Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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757
FXUS63 KFGF 060109
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
709 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH BEMIDJI-DETROIT LAKES-FERGUS
FALLS EASTWARD. AN AREA OF MORE ALTOCU ROSEAU-BAUDETTE. WEST OF
THESE AREAS SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR BUT INCREASE IN CIRRUS NOTED
FROM THE WEST. WINDS LIGHT AND ALLOWING TEMPS IN SOME AREAS TO
BOTTOM OUT A BIT LOWER THAN FCST. SUSPECT TEMPS WILL FALL A BIT
MORE THAN STEADY OUT AS WARM ADV INCREASES LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARM TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND STORM SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.

RATHER QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MILD CONDITIONS AND LOW
LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS RISE
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE VALLEY AND WEST THROUGH 00Z SUN. MAX TEMPS
TO BE REALIZED WITH WESTERLY SURGE OF THE SURFACE WINDS MIXING
DOWN WARM AIR ALOFT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FOR
THE VALLEY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WILL HARDEN ANY NEW
SNOWCOVER OVER THE PAST WEEK FROM THE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

AS FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SYSTEM...MODELS HAVE COME
INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF RUNS. THE EC AND
GEM REMAIN THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE 500MB LOW TRACK WHEREAS THE
GFS/NAM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THE TRACK WILL NOT IMPACT WIND
POTENTIAL...JUST SNOW AMOUNTS.

UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECAST BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND SUBSEQUENT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WIND
POTENTIAL WITH MIXING OF 40 TO 50KTS TO AROUND 900MB COMBINED WITH
A STRONG PUSH OF CAA SUNDAY 12Z TO 18Z. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS REINFORCE
THIS IDEA INDICATING EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SFC. AHEAD OF THE CAA THE COLUMN WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
IN E ND AND THE VALLEY TO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/FZRA AND
SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH RESPECT TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...CONFIDENCE DECREASES SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST SE ND AS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE OF
POSSIBILITIES. WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH DVL BSN AND VALLEY WITH
WINTER STORM IN EASTERN ZONES IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z MON. WITH
RESPECT TO SNOWFALL CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE IS AN 80
PERCENT CHC OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES...40 PERCENT CHC OF AT LEAST 4
INCHES AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 6 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE AND EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING NW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE SOME
POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW WITH ANY WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS...ONE
POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY. THE DIFFICULT...LESS CERTAIN PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE TEMPS AS PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE
WARMER AIR TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST WILL DETERMINE THE
MAX AND MIN FOR THE WEEK. CURRENTLY THE COLD DAY APPEARS TO BE
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHS IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...OTHER
DAYS HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S...A BIT COLDER THAN THIS
PAST WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

EXPECTING A MOSTLY VFR FCST THRU SATURDAY. AREA OF STUBBORN MVFR
CIGS NOW JUST CLEARED BEMIDJI BUT WILL PERSIST PARK RAPIDS-DETROIT
LAKES AND FERGUS FALLS INTO THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT
MOSTLY AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
MID CLOUDS SAT AFTN. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION UNDER 10 KTS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 25 KTS SAT AFTN WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE RRV AND DVL BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     NDZ008-016-027-029-030-038-039-049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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