Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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690
FXUS63 KFGF 261752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

PRIMARY CHANGE FOR NOON UPDATE WILL BE SKY ACROSS THE NORTH. FAR
NORTHERN VALLEY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MN HAVE
CLEARED OUT...AND HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER TO REFLECT ACCORDINGLY.
SHORT BLEND TEMP SOLUTION ALSO SHARPENED THE GRADIENT ALONG THE
CLOUD FREE LINE...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND
COOLER TO THE SOUTH. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WX THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT FOR THE STACKED SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHARPENING
POP GRADIENT AND PUSHED NORTHWARD EXTENT SOUTHWARD AND FURTHER
FROM FARGO METROPOLITAN AREA. MODELS FOR THE MOST PART KEEPING
NORTHWARD EXTENT ALONG THE CASS/RICHLAND LINE AND NEW POPS REFLECT
THIS GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

LIGHT SPRINKLES CONTINUE OVER DEVILS LAKE REGION HOWEVER APPEARS
TO BE MID CLOUD EAST OF CRARY AND ALONG HWY 2. WILL CONFINE LOW
POPS TO FAR WESTERN CWA. TEMPS ON TRACK AND NO PLANS FOR
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

PESKY SHRA/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE CONTINUE IN A NARROW BAND ROUGHLY
ALONG HIGHWAY 2. WITH COLUMN DRYING CONTINUING FROM NE-SW STILL
FEEL SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE. DID EXTEND POPS A FEW MORE HOURS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT RESULTING IN RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVEL AS
FAR AS RAIN WITH NEXT SYSTEM.

IN THE NEAR TERM LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES CONTINUE UNDER WEAK RADAR
RETURNS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. DOUBT IF ANY WILL MEASURE
OUT BUT WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN CASE THROUGH THE EARLY AM.
OTHERWISE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE FA GRADUALLY WASHES AS RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RISE
THROUGH THE DAY AS DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN SPREADS GRADUALLY
FROM NE-SW. THERMAL ADVECTION FAIRLY NEUTRAL SO HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HINGE ON HOW QUICK CLOUDS DECREASE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES
LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR N-NE WHERE MORE SOLAR ANTICIPATED.

NEXT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES PROPAGATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. DEVELOPING
RAIN SHIELD EXPANDS NNW ALONG INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE
EASTWARD EXTENT OF ABOVE RAIN SHIELD GRAZES THE FAR SW-S FA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SO MAINTAINED INHERITED POPS. COLUMN
REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE SO BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA. EVEN THOUGH AN EXTENDED POP
PERIOD NOT LOOKING FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN FALL AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BLO AVERAGE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR
SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
EXITING THE 4-CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE NORTHERN MOST SOLUTION...
BRINGING THE UPPER LOW MORE INTO NW NEBRASKA BY 06Z SUN...WHILE THE
CANADIAN HAS THE LOW IN SW NEBRASKA AND THE GFS IN NW KANSAS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
CANADIAN MODEL. FORECAST REFLECTS A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO...AFTER A PLEASANT
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE FOR NICE WEEKEND WEATHER LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST IN
THE NORTH. MONDAY LOOKS PLEASANT AREA-WIDE BASED ON ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT RISING TO THE 60S IN
SOME AREAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR CIGS AT SITES EXCEPT KFAR AND KDVL WHERE IT WILL TAKE A FEW
HOURS TO ERODE MVFR. WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA AREN`T QUITE WORTHY OF A
MENTION AT THIS TIME. SEMI-PERMANENT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS DROPPING OFF BY
00Z OR 03Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...WJB



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