delay onset of rainy weather for
our region perhaps beyond Friday afternoon. Certainly by Saturday,
though pronounced southerly 500 mb trajectory should be in place
to increase PWATS and eventual SH/TRW. Dry slotting cannot be
ruled out later Saturday into Sunday before closed low/deformation
pcpn rides through to end the weekend. Temperatures to remain in
the 60s over the weekend with overnight lows averaging about 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Some high based showers look to arrive in the KFAR area in the 14z
to 17z time frame. Could be a rumble or two of thunder, but latest
models keep the elevated instability either west or south of KFAR.
Otherwise, just looking at light winds and mid and high level
clouds throughout.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Godon